Asymmetric effects of industrial production,money supply and exchange rate changes on stock returns in Turkey

The aim of this article is twofold: First, it examines the asymmetric effects of industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns in Turkey by using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the periods of 1994:01–2017:05 and 2002:01–2017:05. Second, it tries to determine whether there is a change of these macroeconomic variables’ effects on stock returns after the 2001 financial crisis since after 2002 period represents a structural break from the past in terms of economic, political and macroeconomic policy approaches. The study finds that the effects of the changes in industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns are asymmetric, and the asymmetries are larger after the 2002 subsample compared to the full sample period. The empirical results further suggest that tight monetary policies appear to retard the stock returns more than easy monetary policies that stimulate them.     

The evolution of the monetary transmission channels in Turkey: evidence from a TVP-VAR model

This article investigates the evolution of the monetary transmission mechanisms in Turkey for the period from January 1986 to December 2016. To this aim, the impacts of monetary variables on the prices and economic activity are investigated with a time-varying vector autoregressive model based on. The evidences from the time-varying responses indicate that the adoption of inflation targeting policy has markedly affected the functioning of transmission channels. The results also suggest that local and global financial crises may magnify the impact of monetary policy shocks on the overall economy.     

A solution to log of dependent variables with negative observations

Journal of Productivity Analysis - Negative observations pose a problem in econometric models that apply log-transformation to the data. We propose a simple yet effective solution to this problem...     

Price dispersion and optimal price categories with limited memory consumers

In this paper, we study consumers with limited memory and examine the effects of their price categorization on the pricing strategies of competing firms. The valuations of consumers are assumed to be heterogeneous. We find that it is possible to observe price dispersion even when each firm charges a single price if the consumers categorize prices non‐optimally. Moreover, we demonstrate that the likelihood of a price dispersion outcome is reduced when consumers with limited memory set up the price categories optimally. These findings suggest that the consumers' limited memory and their sub‐optimal behavior, that is, their inability to choose price categories optimally can be a reason for observed price dispersion.     

When do the stock market returns to new product preannouncements predict product performance? Empirical evidence from the U.S. automotive industry

Substantial research has examined how stock market reactions to marketing actions affect subsequent marketing decisions. However, prior research provides limited insights into whether abnormal stock returns to a marketing action actually predict the future performance resulting from that action. This study focuses on new product preannouncements (NPPAs) and investigates the relationship between short-term stock market returns to an NPPA and the post-launch new product performance under various industry and firm conditions. Findings based on a dynamic panel data analysis of 208 NPPAs in the U.S. automotive industry between 2001 and 2014 reveal that stock returns associated with an NPPA are not an appropriate forward-looking measure of future product performance. However, under specific conditions (i.e., when the preannouncement is specific, the preannounced new product has low innovativeness, the preannouncing firm has a high reputation and invests heavily in advertising, and the preannouncement environment is less competitive), abnormal stock returns to NPPAs actually predict the future performance of new products. Thus, this study extends the marketing–finance and innovation literature with its focus on the conditions that affect the predictive power of immediate stock returns for the future performance of new products.     

Battese-coelli estimator with endogenous regressors

We provide a framework for dealing with the endogeneity problem in the Battese-Coelli estimator for productive efficiency measurement.     

Franchisees' trust in and satisfaction with franchise partnerships

This paper aims to establish the relationship between the antecedents of trust, trust itself, and franchisee satisfaction. Taking its cue from power-dependence, international business, and social exchange theories, the paper contributes to the franchise literature by offering a more comprehensive theoretical perspective to aid understanding of trust development in and satisfaction with franchise partnerships. Drawing on a multi-sector survey of Turkish franchisees, the study provides empirical evidence of the impact of the franchisors' role performance and cultural sensitivity on franchisees' trust in and satisfaction with franchise partnerships. Furthermore, this research demonstrates the central role of communication in the development of franchisees' trust.     

Information Unraveling Revisited: Disclosure of Horizontal Attributes

This paper analyzes in a spatial framework how much information a seller discloses about the variety he sells when he faces a buyer with a privately known taste for variety. I identify an equilibrium in which, for each possible variety, the seller's optimal strategy consists of either fully disclosing the variety or disclosing how far it is from the buyer's expected taste. The set of varieties the seller fully discloses monotonically expands as the buyer's taste for variety becomes stronger. I show that this is the unique undefeated equilibrium. From a policy perspective, mandating full disclosure is socially harmful.