Statistical Properties of a Composite Index as Estimator of a Single Latent Variable

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

Real Investment Implications of Employee Stock Option Exercises

This paper examines a real cost of awarding employee stock options. Based on the observation that managers are extremely concerned about earnings-per-share dilution in equity related compensation, we predict and find that firms experiencing significant employee stock option (ESO) exercises shift resources away from real investments towards the repurchase of their own stocks. We further find weak evidence of a decline in subsequent firm performance (as measured by return on assets) for several years following the cut in discretionary investments as a result of stock option exercises, though this result is sensitive to the metric used to measure performance. Collectively, our findings indicate that ESO exercises potentially impose a real cost on the firm in terms of foregone investment opportunities.     

The Media's Role in Influencing Perceptions of Housing Values and the Resulting Impact on the Macroeconomy

The housing market is a major component of the economy and persistent negative media reports can adversely affect perceptions and expectations of homeowners as to the value of their home. As a result, households reduce their expenditures and increase their savings in an effort to rebuild lost wealth. In the short run the economy suffers and the recession is magnified. This paper demonstrates, through an empirical study, how negative media reports regarding the deteriorating conditions of the national housing market affects what households feel their housing is worth.     

Identifying Control Motives in Managerial Ownership: Evidence from Antitakeover Legislation

This study uses the introduction of second-generation antitakeoverlegislation as a natural experimental setting to infer the valuethat managers place on the control rights conferred by stockownership. We conjecture that managers will reduce their stockholdingsin the post-legislation period because they can ensure theirprior level of control while holding fewer risky shares. Usinga variety of specifications, we find robust evidence consistentwith this "revealed preference" hypothesis. Further demonstratingthe key role played by control considerations in managers' stockholdingdecisions, the reductions in ownership are concentrated in managementteams with higher levels of initial ownership and in firms withoutpoison pills.     

Support for the underdog brand biography: Effects on consumer attitude and behavior

Conflict between favorites and underdogs is an everyday phenomenon. Research suggests that people support the underdog as they see a reflection of their own self in the person at a disadvantaged position. Two studies examine the effect of underdog brand biography in two different contexts. Study 1 provides support for the notion that underdog brand biographies for established brands elicit stronger consumer response than underdog brand biography for new brands. In study 2, a 2 × 2 between-subjects experimental design measured respondents’ reaction toward an underdog brand biography over a top dog brand biography under conditions of public versus private consumption. Results demonstrate that consumers exposed to underdog brand biographies in the private consumption condition will be more likely to respond favorably than when they are exposed to the public consumption condition. Based on the results it is suggested that advertisers make use of underdog brand biographies in case of established brands. Furthermore, choice of underdog brand narratives is likely to bring positive results under conditions of private consumption.     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on investor information asymmetry and management disclosures

Investor uncertainty about firm value drives investors’ information collection and trading activities, as well as managers’ disclosure choices. This study examines an important source of uncertainty that likely cannot be influenced by most managers and investors: uncertainty about government economic policy. We find that this uncertainty is associated with increased bid-ask spreads and decreased stock price reactions to earnings surprises. Managers respond to this uncertainty by increasing their voluntary disclosures, but these disclosures only partly mitigate the bid-ask spread increase. We conclude that government economic policy uncertainty is an important component of firms’ information environments and managers’ voluntary disclosure decisions.     

Confirming the timing of phase-based costing in oncology studies: a case example in advanced melanoma

Aims: The utilization of healthcare services and costs among patients with cancer is often estimated by the phase of care: initial, interim, or terminal. Although their durations are often set arbitrarily, we sought to establish data-driven phases of care using joinpoint regression in an advanced melanoma population as a case example.

Methods: A retrospective claims database study was conducted to assess the costs of advanced melanoma from distant metastasis diagnosis to death during January 2010–September 2014. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to identify the best-fitting points, where statistically significant changes in the trend of average monthly costs occurred. To identify the initial phase, average monthly costs were modeled from metastasis diagnosis to death; and were modeled backward from death to metastasis diagnosis for the terminal phase. Points of monthly cost trend inflection denoted ending and starting points. The months between represented the interim phase.

Results: A total of 1,671 patients with advanced melanoma who died met the eligibility criteria. Initial phase was identified as the 5-month period starting with diagnosis of metastasis, after which there was a sharp, significant decline in monthly cost trend (monthly percent change [MPC]?=?–13.0%; 95% CI?=?–16.9% to –8.8%). Terminal phase was defined as the 5-month period before death (MPC?=?–14.0%; 95% CI?=?–17.6% to –10.2%).

Limitations: The claims-based algorithm may under-estimate patients due to misclassifications, and may over-estimate terminal phase costs because hospital and emergency visits were used as a death proxy. Also, recently approved therapies were not included, which may under-estimate advanced melanoma costs.

Conclusions: In this advanced melanoma population, optimal duration of the initial and terminal phases of care was 5 months immediately after diagnosis of metastasis and before death, respectively. Joinpoint regression can be used to provide data-supported phase of cancer care durations, but should be combined with clinical judgement.     

An information-based model for the differential treatment of gains and losses

This study defines reporting conservatism as a higher verification standard for probable gains compared to losses and builds a model that endogenously generates optimal behavior resembling an asymmetric preference for gains versus losses. Our model considers the setting where one party produces a resource and another tries to expropriate it. The key factor determining the extent of the gain-loss asymmetry is the level of information asymmetry or trust between the two parties. The information asymmetry-based results of our model provide a simpler explanation for the vast empirical literature on conservatism, where the bulk of the economic relationships among the parties appear to be information-based with little direct relation to explicit debt contracts, a factor that has been the focus of theoretical arguments. We also suggest new empirical analyzes.