Evo Morales and the MST in Bolivia: Continuities and Discontinuities in Agrarian Reform

There is a widespread understanding in critical scholarly literature that the government of Evo Morales is fundamentally challenging the neoliberal order in Bolivia. The empirical record of Morales' first five years in office, however, illustrates significant neoliberal continuities in the country's political economy. At the same time, the most important social movements that resisted neoliberalism prior to Morales' election have been considerably demobilized in its wake. This gives rise to the critique that the Morales government has merely implemented a more politically stable version of the model of accumulation it inherited. This paper draws on recent field research in Bolivia to make a contribution to this broader research agenda on reconstituted neoliberalism. Our focus is twofold. On the one hand, the paper examines the continuities of agrarian class relations from the INRA law at the height of neoliberalism in 1996 to the various agrarian reform initiatives introduced since Morales assumed office in 2006. On the other hand, the paper traces the mobilization of the Bolivian Landless Peasants' Movement (MST) in response to the failure of the 1996 neoliberal agrarian reform, followed by the movement's demobilization after Morales' 2006 agrarian reform initiative. The paper explores this demobilization in the context of agrarian relations that have remained largely unchanged in the same period. Finally, the paper draws on recent reflections by MST members who, to varying degrees, seem to be growing critical of Morales' failure to fundamentally alter rural class relations, and the difficulties of remobilizing their movement at the present time.     

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF DISTRIBUTIVE POLICIES ON THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY USING AN SCGE MODEL

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic policies on the Brazilian economy. We present a two-sector, open-economy, Structuralist Computable General Equilibrium model that distinguishes among three economic classes and assumes no financial sector. The Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil in 2006 serves as a benchmark for our model. We compare the medium-run effects of five experiments: an income transfer towards formal workers, a transfer to informal labour, an investment shock, an exchange rate depreciation, and a policy mix that combines (exchange rate) depreciation with income transfer towards modern (sector) workers. The policy measures reinforce each other in terms of their potential to enhance growth. Our findings underscore the importance of redistributive policies to foster economic expansion.     

The "New" Stability and Growth Pact: More Flexible,Less Stupid?

The doubts and criticisms with regard to the fiscal discipline imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) have been many and varied, and the SGP was revised as a result. The following paper evaluates the changes contained in the "new" SGP by considering the properties for ideal fiscal rules put forward by Kopits and Symansky. The analysis points towards a clear increase in flexibility together with the probable emergence of new enforcement problems. In this context, the need for new improvements within the European framework for the definition and implementation of national fiscal policies is discussed.     

Basic Needs,Government Debt and Economic Growth

This paper investigates the relationships between basic needs and economic growth where the interactions between output, health, nutrition and education are explicitly simultaneous. We find a unidirectional relationship that improving basic welfare contributes strongly to labour productivity change, but a clear reverse causation only from growth to nutrition. There are substantial differences in the patterns of simultaneous interactions at different income and welfare levels. There are strong self‐reinforcing effects of literacy and debt service on poverty, making it difficult for poor countries to rectify their situation. Channelling resources towards improving health, education and nutrition could bring dramatic economic returns.     

The Health Consequences of Adverse Labor Market Events: Evidence from Panel Data

This study investigates the associations between self‐assessed adverse labor market events (experiencing problems with coworkers, employment changes, financial strain) and health. Longitudinal data are obtained from the National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions. Our findings suggest problems with coworkers, employment changes, and financial strain are associated, respectively, with a 3.1 percent (3.3 percent), 0.9 percent (0.2 percent), and 4.5 percent (5.1 percent) reduction in mental health among men (women). Associations are smaller in magnitude and less significant for physical health.     

A Nonlinear Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

We present an economically motivated two–factor term structure model that generalizes existing stochastic mean term structure models. By allowing a certain parameter to acquire dynamical behavior we extend the two–factor model to obtain a nonlinear three–factor model that is shown, in a deterministic version, to be equivalent to the Lorenz system of differential equations. With reasonable parameter values the model exhibits chaotic behavior. It successfully emulates certain properties of interest rates including cyclical behavior on a business cycle time scale. Estimation and pricing issues are discussed. Standard PCA techniques used to estimate HJM type models are observed to be equivalent to dimensional estimates commonly applied to 'spatial data' in nonlinear systems analysis.
It is concluded that techniques commonly used in the analysis of nonlinear systems may be directly applicable to interest rate models, offering new insights in the development of these models. Tests of nonlinearity in interest rate behavior may need to focus on long cycle times.     

Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy: An Event Study Analysis of the Brazilian Case

This article examines the relationship between the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Brazil and the stock market. We implement event study analysis and analyze the effect of the anticipated and unanticipated components of monetary policy decisions on the returns of the IBOVESPA index and 53 stocks. We find that monetary policy has a significant effect on the stock market, but is only responsible for a small proportion of market variation. The analysis at the sector level with expected returns identifies that the financial sector is the most affected by this policy, whereas with excess returns only industrial goods are significantly affected. Moreover, individual assets respond in a rather heterogeneous fashion to monetary policy; however, when we look at excess returns, we identify a reduction in the intensity and in the number of companies impacted by monetary policy. Finally, the monetary shock is explained by unanticipated variations in the unemployment rate, in the Industrial Production Index, in the General Market Price Index, and in the Broad Consumer Price Index.     

Implications of firm experiential knowledge and sequential FDI on performance of Japanese subsidiaries in Brazil

A foreign firm investing in a culturally different market usually faces a certain level of uncertainty. This study proposes that as a multinational company accumulates experiential knowledge, it develops more capabilities and know-how and consequently reflects on subsidiary performance. Based on a subsidiary level sample of Japanese firms located in Brazil, the empirical findings of this study demonstrate that the accumulation of both international and local experiential knowledge can positively affect subsidiary performance. Moreover, a firm’s sequential foreign direct investment decision in the local market is a key strategy to achieving a higher level of subsidiary profitability in comparison with a first-time investment firm.

The impact of affective and cognitive antecedents on negative word-of-mouth intentions

Negative word-of-mouth (WOM), defined as derogatory information disseminated from person to person and aimed at defaming a product, highlighting a product complaint, and/or highlighting unsatisfactory service experiences, influences consumer behavior and can harm a company’s image. The present study was conducted to ascertain the impact of affective antecedents (negative emotions) and cognitive antecedents (distrust) in the intent of negative WOM. A proposed theoretical model was employed to analyze the effect that perceived injustice had on negative WOM and how this effect was mediated by emotional and cognitive aspects. The research was a pre-experimental design – one treatment leading to one observation – with 252 students. Through an OLS regression and mediation analyses, we found an indirect link between perceived injustice and negative WOM intent, which was mediated by negative emotions and distrust. Contributing to the field of marketing studies, this paper fills an investigative gap regarding affective and cognitive antecedents as mediators of negative WOM. The results suggest that marketing managers should create mechanisms to allow consumers to express their negative emotions and rebuild their trust in order to avoid the spread of negative WOM.