Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates from Foreign Equity Options

The use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange‐traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk‐neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.     

Syndicated Loan Announcements and Borrower Value

Announcements of syndication loans increase borrowers' shareholder wealth if they are revolving credit agreements but not if they are term loans. Share price responses to revolving credit announcements are positive and significant, whereas the wealth effect for term loans is negative and significant. The results show that announcements from both the financial press and commercial information providers can affect borrower share price reaction. Overall, single syndication announcements appear to be more newsworthy than multiple announcements reported in the financial press, and we find evidence of information leakage, post‐announcement drift, or both.     

MANAGING VENDOR INVENTORY IN A DUAL LEVEL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

Collaborative arrangements among members of the supply chain have received a great deal of interest in recent years as a means of reducing costs. One such arrangement is vendor managed inventory (VMI). VMI allows the vendor to make decisions concerning the quantity and timing of deliveries to the retailer. Such an arrangement offers the potential of a more efficient supply chain by removing the negative effects of retail ordering policies. A thorough review of the literature was conducted to identify factors likely to impact the performance of a VMI partnership. Computer simulation was used to study the effects of these factors from both the vendor's and retailer's perspectives. The results lend insight into the performance of VMI and guidance for managers as to the environments in which VMI is most effective.     

AN EVALUATION OF PROCESS‐ORIENTED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORKS

Supply chain management (SCM) is implemented by integrating corporate functions using business processes within and across companies. Several process‐oriented frameworks for SCM have been proposed but only two of these provide sufficient detail to enable implementation. We evaluate the Supply‐Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) framework and The Global Supply Chain Forum (GSCF) framework using four criteria and identify their relative strengths and weaknesses.     

The Contingent Value of Responsive and Proactive Market Orientations for New Product Program Performance*

While the benefits of being market oriented are largely accepted, a group of scholars and managers remain skeptical. Marketing scholars have sought to counter the criticisms leveled against market orientation (MO) by arguing that it has both responsive and proactive dimensions. However, few studies have empirically examined the complexity of the effects of these dimensions on firm performance. Drawing on theories of resource‐based advantage and organizational search behavior, this article advances understanding by arguing that responsive and proactive market orientations have curvilinear effects on product development performance, that their interaction may be positively related to product development performance, and that their effects on new product program performance are moderated differentially by the organizational implementation conditions and marketing function power. Survey results of 175 U.S. firms indicate support for most of the hypotheses. Specifically, whereas responsive MO has a U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance, proactive MO has an inverted U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance. Contrary to the arguments presented here, the interaction of both orientations is negatively related to new product program performance. This study finds that both orientations are needed; however, new product program performance is enhanced when one is at higher level and the other is at lower level. Finally, responsive MO is only positively related to new product program performance under specific conditions such as when strategic consensus among managers is high. On the other hand, the positive effect of proactive MO on new product program performance is further strengthened when learning orientation and marketing power are high. Overall, this study suggests that the effects of responsive and proactive MO on new product program performance are more complex than previously theoretically argued and empirically examined.     

股市波动、金融政策和宏观经济关系研究——基于因子VAR模型

通过因子分析从诸宏观经济变量中提取了金融政策因子和宏观经济状态因子,建立了基于VAR的股价波动、金融政策和宏观经济三变量回归模型。研究表明：金融政策影响股价的表现,而宏观经济状态对股价、股价对金融政策和宏观经济状态的影响均不显著;基于标准差的VAR（5）模型相对于基于收益率的VAR（3）模型能更好地刻画股市波动与金融政策、宏观经济三者之间的关系。     

开架借阅在中小型图书馆中的应用与分析

本文分析了开架供阅的利弊,例举了在高校中、小型图书馆中开架的实际表现,指出以开架为主,开架与闭架相结合的体制将为大多数图书馆所接受。     

浅析我国直接融资与间接融资比例的失衡问题

对统计数据的分析说明了我国直接融资和间接融资的比例严重失衡,为此,应针对原因采取规范和发展主板市场、分步推进创业板市场建设、拓展债券市场和加强金融监管等对策。     

英汉缩略语比较简析

随着社会的发展,缩略语已经渗透到政治、经济以及社会生活的方方面面,它是现代语言中一种常见的语言现象,与人们的生活和工作密切相关。本文阐述了英汉缩略语的含义,比较分析了它们的构成方式和修辞特点。