German trade performance in times of slumping euro area markets

While the global financial crisis had a strong impact on economic activity in Germany, the impact of the euro area crisis on economic activity in Germany has so far been relatively mild. Trade flows by region reveal that German firms have recently redirected their exports towards the remaining growth spots of the world economy, in particular to Asia??s emerging economies. However, a continued crisis in the euro area is likely to put a considerable dent in German exports. While market forces have already triggered the rebalancing of intra-European trade flows, German exporters may play a helpful role in this process if firms in distressed countries circumvent high entry costs by integrating themselves into the global value chains of German exporters.     

Die Unbundling–Entscheidung im EU–Wettbewerbsverfahren gegen Microsoft

Kürzlich hat das europäische Gericht erster Instanz den Antrag des Software–Herstellers Microsoft abgelehnt, die von der EU–Kommission ausgesprochenen Auflagen einstweilig auszusetzen. In der Hauptsache ist dadurch aber noch keine Entscheidung gefallen. Die EU–Kommission hatte gegen Microsoft ein Wettbewerbsverfahren angestrengt, weil das Unternehmen technische Informationen zurückgehalten und Software als Paket verkauft hatte. Wurden beim aktuellen Wettbewerbsverfahren der EU–Kommission die Besonderheiten von Betriebssystem–Märkten ausreichend berücksichtigt?Dr. Stefan Kooths, 36, ist Leiter des Muenster Institute for Computational Economics an der Universität Münster.     

Aufschwung in Deutschland festigt sich trotz weltwirtschaftlicher Risiken

The German economy is already in the fifth year of a moderate upturn, which will continue in 2018. Global economic activity is also expanding rapidly. The increase in economic policy uncertainty seems to have few adverse effects on the world economy. The economic policy agenda of the new US government carries both risks and opportunities for the economic outlook for the US and the world. The Joint Economic Forecast predicts consumer prices in advanced economies to increase by 1.9% in 2018 and expects a change in the ECB’s policy.     

Mindestlohn: Warnung vor massiven Arbeitsplatzverlusten wenig fundiert — eine Replik

This article by Jürgen Kromphardt argues against the view that the introduction of a legal minimum wage of €8.50 per hour for all jobs will result in a massive reduction of jobs. He finds the theoretical foundation of this forecast very shaky, because the assumptions of this model are not fulfilled in the real world. It is thus unsurprising that empirical analyses do not corroborate it. Groll and Kooths respond that neither demand-side market power in the labour market nor supply-side price-setting capacity in the goods market are sufficient reasons to justify the introduction of minimum wages. They reiterate the major arguments both in the narrow environment of a static market model and in a more enriched framework that puts human action in the centre of economic analysis. They also show that topping up low incomes within the German ALG II transfer system can hardly be considered a wage subsidy.     

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Pandemie verzögert Aufschwung — Demografie bremst Wachstum

Wirtschaftsdienst - Das erste Jahr der Corona-Pandemie stand in Deutschland im Zeichen extremer Schwankungen der ökonomischen Aktivität und einer massiv gelähmten Binnenwirtschaft....     

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Ohne russisches Gas droht eine scharfe Rezession in Deutschland

Wirtschaftsdienst - Die deutsche Wirtschaft steuert durch schwieriges Fahrwasser. Die Auftriebskräfte durch den Wegfall der Pandemiebeschränkungen, die Nachwehen der Coronakrise und die...     

Aufschwung verliert an Fahrt – Weltwirtschaftliches Klima wird rauer

The economic upturn in Germany is entering its sixth year but is losing momentum due to both demand and supply side factors. On the one hand, Germany’s key sales markets have weakened in line with the slowdown in world trade. On the other hand, a growing number of firms face production side bottlenecks, especially in terms of labour and sourcing intermediate goods. This coincides with problems in the automotive industry related to the introduction of the new World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP), which has affected gross domestic product (GDP) growth due to the branch’s economic weight. These adjustment problems, however, should be overcome over the course of the winter. Fiscal stimuli will also take effect as of the beginning of 2019. After 1.7 % growth this year, GDP will increase at rates of 1.9 % in 2019 and 1.8 % in 2020.