Marketing Science and the Ivory Tower

How much has quantitative "marketing science" contributed to the practice of marketing? In my view, not much. In this article, based on extensive consulting experience, it is argued that well-established quantitative techniques like econometric models and diffusion models have produced little of either practical or scientific value. Other quantitative techniques, such as conjoint analysis, have been more useful for marketing decision-makers. But what is needed is a more pluralistic culture, drawing on a range of complementary disciplines.     

The Price of Options Illiquidity

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of illiquidity on the value of currency options. We use a unique dataset that allows us to explore this issue in special circumstances where options are issued by a central bank and are not traded prior to maturity. The value of these options is compared to similar options traded on the exchange. We find that the nontradable options are priced about 21 percent less than the exchange-traded options. This gap cannot be arbitraged away due to transactions costs and the risk that the exchange rate will change during the bidding process.     

Semiparametric and nonparametric testing for long memory: A Monte Carlo study

The finite sample properties of three semiparametric estimators, several versions of the modified rescaled range, MRR, and three versions of the GHURST estimator are investigated. Their power and size for testing for long memory under short-run effects, joint short and long-run effects, heteroscedasticity andt-distributions are given using Monte Carlo methods. The MRR with the Bartlett window is generally robust with the disadvantage of a relatively small power. The trimmed Whittle likelihood has high power in general and is robust except for large short-run effects. The tests are applied to changes in exchange rate series (daily data) of 6 major countries. The hypothesis of no fractional integration is rejected for none of the series.     

Return and risk in initial public offerings of both shares and warrants

In the past few years there has been an increasing number of new issues of shares of common stock together with warrants intended to raise interest in initial public offerings of relatively young, growing firms. In this study we examine the pricing efficiency of stocks and warrants offered simultaneously to the public as a single unit. We present a model for evaluating the warrants in such offerings and test it empirically against data from the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange, where such offerings have become standard. We find that the issued units are usually undervalued, allowing for significant abnormal positive returns. But, while the warrants are usually underpriced, the stocks are overpriced. Largely consistent with the evidence from other financial markets around the world, we also find abnormal negative rates of return in the long run.     

Firm resources,competitive actions and performance: investigating a mediated model with evidence from the in‐vitro diagnostics industry

Building on the resource‐based view (RBV) and competitive dynamics literatures, this paper proposes that considering resources or actions independently offers an incomplete understanding of the drivers of superior performance. Instead, we hypothesize that resources enable competitive actions and that when these actions leverage the firm's resources, superior performance results. We tested these hypotheses with panelized data on the technological resources and competitive actions of firms in the in‐vitro medical diagnostic substance manufacturing industry. The results provide substantial support for our hypotheses, specifically with respect to mediation. Our theory and results underscore how the integration of the competitive dynamics and RBV literatures can significantly improve our understanding of firm performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Von der Inflationsphobie bis zur „schwarzen Null“

The article examines some of the key statements of the supply-side economic theory that rejects debt-financed government investment programs for stabilizing high employment. It turns out that supply-side objections are not empirically proven. Subsequently, the author attempts to explain why nevertheless the supply-side paradigm stubbornly remains the prevailing theory in economics. It shows that the mechanisms of deliberative democracy in the economic decision-making in Germany do not work.     

Market entry in japan—Some problems and solutions 1

Japan is recognised as a major competitor in world markets but is less well‐known as an attractive market in its own right. This paper proposes that with the right strategies it is possible to successfully penetrate the difficult Japanese market. Problems and opportunities presented by the market are discussed, and some of the findings of a survey of Japanese and German managers in Japan and German‐based managers are reviewed. The paper covers the survey findings on market characteristics, barriers to entry, information requirements, factors contributing to success and methods of market entry. German and UK sources of information and advice on the Japanese market are given for those interested in pursuing the matter further.     

Challenges for land system science

While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement.