The political economy of financial reform: How robust are huang's findings?

Using new data on financial liberalization taken from Abiad et al. (2008, IMF Working Papers, No. 08/266) for 62 countries over the period 1975–2005, we show that some of the main findings of Huang's (2009, Journal of Applied Econometrics 24 : 1207–1213) replication study on the drivers of financial liberalization are not robust. Major changes concern the effect of democracy on financial reform and the supposed relationship between the desired level of financial liberalization and a country's per capita income. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The commercial contribution of clinical studies for pharmaceutical drugs

Pharmaceutical drugs are rigorously evaluated through clinical studies. The commercial consequences of such clinical studies, both to the promotion for and sales of drugs, are largely under-researched. The present study answers the following research questions: 1) How does the evolution of clinical study outcomes affect product sales? 2) How does the evolution of clinical study outcomes affect a firm's promotion expenditures to physicians and consumers? 3) Is the assessment of the responsiveness of sales to promotion expenditures biased when the analyst omits the role of clinical studies? We summarize a comprehensive body of clinical studies in three metrics: valence, dispersion, and volume. We extend the literature with the following findings. A higher valence and volume of clinical studies (i.e., more positive and larger number of studies) increase sales. A higher valence of clinical studies increases spending on both direct-to-consumer advertising and direct-to-physician promotion. A higher dispersion among clinical studies decreases spending on direct-to-consumer advertising. A higher volume of clinical studies has no effect on direct-to-physician promotion, but decreases direct-to-consumer advertising. Furthermore, the results show that omitting these metrics from a market response model leads to an overestimation of the responsiveness of sales to promotion expenditures.     

A random coefficients mixture hidden Markov model for marketing research

The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a framework to model the time-varying effects of marketing mix variables. When employed in a panel data context, it is important to properly account for unobserved heterogeneity across individuals. We propose a new random coefficients mixture HMM (RCMHMM) that allows for flexible patterns of unobserved heterogeneity in both the state-dependent and transition parameters. The RCMHMM nests all HMMs found in the marketing literature. Results of two simulation studies demonstrate that 1) averaging across a large number of different data generating processes, the RCMHMM outperforms all its nested versions using both in-sample and out-of-sample performance and 2) the RCMHMM is more robust than its nested versions when underlying model assumptions are violated. In addition, we apply the RCMHMM to an empirical application where we examine the effectiveness of in-game promotions in increasing the short-term demand for Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. We find that the effectiveness of four promotional categories varies over the course of the season and across teams and that the RCMHMM performs best.     

To govern is to foresee: An exploratory study into the relationship between futures research and strategy and policy processes at Dutch ministries

The Dutch government has to operate in an extremely complex environment with various actors who have different interests, in a time that can be considered highly uncertain. Although this makes the usefulness of and need for futures research evident, the question remains how the Dutch government uses futures research in its strategy and policy formation process. This study indicates that the use of futures research by Dutch government ministries has evolved over time, although the overwhelming importance of the short term, the difficult structural organization of futures research and a relative lack of relevant expertise at the ministries limit the impact of futures research on strategy and policy.