Leadership: A personnel economics approach

A theory of leadership is proposed and tested. Leaders perform many roles in a firm. They become leaders because they succeed at these tasks more than others and at least some of their successes are visible. The theory implies that leaders tend to be more able, place themselves in visible decision making situations more frequently and are generalists. Also, the most able leaders should be found in the highest variance industries, where decision making has the greatest payoff. The theory is tested using data on Stanford alumni and is confirmed. Leaders are generalists rather than specialists, both innately and in their pattern of skill acquisition.     

Encouraging Growth and Stability

When significant government action is needed and sought, as in the current financial crisis and weak economy, it is easy to forget the underlying market principles that have made the U.S. economy the strongest in the world. Adherence to these principles is the surest path to continued economic growth and stability over the long run. Of particular importance are policies that allow flexibility in labor markets; free movement of capital, unimpeded by excessive regulation; tax rates that minimize disincentives for the development of human and physical capital; and liberalization of international flows of goods, services, and capital. Regarding the current credit crisis, its effect on the real economy has been amplified by falling asset prices and high oil prices. Policy will be continuously evolving, but the $700 billion stabilization package is an important step. Presented at the National Association for Business Economics 50th Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., October 7, 2008     

Globalisation and the Market for Team-Mates

The globalisation of firms is explored at theoretical and empirical levels. The idea is that a global firm is a multi-cultural team. The existence of a global firm is somewhat puzzling. Combining workers who have different cultures, legal systems, and languages imposes costs on the firm that would not be present were all workers to conform to one standard. In order to offset the costs of cross-cultural dealing, there must be complementarities between the workers that are sufficiently important to overcome the costs. The search for the 'best practice' is analysed and empirical support from an examination of trading patterns is provided.     

Productivity and Wages

The United States’ output per capita is approximately 30 percent higher than in the developed European countries and Japan, and its productivity growth is among the highest in the world. Much of this record has been due to an environment that fosters growth in human and physical capital and innovation. Maintaining and enhancing this environment is key to the growth we need for our future. Flexibility in the labor force, fostering entrepreneurship, and high levels of education are major contributors to U.S. productivity increases, which have been tracked closely by growth of compensation. Future productivity growth will depend largely on incentives for investment in physical and human capital by appropriate tax policies, continuing a free flow of trade and foreign investment, and making sure that young Americans have the skills necessary to compete in the global economy. JEL Classification J2, J24     

Tenure and output

A key tenet of the theory of human capital is that investment in skills results in higher productivity. The previous literature has estimated the degree of investment in human capital for individuals by looking at individual wage growth as a proxy for productivity growth. In this paper, we have both wage and personal productivity data, and thus are able to measure of the increase in workers' output with tenure as evidence of the degree of learning on the job. The data is from an autoglass company. Most of production occurs at the individual level so measures of output are clear. We find a very steep learning curve in the first eight months on the job: output is 53 percent higher after eight months than it is initially. Our data show that these output gains with tenure are not reflected in equal percentage pay gains: pay profiles are much flatter than output profiles in the first year and a half on the job. For these data, using wage profiles significantly underestimates the amount of investment compared to the gains evident in output-tenure profiles. The pattern of productivity rising more rapidly than pay reverses after two years of tenure, although our evidence on this point is less reliable. Worker selection is also important. Workers who stay longer have higher output levels and faster early learning.     

The Future of Personnel Economics

Personnel economics has grown over the past 20 years to become a major branch of labour economics. Although much has been learned, many important questions remain. For example, are worker wage profiles dependent on individual attributes or is the firm more important in determining wage growth? Why are executives so highly paid and why does pay take the form that it does? How can cross-country differences in pay patterns be explained? Does variable pay provide better incentives than fixed hourly wages? Under which circumstances is one form of compensation used over another? These questions and others are investigated and some conjectures offered.