苏州工业园区建设世界一流高科技园区的战略对策研究

近年来,苏州工业园区大力实施创新驱动发展战略,在打造世界一流高科技园区建设方面取得明显成效。文章在阐述园区当前发展现状的基础上,剖析园区创新发展存在的薄弱环节,进而提出建设世界一流高科技园区的战略对策。     

全面预算管理信息化系统建设

现阶段,我国企业已经初步完成了公司治理目标,建立了内容相对完整的内部控制管理体系.为了进一步推进业财融合发展,大部分企业研发设计了与企业业务管理、财务管理相匹配的全面预算管理.并且,在新时期的数字化建设中,增强了全面预算管理信息化系统建设.本文以此为出发点,选取全面预算管理信息化系统建设作为研究题目,概述了全面预算管理的重要性.并以此为基础,分别从权责机制、互联网思维、信息化技术三个层面,进行了具体讨论.     

国有风险资本与企业融资约束: 如愿以偿还是事与愿违?

我国国有风险资本是否实现了设立之初的目标,即是否纾解了企业融资困难呢?文章基于上市企业微观数据和手动采集的国有风险资本数据对此进行了系统研究.实证结果稳健地显示,国有风险资本可有效缓解企业后续融资约束,我国政府参与风险投资活动是有效的.进一步地,高持股比例、多联合投资、高政治层级的国有风险资本对受资助企业融资约束的缓解作用更强;且国有风险资本对经济欠发达、低制度质量环境下的企业、面临高环境不确定性和高竞争程度企业、民营企业、成长期与动荡期企业能产生更大的影响.机制检验表明,国有风险资本既能通过认证作用显著降低企业信息不对称程度,又能发挥政治关联的资源效应,包括显著促进银企关系和企业的商业信贷获取能力,并提升企业获得政府补贴的水平,从而减轻企业资金负担,缓解其融资约束.经济后果分析表明,国有风险资本能显著降低企业外部融资的股权资金成本和债务资金成本,帮助改善企业融资贵的难题,而且国有风险资本有助于企业在创新和经营方面的良性发展.但国有风险资本并未起到有效监督作用,不能缓解企业代理问题,尤其是会导致第一类代理成本的明显提高,而高管薪酬提升是其中的重要原因.据此,文章认为在未来的国有风险资本发展中,要把握"政府角色"介入的尺度,完善国有风险资本对企业的监督管理机制.同时适当兼顾各地区发展不平衡的情况,对中西部地区的国有风险资本发展提供适当且必要的帮助,以促进国有风险资本在新时期的长足发展.     

增信服务还是腐蚀效应:论金融科技等新兴产业发展过程中的风险信号

提出行业性风险暴发的"腐蚀效应"理论,即存在着一种特殊的行业风险暴发过程:行业中各个企业的倒闭是沿着企业的资质链从低到高的顺序发生的.该过程的存在得到了数据回归证实.对于科技金融等新兴行业,警惕和积极防范腐蚀效应,对防范行业性风险具有重要意义.对于客户信任高度依赖的新兴行业,如金融科技等,最容易出现腐蚀效应.因此,在一度高速膨胀的网络贷款领域出现腐蚀效应具有一定必然性."腐蚀效应"的存在也否定了当前把网络贷款行业大面积爆雷的原因归咎于其开展"增信服务"的普遍观点,真正引发风险的原因是网络贷款行业中的企业资质参差不齐和无序竞争造成的无谓成本的大幅增加.从政府对行业的管理视角来看,在促进行业发展时不忘记防范风险十分重要.这在实质上是对制度-制度接口的设计问题.因此应当以制度设计理论来指导防范风险政策的制定,才能取得更好的效果.     

Childhood adversity and the propensity for entrepreneurship: A quasi-experimental study of the Great Chinese Famine

Studies on the determinants of entrepreneurship emphasize that challenged adults tend to become entrepreneurs. However, research has not addressed the childhood origins surrounding the propensity for entrepreneurship. This article links childhood adversity to the propensity of individuals to become migrant entrepreneurs later in life. We test hypotheses derived from this theory in the context of whether, and when, children who survived the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–1961 became migrant entrepreneurs. Results strongly indicate that those who survived greater hardship during the Famine are more likely to become entrepreneurs, especially when they were younger during the famine years. We also find that being younger at the time of migration increased the likelihood of becoming entrepreneurs in their new locale. Overall, this study casts light on why, how and when childhood adversity shapes the propensity for entrepreneurship.     

