The Law of Primogeniture and the Transition from Landed Aristocracy to Industrial Democracy

We study the connection between inheritance systems and the historical evolution of the relationship between a society’s economic structure and its political system, with a focus on Europe from feudal times. The model predicts that, in an early agrarian phase, aristocratic political systems prevail, while democracies tend to emerge with industrialization. At the same time, as indivisible landed estates are replaced by capital as the primary source of wealth, the inheritance system evolves endogenously from primogeniture to partition. The dynamics of output, distribution, class structure and political participation are in turn reinforced by the system of intergenerational wealth transmission, with primogeniture tending to concentration and partition to equalization. “But the law of inheritance was the last step to equality.” Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America (1835).     

On a variational formulation used in credit risk modeling

We consider the credit risk model of Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001). According to this model, the price of a defaultable bond can be efficiently computed using a variational formulation that consists of an integral relation and a Volterra integral equation. In Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001) this integral equation is justified by a probabilistic intuition, but is not proven formally. In this paper we analytically derive the variational formulation used in Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001). This analysis allows to give a correct characterization of the solution of the integral equation. Furthermore the approach proposed in this paper could also be employed for other models of credit risk.     

Self-help Groups and Income Generation in the Informal Settlements of Nairobi

The aim of this paper is to understand the functioning and thescope of self-help groups in the informal settlements of urbanareas as a means of generating income for poor households. Ituses a unique data set collected by the author in 1999 surveyingall individual group members from several informal settlementsin Nairobi. It studies the individual determinants of earningswithin groups and relates group composition to various indicatorsof group functioning. Sex, age and ethnic identity are amongthe most important determinants of individual reliance on groupincome and of access to group loans. Heterogeneity in earningsamong members is shown to reduce their ability to borrow fromthe group as a whole but not from each other. The impact ofethnic and other forms of heterogeneity on the division of labour,choice of compensation schemes, sanctioning technology and recruitmentcriteria is also described.     

The long breadth of cities: revisiting worldwide urbanization patterns, 1950–2030

ABSTRACT

A comparative analysis of population dynamics worldwide contributes to profile distinctive demographic and economic trajectories of urban growth, discriminating processes of settlement concentration or dispersion under sequential cycles of urbanization. However, a wide-ranging characterization of urban cycles based on demographic dynamics worldwide is still missing. The present work is aimed at filling such a gap analysing long-term changes (1950–2030) in annual population growth rate of 1691 urban agglomerations with more than 300,000 inhabitants in 74 world countries. Results of this study indicate that metropolitan growth worldwide was associated with largely variable rates of population growth, highly positive before 2000 and progressively reducing over recent decades. Despite important differences at continental (and country) scale, demographic expansion of urban agglomerations showed two contrasting phases with a break point in the 1980s denoting a progressive reduction in spatial heterogeneity of population growth rates and a moderate slowdown in demographic dynamics. Intensity of urban expansion and spatial heterogeneity in population growth rates across metropolitan agglomerations evidences a trade-off between fast and slow demographic dynamics. These findings can be better understood to support theories of sequential city growth, making a suitable contribution to policy making, especially in countries where urban population is expanding more rapidly.     

Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach

Assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is generally considered as the benchmark nowcast by macroeconomists. In this paper, we put forward an alternative approach to provide monthly nowcasts of the annual global growth rate. Our approach builds on a Factor‐Augmented MIxed DAta Sampling (FA‐MIDAS) model that enables: (i) to account for a large monthly database including various countries and sectors of the global economy and (ii) to nowcast a low‐frequency macroeconomic variable using higher frequency information. Pseudo‐real‐time results over the period 2010–16 show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth on a monthly basis.     

EXPLAINING DIFFERENCES IN EFFICIENCY: A META‐STUDY ON LOCAL GOVERNMENT LITERATURE

This paper reviews the literature on local government efficiency by meta‐reviewing 360 observations retrieved from 54 papers published from 1993 to 2016. The meta‐regression is based on a random‐effects model estimated with the two‐step random‐effects maximum likelihood (REML) technique proposed by Gallet and Doucouliagos. Results indicate that the study design matters when estimating a frontier in local government. We find that studies focusing on technical efficiency provide higher efficiency scores than works evaluating cost efficiency. The same applies when using panel data instead of cross‐section data. Interestingly, studies that use the Free Disposal Hull (FDH) approach yield, on average, higher efficiency scores than papers employing the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, thereby suggesting that in this literature the convexity hypothesis of the production set is a matter. Finally, the efficiency of local government increases with the level of development of the analysed countries and is positively related to the national integrity of the legal system. The opposite holds when considering the corruption.     

Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach

In this paper, we analyze macro-financial linkages in the euro area by implementing an innovative factor-augmented probit model estimated using a large database. In particular, our model specification enables the identification of the leading influence of financial variables on euro area business cycles, in addition to the coincident information conveyed by standard macroeconomic variables. We also point out that dynamic factor models lead to more accurate replication of business cycles than static ones.     

Automobile quality choice under pollution control regulation

In this paper, we develop a modified quality choice model to study the effects of various mobile-source air pollution control regulations. We have a single producer that supplies a fixed number of car types (two) but faces a spectrum of consumers differing in their valuation of car quality. The car manufacturer chooses the quality levels of the two car types as well as the sales mix between the two types and the size of the market it wishes to supply. By endogenizing both the sales mix and the market size, while still allowing quality to be a choice variable, we are able to more completely analyze the impact of any car pollution control regulation. Existing studies of this impact either focus on the model line adjustment response (shifts in the quality array) or on the price adjustment response (changes in the sales mix and market size). In allowing for both the model line and the price adjustment options, we find that the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standard is unambiguously welfare superior to the low-emission vehicle quantity constraint (LEV) and zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) programs. We also show that the effects of the CAFE standard are not equivalent to those of a fuel tax, as previously found, and that, for a given car pollution target, the former is preferred to the latter.      

New Evidence on Export Price Elasticity from China and Six OECD Countries

This paper provides new evidence on export price elasticities by analyzing the cases of China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and the USA over the period 1990–2012. Estimates have been made using panel data techniques for non‐stationary data. After demonstrating that long‐run relationships are stable to any structural break, it is found that exports are significantly determined by foreign demand, with long‐run income elasticity significantly higher than unity for China, Japan, Germany, the UK and the USA. Conversely, exports are price inelastic for most of the countries in the sample, in both the long run and the short run. The exception is France, whose export price elasticity is lower (higher) than unity in the short run (long run).