The European monetary system: Crisis and future

This paper examines the immediate and the fundamental causes of the crsis that hit the European Monetary System in September 1992 and August 1993 and the obstacles that European countries face in trying to achieve their ultimate goal of full monetary union, including a single currency and a union-wide central bank by the end of this decade. The conclusion that follows from the paper is that achieving full monetary union in Europe by the end of this decade is certainly possible but not certain. A major recession or other shock affecting asymmetrically more than one large member nation could derail or at least delay the process of monetary union. Although major benefits are expected to flow from monetary union in Europe, even more important are the political benefits that such a union would provide to its members.     

A model of dumping and protectionism in the United States

Zusammenfassung Dumping und Protektionismus in den Vereinigten Staaten-ein Modell. — Der Autor untersucht die Beziehung zwischen Antidumpingma\nahmen und dem neuen Protektionismus, reformuliert und erweitert die Theorie des Dumping und sch?tzt ein Modell mit simultanen Gleichungen, um die Ursachen und Wirkungen von Antidumpingma\nahmen in den Vereinigten Staaten zu überprüfen. Der empirische Test des Modells zeigt, da\ die Durchdringung des amerikanischen Marktes mit Importwaren negativ korreliert ist mit dem Prozentsatz der erfolgreichen Antr?ge auf Antidumpingma\nahmen, aber positiv mit der überbewertung des Dollar und dem Grad an Offenheit der US-Wirtschaft. Die Zahl der registrierten Antidumpingantr?ge steht in direktem Verh?ltnis zum wirtschaftlichen Wachstum der Vereinigten Staaten im Vergleich zu anderen Industriel?ndern, und der Prozentsatz der erfolgreichen Antidumpingantr?ge ist negativ korreliert mit der Handelsbilanz, der H?he des Volkseinkommens und der Anzahl der registrierten Antidumpingantr?ge.

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Résumé Un modèle du dumping et du protectionisme aux Etats-Unis. — Cette étude examine les relations entre l’action anti-dumping et le nouveau protectionisme, revise et étend la théorie du dumping et estime un modèle d’équations simultanées pour examiner les causes et les effets de l’action anti-dumping aux Etats-Unis. Le test empirique du modèle démontre que la pénétration de l’importation dépend (i) de sens inverse du rapport des requêtes anti-dumping déposées, mais couronnées de succès et (ii) de sens positif de la surévaluation du dollar et du degré que l’économie américaine est ouverte. Le nombre des requêtes anti-dumping déposées dépend directement du croissance économique des Etats-Unis en relation aux autres pays industriels. Le rapport des requêtes anti-dumping dépend de sens inverse de la balance commerciale, du niveau du produit domestique et du nombre des requêtes anti-dumping déposées.

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Resumen Un modelo de dumping y proteccionismo para los EE UU. — Este trabajo examina la relatión entre una medida antidumping y el nuevo proteccionismo, reformula y extiende la teoria del antidumping y estima un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas para estudiar las causas y efectos de medidas antidumping en los EE UU. El test empirico del modelo muestra (1) que la penetration con importaciones esta inversamente relacionada con el porcentaje de peticiones antidumping exitosas registradas y afectadas positivamente por la sobrevaluación del dólar y el grado de apertura de la economia de los EE UU, (2) que el numéro de peticiones antidumping registradas esta relacionado directamente con el credimiento de los EE UU relativo al de otros pa?ses industriales, y (3) que el porcentaje de peticiones antidumping exitosas está inversamente relacionado con el balance comercial, el nivel de ingreso nacional real y el núméro de peticiones antidumping registradas.

     

The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round.     

Robustness of Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies with Data Revisions—A Note

Data revisions routinely introduced by the World Bank can lead to significant revisions in empirical results. We show this by re-estimating our aggregate indicator for predicting the 1997 Asian crisis utilizing the 1999 and 2004 updates of the 1996 World Bank data and comparing these results to those we obtained (this Journal, 2000) for predicting the same event using the original, unrevised, 1996 World Bank data. Since most data-gathering organizations routinely revise their data, this may represent a much greater problem for policy makers than might be recognized.     