The Impact of Public Expenditure and International Trade on Agricultural Productivity in China

The “industry nurturing agriculture” reforms and World Trade Organization accession led to dramatic growth in public expenditure and international trade in China’s agricultural sector. This article aims to estimate the effects of public expenditure and trade on agricultural productivity in China for 2004–2015. A semi-parametric production function with shape constraints is introduced to derive more accurate productivity before the productivity determinants are analyzed with an emphasis on public expenditure and trade. The empirical result shows that public expenditure and exports can effectively improve agricultural productivity, while imports have no significant effects. Policy implications are discussed in the context of supply-side reforms.     

EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE OF GARCH MODELS WITH HEAVY‐TAILED INNOVATIONS

We introduce a new type of heavy‐tailed distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution (NRIG), to the GARCH and Glosten‐Jagannathan‐Runkle (1993) GARCH models, and compare its empirical performance with two other popular types of heavy‐tailed distribution, the Student's t distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG), using a variety of asset return series. Our results illustrate that there is no overwhelmingly dominant distribution in fitting the data under the GARCH framework, although the NRIG distribution performs slightly better than the other two types of distribution. For market indexes series, it is important to introduce both GJR‐terms and the NRIG distribution to improve the models’ performance, but it is ambiguous for individual stock prices series. Our results also show the GJR‐GARCH NRIG model has practical advantages in quantitative risk management. Finally, the convergence of numerical solutions in maximum‐likelihood estimation of GARCH and GJR‐GARCH models with the three types of heavy‐tailed distribution is investigated.     

Social media affordances in entry‐level employees’ socialization: employee agency in the management of their professional impressions and vulnerability during early stages of socialization

This study examined how entry‐level employees interacted with social media during three stages of organizational socialization. They navigated between four different media affordances (persistence, editability, visibility, and association) while experiencing them as both enabling and constraining in different socialization stages. Qualitative interview data analysis revealed during anticipatory socialization, job applicants realized visibility and persistence in relation to institutional and individualized socialization. During encounter, new employees managed personal and professional life boundaries carefully against the association and visibility affordances. Although some participants used both public and enterprise social media for obtaining job‐related information and understanding coworkers and company culture, during metamorphosis, most interviewees adopted passive information seeking strategies and experienced a paradoxical tension between the enabling and constraining affordances of social media. Findings are discussed with regards to employees’ exertion of agency in managing their professional impressions and coping with high levels of uncertainty and vulnerability during early stages of socialization.     

容量受限条件下的古镇产品开发策略应用研究 ——以重庆巫溪宁厂古镇为例

本文通过宁厂古镇的规划实例,通过挖掘古镇三大核心价值载体,探索性提出小容量古镇开发的商业模式,即以"一价全包"的新型住宿+游乐+体验为核心;在产品定位上,区别现有的大众观光型古镇,设计了面向中高端市场的度假型古镇产品,并在进行潜在客源市场测试后,进行了产品修正.     

工业体系和民营企业兴起——基于252家中国最大民营制造业企业的经验研究

主流经济学家把改革开放后民营企业的大规模兴起，主要归因为市场经济条件下发挥企业家精神和遵循比较优势的必然结果。但是这无法解释为什么民营企业在兴起之初就广泛和快速地进入到各个工业，尤其是技术和资本密集型工业。基于中国工业史和252家中国最大民营制造业企业创业发展史的历史证据，文章找回"工业体系"这一被主流所忽略的重大历史现象和学术概念，从而首次提出一种理解中国民营企业发展独特性的结构性解释。文章发现：从计划经济时期继承而来的门类齐全和独立完整的工业体系，是解释民营企业创业和发展独特性的关键变量；已有的由国有企业和科研院所组成的工业体系，从市场机会、技术能力和组织资源等方面塑造了民营企业的创业选择和发展路径。所以，中国民营企业的快速发展不是仅凭自由市场就会自动出现的普遍现象，而是在市场条件下充分利用工业体系提供的技术和市场条件才得以出现的特殊现象。