Real-Time Forecasting Revisited: Letting the Data Decide

Real-time GDP forecasting, also often known as “nowcasting,” produces estimates for current-quarter real GDP growth, typically based on a centered value from a set of estimates from incoming indicators. These real-time measures are usually intended to be data-based and to not be based on forecaster judgment or add factors. Even so, estimation methodologies in this research area—and prior versions of the system we use—typically have been constrained by using various “fixed” relationships, such as a fixed historical sample horizon and fixed empirical specifications for the indicator variables. This paper describes the methodology, estimation, and software code for a more flexible real-time GDP system that allows the data to decide the best real-time GDP forecast for varying sample horizons and varying specifications for each indicator variable through time. Our system uses data on key indicators as they become available (accounting for the “jagged-edge” nature of the data in the current quarter) to generate an estimate of current-quarter real GDP growth, with weights for combining the indicator-specific estimates as determined by the strength of the indicators’ historical relationships to GDP growth. The improved system searches across a variety of specifications and across sample horizons to choose the best specification as determined by a minimum Schwarz criterion test while also searching for the best sample horizon for minimizing the mean absolute error for a recent prediction period. We illustrate the operation of the system for real-time estimates of real GDP growth over a specific quarter, and examine the properties of the estimates and the implications for predictions. We also discuss potential additional applications and demonstrate a specific application for real-time predictions of the monthly change in payroll jobs.     

Inhibition of Brand Integration amid Changing Agency Structures

The all‐important focus upon brands and brand success is underpinned – of necessity – by well‐designed and well‐executed integrated marketing communications (IMC). This qualitative paper explores perceptions of IMC in relation to branding within senior UK‐based advertising and public relations agencies in terms of current perceptions, implementation, coordination, evaluation, barriers, budgetary issues, decision‐making; and managerial implications for the future of IMC. The paper describes the findings from a series of depth interviews with senior executives from leading advertising and public relations agencies. While the findings do indicate the presence of ongoing barriers to the adoption and usage of integrated solutions, these barriers are as much an issue to do with clients as with the agencies themselves. Nonetheless, there seems to be an issue concerned with remodelling working practices to accommodate new and seamless ways of working creatively across all promotional mix elements. Thus, while the principles of integrated marketing communications are sound, the actual mechanisms for application still need further work –in terms of both application and measurement, and the need for in‐depth research. We also endorse and reiterate oft‐repeated calls for research with client organizations.     

Exploring the link between obesity and advertising in New Zealand

This paper reviews the debate on the causes and potential solutions to growing obesity and whether there is a proven correlation with advertising, particularly among children. The paper first considers this debate from the context of the burgeoning literature on this topic. The findings from an empirical study with parents of primary‐age children in New Zealand are then presented. However, any kind of proposed relationship between obesity and advertising tends to be as much emotive as evidential, with for‐and‐against camps lined up to defend entrenched positions. However, it does seem fair to argue that, while advertising does present a problem in relation to food selection choice, many other issues, such as peer pressure, quality of life, in‐school food services, nearby retail outlets and social class criteria, exacerbate the problem. Thus, easy solutions based on insufficient evidence that have failed to substantiate causal effects between advertising (ostensibly) directed at children and nutrition can be seen as inequitable and, thus, ineffective in their intended aims. Although here the paper considers the problem from a New Zealand perspective, the findings may have implications for research elsewhere in the world.     

Ethical Perspectives on the Postmodern Communications Leviathan

Advertising and other forms of promotional activity have proliferated to such an extent that they may constitute a form of social pollution (Kitchen, 1994). The quantity and tone of communications to which consumers are exposed may have a subtle but pervasive effect on the social ecology of the developed world. Not only are Marketing Communications delivered in unprecedented quantities (Kitchen, 1994); but their tone is increasingly difficult to categorise in the Postmodern Marketing era (Brown, 1994). Notably, there has been very little research conducted on this seeming "Leviathan" (Kitchen, 1994, after Hobbes, 1651) effect. Ethical concerns of professional marketing bodies such as the MRS and CIM are focussed on the conduct of professionals with regard to law and notions of moral decency in human exchange relationships (see MRS code of conduct, ASA and IBA guidelines). There is less emphasis on the ethical implications for society of the totality of Marketing Communication activities. This paper examines the distinctively Postmodern concept of the Communications Leviathan and discusses contemporary ethical issues, drawing perspectives where possible from Postmodern critical theory, Enlightenment philosophy, cognitive psychology and classical ethical works of Plato and Aristotle.