EXCHANGE RATE FUNDAMENTALS,FORECASTING, AND SPECULATION: BAYESIAN MODELS IN BLACK MARKETS

Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out‐of‐sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out‐of‐sample performance of linear models and non‐parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals‐based models outperform the benchmark in out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real‐time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Keeping Public Institutions Invested in Tobacco

Increasingly through the 1990s, tobacco control advocates questioned the practice of public institutions investing in tobacco company stocks. The questioning was framed in at least three ways. First, is it ethical to fund public expenditures with profits from a product that causes addiction and disease? Second, is it sound social policy to derive public income from a product that increases healthcare costs and reduces worker productivity? Finally, is it sound fiscal policy to invest in an historically profitable industry facing multiplying legal and regulatory challenges? While the tobacco industry preferred to restrict discussion to the fiscal question, and offered an affirmative answer, its position was weakened by depressed stock prices brought on by actions of the industry as much as by tobacco control activism. As part of a campaign to restore its credibility as an investment vehicle with public fund managers, Philip Morris (PM) commissioned a report from the influential investment managers/advisors Wilshire Associates. However, Wilshire had only recently conducted such a study for the Washington State Investment Board (WSIB), assuring the board that the value tobacco stocks added to an investment portfolio – if any – was too small to be measured. Nonetheless, within a year, Wilshire produced a report for PM which appeared to laud the investment value of tobacco and to dismiss tobacco-excluded investment alternatives. This paper examines how Wilshire produced apparently diametrically opposed reports for clients with different interests. It reveals a pattern of potential conflicts of interest among tobacco companies, financial analysis firms, investment authorities, and institutional fund managers. It demonstrates substantial violations of two generally accepted ethical principles of business consulting: veracity and transparency.     

The effect of information on consumers' willingness to pay for natural and organic chicken

This study examined the effect of definitions for organic and natural on willingness to pay a premium for organic over natural chicken. Data were collected using surveys and experimental auctions that were conducted before and after information was presented. Before information, approximately two‐thirds of participants inaccurately equated the requirements of natural with those for organic. After information, nearly 50% increased their premium, while 30% decreased their premium. Logistic regression results showed that consumers who had overestimated the requirements for natural were most likely to have an increased premium after information, with significantly higher bids for organic. For those who decreased their premium after information, awareness of consuming genetically modified (GM) foods was a key variable. The non‐genetically modified (non‐GM) requirement of organic appears to be of low value to some consumers. Overall, consumer confusion regarding organic and natural standards may be having substantial impacts on the two markets.     

An instrumental variable approach to distinguishing perceptions from preferences for beer brands

Recent developments in behavioral economics have prompted interest in identifying how product perceptions and beliefs influence decision making. Using a branded discrete choice experiment for beer, this article uses the control function approach and plausible instruments to correct for the endogeneity problem in a way that is applicable in a wide range of circumstances. Even after correction, we find that perceptions substantially affect consumer choices. In the context of brand equity for beer brands, we find that the perceived taste and brand familiarity are key determinants of choice.     

Environmental scanning the future of event design

This paper used multiple sources of information in order to identify the forces likely to impact event design. Content analysis of key informant interviews and selected trade publication articles identified key forces impacting event design. Technology, the environment and green issues, security and safety, and globalization were forces identified by both the key informants and the trade literature. Neither of the sources gave much attention to political forces. This article contributes to our understanding of the forces impacting event design and suggests some environmental scanning methodologies that can be used with both key informants and the trade publication literature.     

The contribution of vacations to quality of life

The contribution of vacations to people’s life satisfaction and Quality of Life (QOL) has recently attracted substantial attention among tourism researchers. Yet, most QOL scales do not include vacations: 7% explicitly measure vacations whereas 42% only include items relating to vacations within the broader Leisure domain. Leisure and vacations, however, differ substantially in nature with leisure referring to regular home-based activities and vacations being infrequent leisure activities away from home. As a consequence of the common amalgamation of vacations with leisure, there is limited knowledge about the specific contribution of vacations to people’s QOL. The present study (1) presents empirical evidence for the contribution of vacations to QOL, (2) determines the extent of this contribution, and (3) investigates variation in the extent to which vacations contribute to the QOL of different people. Results indicate that vacations contribute to the QOL of the majority of people, are as important a QOL domain as Leisure and People, and that QOL means different things to different people at different points in their life, representing an individual and dynamic concept.