Some reflections on past and future of nonlinear dynamics in economics and finance

This paper offers an overview of the literature on the economic and financial applications of theory of nonlinear dynamics, especially bifurcation theory. After a short introductory discussion of the first nonlinear dynamic models in social sciences and the economic relevance of the zoo of bifurcations and complicated dynamics that such models can generate, we present an overview of the literature on nonlinear dynamic models in the areas of underdevelopment, environmental poverty traps, the management of common goods, industrial organization and financial markets. The review of the literature is enriched by reflections and ideas for future research.     

The two sides of academic research: do basic and applied activities complement each other?

It is generally acknowledged that the cuts in government funding for research implemented in several European countries will induce academic researchers to increase their interaction with non academic entities to promote the acquisition of external funding for research. Indirectly this implies that there will be a shift in the focus of academic scientific activity from basic to applied research via private research contracts and consultancy work. The aim of our paper is to assess the extent of the trade-off between basic research and applied activity in academic research departments. We use data for the universe of Italian academic departments over the period 2006–2011 and estimate whether increased applied activity is substituting or complementing basic research activity. We provide empirical evidence of a strong substitution effect for life sciences departments and, to a lesser extent, for engineering and technology departments, while there does not seem to be evidence of a substitution effect for departments whose scientific activity revolves around basic science.     

Economics of externalities and public policy

In this paper we study a particular case of “multiple” externalities associated to the production of a good/activity, whose external effects can change from positive to negative depending on the level of output (intersecting externalities). To analyze their impact on the public policy we propose a very simple two-agent partial equilibrium model in the technological context of externalities. In a static framework, the centralized solution always implies an optimal policy, which may consist of taxation or subsidization depending on the individual optimum and on the technology parameters. In a dynamic model with local knowledge of the efficiency function and instantaneous output adjustments, such an optimal policy can be structurally stable or unstable. In the latter case, under small changes of the parameters the policy may switch from low taxation/subsidization to high taxation/subsidization or vice versa, or even jump discontinuously from taxation to subsidization or vice versa. Furthermore, the decentralized solution based upon “tradable rights” can be economically equivalent to the centralized solution in the form of taxation policy but the two solutions may be not politically equivalent.

Su di una politica di bonus

Si prende in considerazione una politica di Bonus attuata da una Compagnia di assicurazione e si studia l'andamento della perdita attesa della Compagnia al variare dell'entità del Bonus nei casi in cui:

1. la funzioneL(s), che esprime il livello minimo dell'entità dei sinistri non occultabili all'istantes, sia lineare ins;
2. la funzioneL(s) renda massima la previsione del guadagno di ogni singolo assicurato.

     

Nonlinear economic growth: Some theory and cross-country evidence

This paper aims to test the existence of different growth regimes, that is of different relationships between growth rate and income level. We propose a simple nonlinear growth model and test its empirical implications by estimating Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels. We show that growth is indeed nonlinear: a first phase of slow or zero growth is followed by a take-off and, finally, by a phase of deceleration. We discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the issue of convergence and reversibility of development, in the light of models of structural change and technological diffusion.     

Going Public and the Enrichment of a Supportive Network

Past research on initial public offerings suggests that the reputation of a company positively affects the success of the offering. Success is usually measured in financial terms as if the essence of the operation lay only in the short-term inflow of money. In this paper, we investigate important albeit often neglected implications of going public by combining evidence from a series of preliminary case studies taken from the results of a survey of 57 Italian initial public offerings. Evidence from our research suggests that, besides providing an important inflow of capital, going public may actually improve the reputational and social capital of a company, by increasing its visibility, prestige and perceived trustworthiness. Therefore, going public may be an important way to support entrepreneurial activity, as it may expand and reinforce the network of relationships that offer access to external resources, complementary skills and investment opportunities.     

Organizing the purchasing department for innovation

Innovation is by far one of the most important competitive priorities in the current business context. Companies increasingly rely on their supply base to support their innovation potential. As a consequence, the purchasing department might dramatically affect the firm??s innovation capability. This paper aims to investigate??using a multiple case study approach??how the organizational design of the purchasing department could determine a firm??s capability to foster and manage innovation. Seven highly innovative companies were visited and the structures of their purchasing departments were analyzed. Three different configurations for the purchasing department were identified and described.     

The food neophobia scale and young adults’ intention to eat insect products

In the coming years, the new EU Regulation on Novel Food is likely to facilitate the development of a niche market for insects and insect‐based ingredients in many European countries. In this research, the aim is to explore the relationship between willingness to try (WTT) and behavior of eating insects, where the independent variables are food neophobia, sensory property expectations, and previous consumption. In total, 88 Italian participants took part in the study. The food neophobia scale (FNS) was constructed using 9 of the 10 items from the original FNS, and a Structural Equation Modeling approach was used to test the research hypotheses. The results show that males are more open to trying insects than females, and food neophobia is negatively correlated with the willingness to eat insects. Findings also indicate that the first exposure to insects positively increases consumers’ sensory property expectations. Intention to try is a strong predictor of the behavior of eating insects. People who scored lower on the FNS were more likely to try (intention) and consequently eat insects (behavior). These findings enhance knowledge about factors which could lead to lower levels of negative prejudice and greater willingness to taste edible insects among Western consumers. Finally, some marketing implications are discussed, like the need of information campaigns to emphasize positive sensory attributes of edible insects to increase the WTT this unfamiliar food.     

Unit nonresponse errors in income surveys: a case study

A survey on the economic and social conditions of households in the city of Modena was carried out in 2002 and in 2006 (two waves) by the CAPP (Centre for Analyses of Public Policies). In the first wave of 2002, each designated sampling unit (i.e., the family) had three units as reserves. If the first refused to be interviewed, the interviewer contacted the three reserves, one after the other, until obtaining either one respondent or four non-participant units. At the end of the survey four categories of units were distinguished: interviewees, refusals, noncontacts, and unused reserves. All units were matched with their corresponding record in the databases of the Ministry of Finance of 2002 and the Census of 2001. The resulting data set permitted the analysis of unit or total nonresponses. The distribution of fiscal income showed different shapes for the four categories, implying a selective participation of the families. The interviewees yielded a positive bias of about 600?, holding constant other factors. The selection of the significant factors affecting nonresponse was performed via backward elimination in a logit model and with the lasso method. Participation increased as fiscal income and age increased and by education level (secondary school and university degree), while it decreased among entrepreneurs, independent workers, managers, and medium-to-low skilled workers.