The impact of (more) enlargement on the European Employment Strategy

The European Union (EU) aspires to be the most competitive, full employment economy in the world and has set a number of ambitious targets to be met by 2010 in order that it can achieve this goal. At the same time, it is pursuing an enlargement policy that will witness the accession of an increasing number of less developed nations. This article explores some of the tensions that exist between these two goals as these are manifest in labour market indicators and finds the likelihood of meeting the deadline set for success remote.     

The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

The Impact of Foreign Technology and Embodied R&D on Productivity in Internationally Oriented and High-Technology Industries in Egypt, 2006–2009

This paper investigates the domestic productivity and spillover effects of foreign technology and embodied R&D on Egyptian manufacturing industries, 2006 to 2009. It also analyses the heterogeneous sectoral effects of technology transfer by focusing specifically on the productivity effects on highly internationalized and technology-intensive industries. These are expected to have greater absorptive capacity with respect to foreign technology and therefore larger productivity effects because of their greater exposure to foreign competition and greater technological capacity respectively. This study is the first to analyse the efficiency effects of foreign technology by classifying industries in this manner. It finds that foreign technology and embodied R&D have positive and significant industry-specific effects on domestic productivity and TFP in technology-intensive industries but that these are weaker in internationally oriented industries. The study suggests that only technological-intensive industries in Egypt have sufficient absorptive capacity to assimilate foreign technology effectively. The paper’s findings highlight the key role of foreign technology in domestic productivity growth, subject to the absorptive capacity of the domestic labour force, and the need for improved policies to promote the domestic benefits of technology transfer through the accumulation of local technological competences.

     

Hotel school alumni’s intentions to use communication channels – a cross-generational comparison study

ABSTRACT

Alumni communication is vital in sustaining the relationship between alumni and their alma maters. This research investigated four cohorts of alumni, and their intentions to use a range of traditional and digital communication channels, including social media. An online questionnaire was sent to 8060 alumni and resulted in 595 usable responses, yielding a 7% response rate. The research results showed that alumni have the highest intentions to use the alumni e-newsletter and the alumni Website and the lowest intentions to use social media, e.g., Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube. Among alumni cohorts, significant statistical differences in their intentions to use these communication channels were identified. Given our findings, alumni communication staff are encouraged to leverage different communication channels targeting alumni in different age groups.     

The coffee-machine system: how international selection really works

The literature on expatriate selection tends to present lists of criteria, with the implicit assumption that the process is formal and rational. The limited empirical work there is in this area suggests that these criteria have little impact on selection in practice. This paper argues that a deeper understanding of selection systems is needed and presents research showing the outcomes of different kinds of systems, suggesting that closed, informal systems predominate and outlining the practical and research implications of such systems.     

A practical solution to the problem of ultimate ruin probability

Abstract

It was the Swiss actuary Chr. Moser who, in lectures at Bern University at the turn of the century, gave the name “self-renewing aggregate” to what Vajda (1947) has called the “unstationary community” of lives, namely where deaths at any epoch are immediately replaced by an equivalent number of births. It was Moser too (1926) who coined the expression “steady state” for the stationary community in which the age distribution at any time follows the life table (King, 1887). With such a distinguished actuarial history, excellently summarized by Saxer (1958, Ch. IV), it behoves every actuary to know at least the definitions and modus operandi of today's so-called renewal (point), or recurrent event, processes.