Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

如何计算认股权证的资本成本

认股权证作为一种长期资金的筹资方式 ,其资本成本必须予以考虑。但是使用传统资本成本计算方法不能反映其真实成本。本文尝试使用B -S和CAPM模型来计算其资本成本 ,并用实例说明     

灌区配套与节水改造的设计体会

伊犁河流域现有灌溉面积678万亩。其中列入国家级大型灌区的有5个,现有灌溉面积为424万亩,在工程建设中的主要设计体会有：制定经济合理的规划设计方案,设计遵循因地制宜、统筹兼顾的原则,建筑物设计新颖别致、运行方便,尽量利用原有结构改建、降低工程造价,因地制宜规划设计渠道,为高寒地区湿陷性黄土地带渠道建设总结经验。     

长三角区域行政合作构想

目前,长三角区域行政合作的发展陷入一系列困境,但是泛珠三角区域行政合作却取得很大成功。借鉴其成功的经验与启示,本文提出坚持共享区域合作成果,制定区域合作规范,建立区域合作机制,成立区域合作机构,重新规划区域行政布局等构想来促进长三角区域行政合作。     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between the hedge ratio and hedging horizon: A simultaneous estimation of the short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios

This article analyzes the effects of the length of hedging horizon on the optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness using 9 different hedging horizons and 25 different commodities. We discuss the concept of short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios and propose a technique to simultaneously estimate them. The empirical results indicate that the short‐run hedge ratios are significantly less than 1 and increase with the length of hedging horizon. We also find that hedging effectiveness increases with the length of hedging horizon. However, the long‐run hedge ratio is found to be close to the naïve hedge ratio of unity. This implies that, if the hedging horizon is long, then the naïve hedge ratio is close to the optimum hedge ratio. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:359–386, 2004     

图书馆跨世纪人才素质培养浅谈

阐述了图书馆跨世纪人才的素质及其培养措施，并指出其有利’I-在教育事业发展中起到推动作用。     

Looking for contagion in currency futures markets

This article tests whether there are pure contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities among British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc futures markets during the 1992 ERM crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals. The empirical results indicate that overall there are no mean spillovers among those futures markets, but they are detected during the crisis period. That is, past return shocks originating in any one of the four markets have no impact on the other three markets during the entire sample period, suggesting that these markets are weak‐form efficient. However, this weak‐form market efficiency fails to hold during the market turmoil, especially for British pound and Swiss franc, and the sources of contagion‐in‐mean effects are mainly due to the return shocks originating in three European currency futures markets. As for the contagion‐in‐volatility, it is detected for British pound only because its conditional volatility is influenced by the negative volatility shocks from Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc, with Deutsche mark playing the dominant role in generating these shocks. JEL Classifications: C32; F31; G12. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:957–988, 2003     

长白山区发展效益农业的对策

本文在分析长白山区资源优势和生态环境特征的基础上，明确了发展生态环保型效益农业的基本思路和主导产业，提出了实施生态环保型效益农业的对策。     

农村经济的“第二个飞跃”与农用土地制度改革

土地制度的安排与改革决定着农村经济发展的前程。我国农业的改革和发展,要有两个飞跃:第一个是实行以家庭联产承包经营为主的责任制;第二个是发展适度的规模经营,发展合作经济。现行土地制度制约着第二个飞跃的实现,需要调整和完善。土地私有化不是我国土地制度改革的方向。土地制度改革在于适应现代农业建设的需要,构建农地财产权新的框架,以利于农业产业化经营,发展多种形式的适度规模经营。     

在我国利率市场化改革中金融约束思想的运用

利率市场化是指由资金市场的供求关系来决定利率水平，政府放弃对利率的直接行政干预，作为一项宏观金融制度的变迁，必然会引起社会经济结构的重新整合和不同利益集团的利益重构，在带来巨大收益的同时，也具有极大的社会成本。根据经济人假设，利率市场化能否进行，主要取决于现行利率体制与改革后市场化利率体制之间收益与成本的差额比较。假定R1、C1、R2、C2分别代表现行利率体制与改革后市场化利率体制的收益和成本，则利率市场化能否进行的必要条件是（R2—C2）—（R1—C1）〉0，即利率市场化后的纯收益优于非利率市场化的纯收益。