The economic burden of common adverse events associated with metastatic colorectal cancer treatment in the United States

Aims: Adverse events (AEs) associated with treatments for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) may compromise the course of treatment, impact quality-of-life, and increase healthcare resource utilization. This study assessed the direct healthcare costs of common AEs among mCRC patients in the US.

Methods: Adult mCRC patients treated with chemotherapy or targeted therapies were identified from administrative claims databases (2009–2014). Up to the first three mCRC treatment episodes per patient were considered and categorized as with or without the AE system/organ category during the episode. Total healthcare costs (2014 USD) were measured by treatment episode and reported on a monthly basis. Treatment episodes with the AE category were matched by treatment type and line of treatment to those without the AE category. Adjusted total cost differences were estimated by comparing costs during treatment episodes with vs without the AE category using multivariate regression models; p-values were estimated with bootstrap.

Results: A total of 4158 patients with ≥1 mCRC treatment episode were included (mean age?=?59 years; 58% male; 60% with liver and 14% with lung metastases; 2,261 [54%] with a second and 1,115 [27%] with a third episode). On average, two treatment episodes were observed per patient with an average length of 166 days per episode. Adjusted monthly total cost difference by AE category included hematologic ($1,480), respiratory ($1,253), endocrine/metabolic ($1,213), central nervous system (CNS; $1,136), and cardiovascular ($1,036; all p?Limitations: Claims do not include information on the cause of AEs, and potentially less severe AEs may not have been reported by the physician when billing the medical service. This study aimed to assess the association between costs and AEs and not the causation of AEs by treatment.

Conclusions: The most costly AEs among mCRC patients were hematologic, followed by respiratory, endocrine/metabolic, CNS, and cardiovascular.     

Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

This article identifies six fundamental indicators that might predict a financial crisis similar to the one that affected the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. Our empirical analysis shows that the 1997 Asian crisis could have been predicted. Probit estimation reveals that a small number of common indicators can forecast a financial crisis well. The estimation gives estimates that are robust to either cross-section or panel data. We suggest an aggregate indicator that combines all the individual indicators and calculates the optimal thresholds for the indicators. This aggregate indicator has similar predictive properties and reduces the calculations to determine the probability of crisis.     

Treatment patterns,healthcare resource utilization,and costs in patients with acute myeloid leukemia in commercially insured and Medicare populations

Objective: To describe the setting, duration, and costs of induction and consolidation chemotherapy for adults with newly-diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML), who are candidates for standard induction chemotherapy, in the US.

Methods: Adults newly-diagnosed with AML who received standard induction chemotherapy in an inpatient setting were identified from the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan (2006–2015) and SEER-Medicare (2007–2011) databases. Patients were observed from induction therapy start to the first of hematopoietic stem cell transplant, 180 days after induction discharge, health plan enrollment/data availability end, or death. Induction and consolidation chemotherapy were identified using Diagnosis-Related Group codes (chemotherapy with acute leukemia) or procedure codes for AML chemotherapy administration. AML treatment episode setting (inpatient or outpatient), duration, and costs (2015 USD, payers’ perspective) were described for commercially insured patients and Medicare beneficiaries.

Results: In total, 459 commercially insured patients and 563 Medicare beneficiaries (mean age?=?54 and 66 years; 53% and 54% male; respectively) were identified. For induction therapy, mean costs were $145,189 for commercially insured patients and $85,734 for Medicare beneficiaries, and median inpatient duration was 31 days (both). Following induction, 64% of commercially insured patients and 53% of Medicare beneficiaries had ≥1 consolidation cycle; 75% and 65% of consolidation cycles were in an inpatient setting, respectively. For consolidation cycles, in the inpatient setting, mean costs were $28,137 for commercially insured patients and $28,843 for Medicare beneficiaries, median cycle duration was 6 days (both); in the outpatient setting, mean costs were $11,271 for commercially insured patients and $5,803 Medicare beneficiaries, median duration was 5 days (both).

Limitations: Granular information on chemotherapy type administered was unavailable.

Conclusions: This is the first exploratory study providing a complete picture of recent AML treatment patterns and management costs among commercially insured patients and Medicare beneficiaries. There is substantial heterogeneity in the management and costs of AML.