Trade and growth

The National Economic Association introduced the W. Arthur Lewis Distinguished Lecture series in December 1985 at the Allied Social Sciences Association meetings in New York City. The Lewis Lecture is named in honor of the 1979 Nobel Laureate in Economics, much of whose research has been devoted to the problem of Third World economic development. In the same spirit, the Lewis Lectures are intended to explore the themes of global inequality. Third World poverty, and prospects and possibilities for change. The inaugural Lewis address was delivered by Lance Taylor, professor of economics and nutrition at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Taylor, an immensely creative economist, has led contemporary development economists in the analysis of disparities in the structural relationships between Northern (that is, more-developed) and Southern (that is, less-developed) countries. Taylor’s subject matter, “Trade and Growth,” constituted both a provocative assessment of the stale of knowledge in this area and a compelling indictment of the insights offered by conventional economics. Taylor’s address, presented December 28, 1985, provides a sterling beginning to what promises to be an important lecture series.     

Keiretsu centrality — profits and profit stability: A power dependence perspective

Prior studies compare keiretsu member firm and independent firm performance. Here, we use historical and power dependence perspectives to theorize that the Japanese keiretsu system primarily benefits the most central firms. We test this by examining the performance of two types of keiretsu firms (central firms and other member firms) within two types of keiretsu (horizontal and vertical). We hypothesize and find that: (1) central vertical keiretsu firms are more profitable than central horizontal keiretsu firms; (2) central horizontal keiretsu firms have greater profit stability than central vertical keiretsu firms; (3) central vertical keiretsu firms are more profitable than non-central vertical keiretsu firms; and (4) central horizontal keiretsu firms have greater profit stability than non-central horizontal keiretsu firms. Implications for managers and future research directions are discussed.     

Econometric Methods for Modelling Systems With a Mixture of i(1) and i(0) Variables

This paper considers structural models with both I(1) and I(0) variables. The structural shocks associated with either set of variables could be permanent or transitory. We classify the shocks as (P1,P0) and (T1,T0), where P/T distinguishes permanent/transitory, while 1/0 means they are attached to structural equations with either I(1) or I(0) variables as their ‘dependent’ variable. We show that P0 shocks can affect cointegration analysis and provide a formula to compute the permanent component if they are present. Finally, we reformulate a well‐known empirical structural vector autoregression showing the impact of P0 shocks when there are just long‐run parametric and sign restrictions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004 Taylor, Lance. 2004. Reconstructing macroeconomics. structuralist proposals and critique of the mainstream, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967 Goodwin, R.M. 1967. “A growth cycle”. In Socialism, capitalism and economic growth, Edited by: Feinstein, C.H. Cambridge, , UK: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008 Kauermann, G., Teuber, T. and Flaschel, P. 2008. “Estimating loops and cycles using penalized splines”. Bielefeld: CEM working paper.  [Google Scholar]).     

Sorting it out: pile sorting as a mixed methodology for exploring barriers to cancer screening

We discuss a mixed methodology for analyzing pile sorting data. We created a list of 14 barriers to colon cancer screening and recruited 18, 13, and 14 participants from three American Indian (AI) communities to perform pile sorting. Quantitative data were analyzed by cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling. Differences across sites were compared using permutation bootstrapping. Qualitative data collected during sorting were compiled by AI staff members who determined names for the clusters found in quantitative analysis. Results showed five clusters of barriers in each site although barriers in the clusters varied slightly across sites. Simulation demonstrated type I error rates around the nominal 0.05 level whereas power depended on the numbers of clusters, and between and within cluster variability.     

Domain‐Relevant Commitment and Individual Technical Innovation Performance

Individual innovators play a critical organizational role in that they generate and often champion technology and product ideas. Amidst an ongoing stream of organizational and team innovation research, few empirical studies focus on differences in individual innovation performance despite the importance of the individual innovator to a firm's innovation efforts. Based on goal commitment theory, we introduce a new domain‐relevant commitment construct and develop a conceptualization of conditional indirect effects. Our model suggests that relevant individual abilities enhance commitment to technical innovation and innovation performance while also insulating against the impact of situational variables, making employees' commitment to innovation performance less dependent upon context. Hypotheses are tested using two sources of data and a sample of 339 R&D professionals from a Fortune 100 industrial firm. Results suggest that commitment to innovation is a key motivational factor in explaining individual technical innovation performance. Situational characteristics impact motivation differently for individuals with lower vs. higher ability levels, even in this context in which truly low‐ability individuals, in the absolute sense, have been screened out by the employment selection process. The relationship between commitment and innovation performance is strengthened by higher levels of individual ability.     

HOW STOCK-SWAP MERGERS AFFECT SHAREHOLDER (AND BONDHOLDER) WEALTH: MORE EVIDENCE OF THE VALUE OF CORPORATE "FOCUS"

Alfred Chandler once described the U.S. conglomerate movement of the 1960s and '70s as an "historical aberration and a 'disaster." And the recent trend in corporate mergers and acquisitions away from "diversifying" acquisitions would seem to confirm Chandler's argument.
In what constitutes yet another piece of evidence in support of Chandler's argument, the authors of this article conducted a study of changes in debt and equity values in 260 stock-forstock mergers completed between 1963 and 1996. With a sample almost evenly divided between conglomerate and "related" mergers, the authors report significant net wealth gains for all securityholders as a group in "related" mergers, but generally insignificant net gains for securityholders in conglomerate mergers. Not surprisingly, target firm shareholders experienced net wealth gains in both kinds of acquisitions; but for acquiring company shareholders, there was a striking difference: economically and statistically significant gains for acquirers in related transactions, and significant losses for acquirers in conglomerate deals.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the study, however, was that even the bondholders of acquirers in related mergers benefited more than bondholders in conglomerate deals. The result is surprising because, to the extent bondholders benefit from corporate diversification, one would expect the opposite result. That bondholders in related mergers experience larger wealth increases than those of conglomerate acquirers is just one more sign of the dramatic differences in total value created by the two kinds of mergers.