Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade

World trade evolves at two margins. Where a bilateral trading relationship already exists it may increase through time (intensive margin). But trade may also increase if a trading bilateral relationship is newly established between countries that have not traded with each other in the past (extensive margin). We provide an empirical dissection of post–World War II growth in manufacturing world trade along these two margins. We propose a “corner-solutions version” of the gravity model to explain movements on both margins. A Tobit estimation of this model resolves the so-called “distance puzzle”. It also finds more convincing evidence than recent literature that WTO-membership enhances trade. JEL no. F12, F15     

Dynamic Panel Data Evidence on the Trade-Income Relation

This paper revisits the relationship between a country’s openness and its per capita income. Building on Frankel and Romer, it argues that a dynamic econometric specification similar to the ones used in empirical growth studies better fits the theoretical literature and also resolves some otherwise unresolved inconsistencies. The preferred econometric method is Blundell and Bond’s system-GMM estimator, which allows dealing with measurement error, weak instruments, and time-invariant country-specific effects. The findings confirm the existence of a strong effect of trade on income but fail to find evidence for trade as an independent factor of divergence. JEL no. F43, O40     

Modelling the Extensive Margin of World Trade: New Evidence on GATT and WTO Membership

Recent literature has argued that, contrary to the results of a seminal paper by Rose (2004), General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) membership does promote bilateral trade, at least for developed economies and if membership includes non‐formal compliance. We review the literature to identify open issues. We then develop a simple extension of the gravity model that gives rise to an extensive country margin of trade separating positive trade from zero trade country pairs. The model is used to identify WTO membership effects at both the intensive and the extensive margins. Empirical estimation of this model, based on Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood methods with exporter and importer fixed effects, allows us to readdress the empirical issue of whether GATT/WTO membership does or does not promote trade. We find that GATT membership was successful on the extensive margin of world trade but not on the intensive margin. For the recent WTO episode (1995–2008), we find consistent and robust evidence for a substantial trade‐creating role of membership which is driven primarily by the intensive margin. WTO membership results in higher bilateral trade of about 40 per cent.     

Labour‐market institutions and their impact on trade partners: A quantitative analysis

Recent theoretical literature studies how labour market reforms in one country can affect labour market outcomes in other countries, thereby rationalizing widely held policy beliefs and empirical evidence. But what is the quantitative relevance of such spillover effects? This paper combines two recent workhorse models: the canonical search‐and‐matching framework and the heterogeneous firms international trade model. Qualitatively, the framework confirms that labour market reforms in one country benefit its trading partners, replicating the stylized facts. However, when wages are bargained flexibly, the model quantitatively underestimates the correlation of structural unemployment rates across countries. Introducing some degree of real wage rigidity remedies this problem.     

Dealing with Donald Trump

The logic for multilateral cooperation in trade and beyond becomes stronger, not weaker. A new governance forum will emerge, where negotiating will take place in country clubs instead of among members at the WTO.However, by breaking protocol, the US president has gained substantial bargaining power, because he puts himself in a situation in which he actually has to implement his threats if the negotiation counterparts do not confirm in order to save face on the domestic and global stages.     

Brexit: A Hard-but-Smart Strategy and Its Consequences

Intereconomics - Would the United Kingdom really apply high EU external tariffs in the case of a hard Brexit and carry out extensive physical checks at their border? Recent developments in London...     

IMMIGRATION AND NATIVE WELFARE*

This article unifies two approaches for identifying the welfare and wage effects of immigration, one emphasizing the immigration surplus, the other stressing a potential welfare loss due to a terms‐of‐trade effect. We decompose the native welfare effect into a standard complementarity effect, augmented by a Stolper–Samuelson effect, and a terms‐of‐trade effect. We illustrate the welfare and wage effects of endogenous goods prices in a stylized‐specific factors model. Finally, we calibrate this model to a generic OECD economy and provide simulation results. The key insight is that endogenous goods prices play a quantitatively important role, sometimes even overturning received results.     

Globalisation and the Spatial Concentration of Production

(1240) Friederike Niepmann and Gabriel J. Felbermayr In new trade theory (NTT) models, freer trade tends to increase the spatial concentration of industrial production across countries. While nations with large home markets and central geographical location become increasingly attractive business locations, small peripheral countries gradually deindustrialise. Using data for 26 industries, 20 OECD countries and 20 years, we investigate the empirical validity of this claim. Separating out the role of home market size from geographical factors, and using various panel methods, we find robust evidence in line with theory. Freer trade has indeed magnified the importance of domestic demand and geographical location for the pattern of industrial production across the globe and has therefore exacerbated spatial disparities.     

Trade Intermediation and the Organization of Exporters

Empirical papers show that successful exporting firms either use unaffiliated foreign trade intermediaries or own foreign wholesale subsidiaries. However, conventional trade theory models assume that producers can directly access foreign consumers. We introduce intermediaries in an international trade model where producers differ with respect to productivity as well as regarding their varieties' perceived quality and tradability. Trade intermediation is prone to frictions owing to the absence of enforceable cross‐country contracts while own wholesale subsidiaries require additional capital investment. The sorting pattern of firms depends on their degree of competitive advantage; the equilibrium prevalence of intermediation in the industry depends negatively on the heterogeneity among producers, and the market‐specificity of goods, and positively on expropriation risk. Using sectoral US export data by destination country, we confirm the empirical validity of these predictions.     

Restrictive immigration policy in Germany: pains and gains foregone?

Many European countries restrict immigration from new EU member countries. The rationale is to avoid adverse wage and employment effects. We quantify these effects for Germany. Following Borjas (in Q J Econ CXVIII(4):1335–1374, 2003), we estimate a structural model of labor demand, based on elasticities of substitution between workers with different experience levels and education. We allow for unemployment which we model in a price-wage-setting framework. Simulating a counterfactual scenario without restrictions for migration from new EU members countries in Germany, we find moderate negative wage and employment effects for incumbent foreigners, but positive effects for natives. Our results indicate that for the native German population as a whole the immigration restrictions are not welfare enhancing.