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1.
Johann Graf Lambsdorff 《American journal of economics and sociology》2002,61(4):829-853
There is empirical evidence that investors' confidence is not only adversely affected by corruption but also by the lack of predictability and confidence that accompanies corrupt deals. However, the positive aspect of this lack of confidence is that it acts as a deterrent to corruption. Empirical data provided here on a cross–section of countries proves that confidence in corrupt deals enhances the further spread of corruption. This suggests that the adverse effects of corruption cannot be avoided by divesting it of its unpredictability. 相似文献
2.
3.
The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the
last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the
current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of
the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The
results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current
account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted
expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account.
First version received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001 相似文献
4.
The essay analyzes in an overlapping-generations model, to which extent a pay-as-you-go pension system will be the outcome
of majority voting, given specific institutional set-ups. Clearly, the vote of an active person depends on his expectations
about how the present decision (i.e., his contribution) is linked to the future (i.e., his benefits), when he will be retired.
In the paper we employ the assumption of a basic social contract where each active voter's future benefits are positively
related to his contributions. It is shown that in this framework a steady-state with a positive (though lower than optimal)
level of the pension system exists, even if a new majority decision about the system takes place every period. 相似文献
5.
Information sharing as a safeguard against the opportunistic behavior of South African Karoo Lamb farmers 下载免费PDF全文
Melissa van der Merwe Johann F. Kirsten Jacques H. Trienekens 《Agricultural Economics》2017,48(Z1):101-111
Misconduct in global meat supply chains are omnipresent and even more so in differentiated chains where credence attributes such as origin and taste are used to differentiate the product. By definition, these attributes signal asymmetric information which implies that in the presence of bounded rational individuals with conflicting interests, misconduct in the form of opportunistic behavior is bound to prevail. Increased information exchange through farmer networks is, however, expected to reduce opportunistic behavior. In the case of a differentiated meat product, such as Karoo Lamb, the article studies the farmer‐abattoir transaction with the purpose of recommending strategies that can be implemented to reduce the farmer's tendency to behave opportunistically. The article employs the PLS approach to SEM and reveals a significant negative relationship between information shared and opportunistic behavior. The results indicate significant positive relationships between trust in the abattoir and information shared as well as between farmer networks and information shared. These results are indicative of the support provided to the information shared construct by higher levels of trust between farmers and abattoirs and established farmer networks. It is, therefore, recommended that differentiated meat supply chains, through their various associations, concentrate their efforts to promote information sharing by building stronger, trust centered relationships and by supporting farmer networks. 相似文献
6.
Martin Halla Mario Lackner Johann Scharler 《The Scandinavian journal of economics》2016,118(2):292-323
We study the effect of the size of the welfare state on demographic trends in OECD member countries. Exploiting exogenous variation in public social spending, due to varying degrees of political fractionalization (i.e., the number of relevant parties involved in the legislative process), we show that an expansion in the welfare state increases fertility, marriage, and divorce rates with a quantitatively stronger effect on the marriage rate. We conclude that the welfare state supports family formation in the aggregate. Further, we find that the welfare state decouples marriage and fertility, and therefore alters the organization of the average family. 相似文献
7.
ABSTRACT Supranational organisations can only confront politico-economic issues that are recognised as important. Typically, issues gain recognition either when they provide an external shock to the system, shaking political actors into action, or when they are framed as important in policy networks concerned with developing the appropriate scientific approach. Ideally political and scientific actors align in creating pressures to recognise the issue as salient and to mobilise organisational responses. Issues differ in their capacity to be driven by both political and scientific pressures, creating crisis management, technocratic, and reform agenda outcomes. Here we explore a further variation, where pressures around an issue are insufficient, creating a policy vacuum. We examine one such policy vacuum in Europe: demographic change. This issue belongs to no particular Directorate-General in the European Commission, but is subject to policy frames from DG EMPL and DG ECFIN. Without sufficient political and scientific pressures, no particular policy position is occupied and advocated despite recognition of the issue’s importance. We discuss the role of policy vacuums and the need for their identification in political economy research. 相似文献
8.
The ongoing debate on the efficiency of a federal system versus a centralized system has lead to a diverse and unclear empirical
picture of the effects of fiscal decentralization on public sector growth. For analyzing these effects it is crucial to consider
the sub-national decision power on taxing and spending. In the current paper, we test for the effects of fiscal autonomy on
total government expenditure using time series from 1955 to 2007 for Austria. Determinants of government expenditure are economic
growth, fiscal illusion of policy makers, and the unemployment rate. We additionally account for different degrees of sub-national
fiscal autonomy. Our econometric results suggest that the often-hypothesized dampening effects of fiscal autonomy cannot be
corroborated for the Austrian system. 相似文献
9.
Professor Dr. Johann Pfanzagl 《Metrika》1960,3(1):1-25
Zusammenfassung Es werden Verteilungen betrachtet, die (bezüglich irgendeines Ma?es) eine Dichte der GestaltC(ϑ) exp [ϑ x] besitzen. Für solche Verteilungen werden (ein- und zweiseitige) Tests und Konfidenzintervalle mit gewissen Optimalit?tseigenschaften
entwickelt, und zwar fürϑ, für die Differenzϑ
1 −ϑ
2, sowie für einige Versionen desk-Stichproben Problems. Sodann werden einige Hilfss?tze über den bedingten Erwartungswert und die bedingte Varianz von zweiparametrigen
Verteilungen abgeleitet, die bezüglich des einen Parameters reproduktiv sind und eine bezüglich des zweiten Parameters ersch?pfende
und vollst?ndige Funktion besitzen. Schlie?lich werden die allgemeinen Ergebnisse auf einige diskrete Verteilungen (Binomial,
Poisson, negativ Binomial, Pascal) angewendet und der Zusammenhang mit verschiedenen bekannten Tests diskutiert.
Summary Probability distributions are considered which (with respect to any measure) possess a density function of the typeC(ϑ) exp [ϑ x]. For distributions of this type (one and twosided) tests and confidence intervals with some optimal properties are given, namely forϑ, for the differenceϑ 1 −ϑ 2, and for several versions of thek-sample problem. Furthermore, some lemmas concerning the conditional expectation and the conditional variance are proved for two-parameter families of distributions which are reproductive in one parameter and possess a complete statistic, sufficient for the second parameter. Finally the general results are applied to some discrete distributions (binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, Pascal) and the relationship to several fairly known tests is discussed.相似文献
10.
Hanjo Odendaal Monique Reid Johann F. Kirsten 《The South African journal of economics. Suid-afrikaanse tydskrif vir ekonomie》2020,88(4):409-434
In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa. 相似文献