Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

When an executive defects

The news that one of the company's senior managers is leaving comes as a complete surprise to Paul Simmonds, CEO of Kinsington Textiles, Inc. Ned Carpenter, KTI's vice president of operations for three years, writes in his resignation letter than he is leaving for a better opportunity. Simmonds soon learns that Carpenter's new job is at Daltex, one of KTI's main rivals in the intensely competitive carpet industry. Hiring Carpenter had helped Simmonds establish his reputation as a topnotch manager. Carpenter came to KTI with lots of ideas and put his enthusiasm to good use. Three years into a five-year change program, Carpenter had turned KTI's operations from one of the worst in the industry to one of the best. He also had helped develop and plan the upcoming launch of a new fiber coating--KTI's first breakthrough in years. In this fictitious case study, Simmonds, along with the company's counsel and vice president of human resources, must figure out how much and what sort of damage control they need. What are they going to tell the company's employees and the media? Should they immediately replace Carpenter with John Brady, the second-in-command of operations? What if Carpenter is taking KTI employees--and strategic information--with him to Daltex? Should Simmonds ask all his managers to sign noncompete agreements-something Carpenter was never asked to do? Should KTI sue Carpenter? Five experts offer advice about communicating with KTI's employees, the media, and Carpenter himself, and about protecting the company's confidential information.     

Perceptions of facilitators of a keypad‐based group support system

Organizations are using Group Support Systems (GSSs) to improve the quality of group meetings. Keypad‐based GSSs are a widely used form of this technology, yet there has been little research on their use and effects. This paper reports the findings of a survey of facilitators of a particular keypad GSS. Facilitators indicate that keypad technology improves the quality of meetings for a variety of tasks in a range of group settings and cultures. The findings are in general agreement with field studies of workstation‐based systems.     

Revisiting the ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment : A conversation

In 1991, futurist Bruce E. Tonn proposed a ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment to the US Constitution. His proposed ‘Court of Generations’ lacked punitive powers but, hopefully, would have sufficient legitimacy to counteract extreme present-minded thinking evident in US political processes and institutions. Although Tonn's ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment has been well received in the futures community, who else has heard of it? Otherwise, has it made any difference? How can the cumbersome and nonfuturistic amendment procedure in the US Constitution generate a futures-oriented ‘Court of Generations’? And for those who sincerely look forward to a ‘Court of Generations,’ precisely what kind of tactically savvy visionary leadership will give the ‘Court of Generations’ any chance of being approved? During 1997, Vincent Kelly Pollard engaged Dr. Tonn in an Internet conversation aimed at clarifying these issues.     

Morris L. Bian. The Making of the State Enterprise System in Modern China: The Dynamics of Institutional Change. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2005. xi + 331 pp. ISBN 0-674-01717-X, $45.00 (cloth).

Although it has been generally recognized that industrial andeconomic expansion in China can be traced from the early yearsof the nineteenth century, the conventional view is that thedevelopment of the modern state enterprise system dates fromthe setting up of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.According to most commentators, the Chinese almost universallyadopted Stalinist industrial and economic systems in the earlyyears of the postrevolutionary period without much by way of     

Distribution dynamics and convergence in Latin America: A non-parametric analysis

This paper examines the dynamics of income distribution and convergence in Latin America during the period 1960 to 2000. Our results, based on the intradistribution dynamics approach, reveal a “twin peaks” dynamics, which echoes findings reported for the OECD, the Asia Pacific Basin and worldwide. Notable differences, however, are found between the income dynamics in Latin America and in these other regions. Further, our findings indicate that physical capital investment and health capital serve to explain Latin America’s “twin peaks” polarization. Other factors, such as geographical proximity, trade openness and human capital, are also found to help explaining it to some extent. We gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments and suggestions of the referee.     

Price policy and agricultural export performance in Jamaica

Jamaica experienced one of the longest uninterrupted periods of negative growth among LDCs in the 1970s. Agricultural exports led this decline with an unusually poor growth performance, exacerbating foreign exchange shortages. Commodity board pricing policies played a strong role in penalizing these exports. Further, board policies appear to be inefficient in either maximizing profits or foreign exchange. Implicit and unstated objectives of board policies are discussed. Supply functions show that farmers do react positively to price changes, contrary to board assumptions. Beneficiaries of this penalizing price policy are identified and an important implication for foreign aid policy is underscored.