The Economic Effects of the Soccer World Cup 2006 in Germany with Regard to Different Financing

This paper presents some results using the sport-economic simulation model SPORT. This model is based on a sport-specific input-output table for the year 1993, which has been integrated into the German INFORGE model. The performance of this model founded on the INFORUM philosophy. The results illustrate the importance of modelling sport-economic activities in deep detail, especially the integration of the system of national accounts. In addition, the results also show that it is possible to calculate the macroeconomic effects of the soccer World Cup, which may perhaps be hosted by Germany in 2006, with regard to the different financing of necessary extensions of public sports infrasfructure. Under favourable conditions-independent of the type of financing of these necessary investments-the staging of the soccer World Cup positively influences income and employment. Such calculations allow the decision-maker to estimate the opportunity costs of their decisions and can be the basis for an extended cost-benefit analysis.     

Diagnose Mammakarzinom

Zusammenfassung  Früh erkannt, ist Brustkrebs fast immer heilbar — 57.000 Frauen in Deutschland werden j?hrlich mit der Diagnose Brustkrebs konfrontiert, 18.000 Betroffene sterben jedes Jahr daran. Mammografie-Screening ist derzeit die einzige fl?chendeckend durchführbare Methode, die die Brustkrebssterblichkeit bei Frauen nach den Wechseljahren nachweislich senken kann. Welche Vorteile und Risiken bietet das Screeningverfahren?     

Money and inflation in Germany: A cointegration analysis

This paper analyses the relation between money and inflation in Germany in a cost-push/demand-pull model of an open small economy by means of cointegration methods. The full-information-maximum-likelihood method of Johansen as well as structural methods are applied to datasubsets and the full data set. The focus of the paper is on tests for overidentifying restrictions and for weak and strong exogeneity within these data sets. The result of the paper is that the money stock, the price level and gross national product are endogenous whereas the interest rate and the real import price are both weakly and strongly exogenous. By means of the price cointegration relation we illustrate how monetary targeting should react to imported inflation.     

Towards the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive?: Lessons learned from water quality simulations in an agricultural watershed

The main objective of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is the achievement of a good ecological and chemical status of the water environment (water bodies). This status corresponds to the limit value of Germany's Working Group of the Federal States on Water Problems Issues (LAWA) for water quality class II (3 mg/l total nitrogen). The rivers in the intensively cropped Upper Ems River basin (northwestern Germany) show total nitrogen concentrations in excess of 5–10 mg/l. Hence, the objective of our study was to find a land use and land management scenario that would reduce the total nitrogen concentration to meet the WFD requirements for good ecological and chemical status. We developed consecutive land use and management scenarios on the basis of policy instruments such as the support of agro-environmental measures by Common Agricultural Policy and regional landscape development programs. The model simulations were done by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results of SWAT scenario calculations showed that drastic measures, which are unrealistic from a socio-economic point of view, would be needed to achieve the water quality target in the basin (reduction of arable land from 77.2% to 46% [13% organic farming], increase of pasture from 4% to 15%, afforestation from 10% to 21%, increase of protected wetlands from 0% to 9%, etc.). The example shows additionally that the achievement of the WFD targets is only possible with a consideration of regional landscape and land use distinctions. A related problem yet to be addressed is the general lack of measured water quality data with which to calibrate and validate water quality models such as SWAT. This adds considerable uncertainty to already complicated and uncertainty situations. Thus, improved strategies for water quality monitoring, and data accessibility must be established.