Forecasting Real Inventories and the Anomaly of Money Illusion

While the transmission mechanism of inventory behavior in the business cycle has been studied, less effort has been devoted to applied forecasting of inventory change. Inventory fluctuations have accounted for a sizable portion of the changes in U.S. GDP during recessions over the past fifty years. In this paper, we report on out-of-sample forecasts of manufacturing and trade inventories generated by regression and neural network methodology. Our forecasting model is Metzlerian in approach, in that the divergence between actual and targeted sales is hypothesized as the primary cause of inventory imbalance. Our forecasts also rely on the slow adjustment of inventory investment to sales surprises. However, the likely presence of money illusion is a caveat to users, and we address several distortions it introduces to inventory management measures.     

Do Business Groups Change With Market Development?

Khanna and Yafeh hypothesize that business groups should be more common in economies with less developed markets and institutions. We test the time‐series version of this hypothesis by looking at changes in Chilean groups over 20 years (1990–2009). In this period, Chile experienced a deep economic transformation as measured by common proxies of market development (e.g., per capita income doubled). Despite this dramatic transformation, groups remained mostly unchanged in terms of relative size, industrial diversification, vertical integration, control structures, internal capital markets, and reliance on external funds (minority equity plus debt). Only leverage increased. Also, groups' initial conditions were uncorrelated with market development at the time of formation. This evidence casts doubts on the institutional‐voids hypothesis, although more subtle institutional voids, not captured by the type of macro proxies we use, might explain the existence and resilience of business groups.     

Corporate taxes and the demand for labor and capital in developing countries

This article provides evidence about the impact of corporate taxation on both labor and capital demand by private companies in a developing economy, using firm level data from Chile. Our results show that higher corporate tax rates reduce not only the demand for capital, but also the demand for labor due to complementarities between both inputs. An interesting element of the results presented in this article is the asymmetry between the effects of taxation according to company size. The impact on labor demand is significantly higher in large corporations than in small enterprises, while the demand for capital is more responsive to corporate tax changes in small firms. We can explain these results based on differences in credit constraints according to firm size.     

Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow?

The appropriate measure of cash flow for valuing corporate assets is net payout, which is the sum of dividends, interest, and net repurchases of equity and debt. Variation in net payout yield, the ratio of net payout to asset value, is mostly driven by movements in expected cash flow growth, instead of movements in discount rates. Net payout yield is less persistent than dividend yield and implies much smaller variation in long-horizon discount rates. Therefore, movements in the value of corporate assets can be justified by changes in expected future cash flow.     

Which Creditors’ Rights Drive Financial Deepening and Economic Development?

Since the 1990s financial economists have documented the essential role of creditors' rights in encouraging lenders to provide credit. This article demonstrates the central importance of creditors' ability to use movable assets such as inventories and accounts receivable (as distinct from immovable assets like real estate) as collateral when lending to business enterpriseses. Using a unique cross‐country, micro‐level loan data set that contains loan‐to‐value ratios for different assets, the authors found that the loan‐to‐values of loans that are collateralized with movable assets were lower in countries with weak collateral laws for movable assets, and that lending in such countries was biased toward the use of immovable assets. Using sector‐level data, the authors also found that weak movable collateral laws were associated with distortions in the allocation of resources that favored immovable‐based production and investment. The effects of resources that favored immovable‐based production and investment. The effects of the collateral law reform enacted in Slovakia in 2003 were held up as providing support for the authors' findings. The authors also investigated which aspects of movable assets collateralization regimes are most important for facilitating the use of movable assets as collateral. They concluded that the two critical features of such regimes are the registration of collateral interests—which facilitates monitoring of collateral and avoids double pledging—and the ability of creditors to avoid lengthy court proceedings when taking possession of collateral. These findings suggest that it would be relatively easy for many countries to increase their supply of credit because reforming these aspects of legal regimes is fairly straightforward with few political obstacles.     

Central bank intervention,the current account,and exchange rates

This paper seeks to explain exchange rate and current account or net foreign assets behavior under central bank foreign exchange rate intervention. To analyze central bank intervention we use the current account-net foreign assets identity, as well as the long-run monetary exchange rate model. The intervention function is one where exchange rate deviations from equilibrium are governed by nonlinear adjustments. That is, exchange rate deviations from their long-run equilibrium are such that the degree of reversion towards equilibrium increases with the size of the deviation from equilibrium. In this type of nonlinear function exchange rates determine the current account, and the current account in turn determines exchange rates. This iterative duality contrasts with several portfolio balance models where exchange rates are a function of trade, but trade is not a function of exchange rates. This two way causality is slightly more complex, but is also analytically richer than assuming that exchange rates change solely in a one step process as targeted by central banks. Managing exchange rates is posited to be an active iterative feedback process where intervention changes the current account, which may in turn make further intervention necessary.     

The internal capital markets of business groups: Evidence from intra-group loans

We study business groups? internal capital markets using a unique data set on intra-group lending in Chile (1990–2009). In line with groups? financing advantage, firms that borrow internally have higher investment, leverage, and return on equity (ROE) than other firms. At the margin, controlling shareholders have higher cash-flow rights in borrowing firms than in lending firms. However, there is no robust evidence of minority shareholders losing out from intra-group loans as tunneling predicts. Our evidence is consistent with the idea that strict regulation and disclosure requirements for intra-group loans, which are features of the Chilean market, reduce the risk of expropriation in pyramids.     

How collateral laws shape lending and sectoral activity

We demonstrate the central importance of creditors’ ability to use movable assets as collateral (as distinct from immovable real estate) when borrowing from banks. Using a unique cross-country micro-level loan data set containing loan-to-value ratios for different assets, we find that loan-to-values of loans collateralized with movable assets are lower in countries with weak collateral laws, relative to immovable assets, and that lending is biased toward the use of immovable assets. Using sector-level data, we find that weak movable collateral laws create distortions in the allocation of resources that favor immovable-based production and investment. An analysis of Slovakia's collateral law reform confirms our findings.     

Controlling shareholders and market timing in share issuance

We examine market timing in the equity issuance of firms controlled by large shareholders using a hand-collected data set of controlling shareholders' ownership stakes in Chile between 1990 and 2009. When a firm issues shares, the controlling shareholder can either maintain or change his ownership stake depending on how many of the new shares he subscribes. Issuance predicts poor future returns and is preceded by high returns, but only when the controlling shareholder's stake is significantly reduced. Consistent with market timing, the results are stronger in the absence of institutional investors and in hot issuance markets.