Entry, Competitiveness and Exports: Evidence from the Indian Firm Data

This paper attempts to evaluate the effects of industrial de-licensing of 1991 and WTO-induced tariff-reforms of 1995 on domestic competitiveness and export performances of the Indian manufacturing during the post-1991. Unlike existing empirical studies not backed by theoretical underpinnings, the paper has been founded on an open-economy-oligopoly-model framework. The paper develops an econometric method of estimating the output from data on sales of the firms, thereby estimating the firms?? marginal cost, which is conducive for the entire empirical analysis with a unified set of firm data. Using firm level data for 14 sectors for the period 1990?C2008, it is observed that there has been an increase in the number of firms resulting in a fall in the concentration ratio and elasticity of demand at the point of equilibrium is generally less than unity and is declining over-time. The panel regression results of increasing exports by bigger firms also conforms the theoretical predictions.     

Temporary components of stock returns: What do the data tell us?

Within the past few years several articles have suggested thatreturns on large equity portfolios may contain a significantpredictable component at horizons 3 to 6 years. Subsequently,the tests used in these analyses have been criticized (appropriately)for having widely misunderstood size and power, rendering theconclusions inappropriate. This criticism however has not focusedon the data, it addressed the properties of the tests. In thisarticle we adopt a subjectivist analysis - treating the dataas fixed - to ascertain whether the data have anything to sayabout the permanent/temporary decomposition. The data speakclearly and they tell us that for all intents and purposes,stock prices follow a random walk.     

Forecasting stock-return variance: toward an understanding of stochastic implied volatilities

We examine the behavior of measured variances from the optionsmarket and the underlying stock market. Under the joint hypothesesthat markets are informationally efficient and that option pricesare explained by a particular asset pricing model, forecastsfrom time-series models of the stock return process should nothave predictive content given the market forecast as embodiedin option prices. Both in-sample and out-of-sample tests suggestthat this hypothesis can be rejected. Using simulations, weshow that biases inherent in the procedure we use to imply variancescannot explain this result. Thus, we provide evidence inconsistentwith the orthogonality restrictions of option pricing modelsthat assume that variance risk is unpriced. These results alsohave implications for optimum variance forecast rules.