Inference with Dependent Data in Accounting and Finance Applications

We review developments in conducting inference for model parameters in the presence of intertemporal and cross‐sectional dependence with an emphasis on panel data applications. We review the use of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) standard error estimators, which include the standard clustered and multiway clustered estimators, and discuss alternative sample‐splitting inference procedures, such as the Fama–Macbeth procedure, within this context. We outline pros and cons of the different procedures. We then illustrate the properties of the discussed procedures within a simulation experiment designed to mimic the type of firm‐level panel data that might be encountered in accounting and finance applications. Our conclusion, based on theoretical properties and simulation performance, is that sample‐splitting procedures with suitably chosen splits are the most likely to deliver robust inferential statements with approximately correct coverage properties in the types of large, heterogeneous panels many researchers are likely to face.     

POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The evolution of the monetary transmission channels in Turkey: evidence from a TVP-VAR model

This article investigates the evolution of the monetary transmission mechanisms in Turkey for the period from January 1986 to December 2016. To this aim, the impacts of monetary variables on the prices and economic activity are investigated with a time-varying vector autoregressive model based on. The evidences from the time-varying responses indicate that the adoption of inflation targeting policy has markedly affected the functioning of transmission channels. The results also suggest that local and global financial crises may magnify the impact of monetary policy shocks on the overall economy.     

Impact of oil price changes on Turkey’s exports

Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, we study the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, we analyse the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. We find that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, we estimate growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function. Finally, we calculate the net effect of oil prices on exports considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited given the current export shares.     

The Big Family: Informal Financing of Small‐ and Medium‐Sized Businesses by Guanxi

Guanxi facilitates interaction between companies and people in Confucian societies. Does this type of social construct still play the key role, when the entrepreneurs live in Western societies? The objective of this article is to verify the impact of Guanxi on the capacity of small and medium‐sized businesses accessing financial resources informally. To this end, data collected from small Chinese entrepreneurs active in the principal business center of Brazil were used. From nonparametric tests, the results suggest that: (1) different levels of Guanxi allow small and medium‐sized businesses to access informal financial resources; (2) different types of informal financing are mostly used, or judged to be more significant, depending on the level of Guanxi of the entrepreneur in terms of parental and nonfamily ties; and (3) unlike the Western literature on the financial cycles of start‐ups, this type of informal financing can extend beyond the initial stage of the business. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Assessing the competition in Angola’s banking industry

This article analyses the level of competition in Angola’s banking industry using the Panzar–Rosse model with data from 2005 to 2014. Competition is a vital aspect of the banking market and therefore it is central to policy-making. The results reveal that Angola banking competition is monopolist and therefore lower competition is found in Angola banks. Policy implication is derived.     

ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TO DIVERSIFY CONTRACTUAL RISK*

Are hedging transactions that diversify a manager’s compensation risk detrimental to incentives, or can they improve contracting efficiency? If hedging provides efficiency benefits, should the manager or the firm undertake it? In our model, both the firm and the manager can trade financial portfolios to diversify the manager’s compensation risk. Prior to the portfolio selection, the parties need to acquire information on how different financial portfolios fit their diversification purposes. We illustrate that financial portfolios correlated with firm‐specific risk improve contracting efficiency. For equal information costs, it is optimal for the firm to undertake the hedging on the manager’s behalf.     

Does performance explain mutual fund flows in small markets? The case of Portugal

We study the performance reaction of investors in a specific small market context. Our sample includes all Portuguese open-end equity funds that invested in stocks issued by Portuguese companies in the period December 1993–June 2009. Instead of the convex flow–performance relationship usually documented for the US, we find an absence of reaction to past performance. We find no evidence to support the “smart money effect”, given that capital flows do not favour next period performance winners. We also document persistence of fund flows. Our results are consistent with the idea that large financial intermediaries have the capacity “to drive” their customers to funds with larger fees.     

The impacts of student and life satisfaction on tourism students’ perceived sense of belonging

This study explores how tourism students’ satisfaction with their lives and academics affect their sense of belonging within their school communities. The primary supporting research was conducted using a questionnaire, which 285 students in Akdeniz University’s Faculty of Tourism answered. The mean scores of the two scales (life satisfaction and sense of belonging) and the dimensions of student satisfaction were used to conduct multiple regression analysis. The results suggest that two aspects of student life (teaching staff and school management vs. student support and counseling) and life satisfaction had a direct correlation with students’ sense of belonging.     

Sodium content in foods: Brazilian consumers’ opinions,subjective knowledge and purchase intent

This study attempted to gain insights on Brazilian consumers’ subjective knowledge of sodium content in processed and homemade foods and their purchase intent for products with reduced‐sodium content. A questionnaire was distributed to 409 consumers selected by convenience quota sampling. We found that Brazilian consumers were concerned about the amount of salt (sodium chloride) in the products they consumed, regardless of educational levels, income, age, lifestyles, or health conditions. However, they still considered their consumption to be above WHO‐recommended limits and had little subjective knowledge about the term ‘sodium’. While processed products were considered the main contributors of high‐sodium intake, participants were not concerned about addition of salt at the table and salt in homemade food. The majority of respondents rarely read the sodium content on food labels; however, men and older individuals were more likely to read label information on sodium content. Products with reduced sodium were found to have market appeal, which justifies investments in research to develop these products. Therefore, in addition to the efforts to reduce sodium in the processed‐food industry, it is necessary to promote awareness about the importance of food labelling, especially sodium content, and the need to reduce salt in homemade food and additions during meals.