PAALiativ: Technik als Chance?

Assistenztechnologie im Wohnumfeld — Die Terminalphase des Lebens in h?uslicher Umgebung verbringen zu k?nnen entspricht dem Wunsch der meisten Menschen. In Oldenburg startete mit PAALiativ ein Projekt, mit dem exemplarisch nach M?glichkeiten der technischen Unterstützung für ein selbstbestimmtes Leben Schwerstkranker gesucht wird.     

The Benefit of Mean Auditors: The Influence of Social Interaction and the Dark Triad on Unjustified Auditor Trust

Regulators and researchers have expressed concerns that social interaction leads auditors to unjustifiably trust managers, constituting a lack of sufficient professional skepticism. Using both an abstract laboratory experiment and a contextually rich experiment with practicing auditors we predict and find that higher Dark Triad auditors (those with higher levels of the shared core between psychopathy, narcissism, and Machiavellianism) are relatively more resistant to lapses in professional skepticism due to the effects of social interaction. This is likely driven by higher Dark Triad auditors' callousness, lack of empathy, and lack of response to social stimuli. In contrast, while higher social interaction initially increases lower Dark Triad auditors' unjustified trust in managers, this effect reverses in subsequent interactions when lower Dark Triad auditors observe evidence suggesting managers have reported aggressively. These findings add to research on the effect of auditor personality traits, audit-client social interaction, and the interaction of these two variables, and suggest that practitioners and researchers account for the interplay of Dark Triad traits and social interaction and their effect on professional skepticism.     

An asset protection scheme for banks exposed to troubled loan portfolios

We examine a specific portfolio credit derivative, an Asset Protection Scheme (APS), and its applicability as a discretionary regulatory tool to reduce asymmetric information and help restore the capital base of troubled banks. The APS can be a fair-valued contract with an appropriate structure of incentives. We apply two alternative multivariate structural default risk models: the classical Gaussian Merton model and a model based on Normal Inverse Gaussian processes. Using a data set on annual farm level data from 1996 to 2009, we use the Danish agricultural sector as a case study and price an APS on an agricultural loan portfolio. We compute the economic capital for this loan portfolio with and without an APS. Moreover, we illustrate how model risk in the form of parameter uncertainty is reduced when an APS is attached to the loan portfolio.     

Trader Participation in Disclosure: Implications of Interactions with Management

Technological advances are creating a shift in the information disclosure environment allowing more investors to interact with management. We examine three key levels of trader-management interaction to assess the accuracy of traders' market-tested value estimates and resulting market price. These data require an engaging experiment and a complex, contextually rich asset, which we create by playing a popular gaming app before the experiment. Participants view financial information, ask management questions, estimate value, and trade. We find that receiving non-personalized question responses improves trader estimates of value and market price efficiency relative to when traders ask questions but do not expect a response. This occurs because traders exert more effort estimating value and trading. However, receiving personalized versus non-personalized responses harms value estimates and market efficiency. This occurs because traders receiving personalized responses fixate on the interaction with management, dividing their attention and diverting it away from valuing and trading the asset.     

EU-China Partenariat 2006:Tailor-made Opportunities for SMEs of EU and China

2006 EU-China Partenariat 2006, the large-scale business-to-business event which will link almost one thousand European and Chinese companies is indeed a highly appropriate way to further enhance the already excellent relations between the EU and China moreover as this is the very year that we are celebrating 30 years of EU-China diplomatic ties.……     

Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs): modeling and risk analysis

Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs) are structured credit derivatives that generate high coupon payments by dynamically leveraging a position in an underlying portfolio of investment-grade index default swaps. CPDO coupons and principal notes received high initial credit ratings from the major rating agencies, based on complex models for the joint transition of ratings and spreads for all names in the underlying portfolio. We propose a parsimonious model for analysing the performance of CPDO strategies using a top-down approach that captures the essential risk factors of the CPDO. Our approach allows us to compute default probabilities, loss distributions and other tail risk measures for the CPDO strategy and analyse the dependence of these risk measures on various parameters describing the risk factors. We find that the probability of the CPDO defaulting on its coupon payments can be made arbitrarily small—and thus the credit rating arbitrarily high—by increasing leverage, but the ratings obtained strongly depend on assumptions on the credit environment (high spread or low spread). More importantly, CPDO loss distributions are found to exhibit a wide range of tail risk measures inside a given rating category, suggesting that credit ratings are insufficient performance indicators for such complex leveraged strategies. A worst-case scenario analysis indicates that CPDO strategies have a high exposure to persistent spread-widening scenarios and that CPDO ratings are shown to be quite unstable during the lifetime of the strategy.     

Diagonal effects in claims reserving

In this paper we present two different approaches to how one can include diagonal effects in non-life claims reserving based on run-off triangles. Empirical analyses suggest that the approaches in Zehnwirth (2003) and Kuang et al. (2008a, 2008b) do not work well with low-dimensional run-off triangles because estimation uncertainty is too large. To overcome this problem we consider similar models with a smaller number of parameters. These are closely related to the framework considered in Verbeek (1972) and Taylor (1977, 2000); the separation method. We explain that these models can be interpreted as extensions of the multiplicative Poisson models introduced by Hachemeister & Stanard (1975) and Mack (1991).