Accidents will happen: safety-critical knowledge and automated control systems

This article presents findings from a study of control operators that raise concerns about safety-critical knowledge, culture and training. It is argued that the adoption of automated control systems can hinder the transfer of knowledge amongst operators, and this becomes an increasingly serious hazard as tacit knowledge is lost because of employee turnover.     

Efficient Stochastic Modeling for Large and Consolidated Insurance Business: Interest Rate Sampling Algorithms

Abstract

One of the challenges of stochastic asset/liability modeling for large insurance businesses is the run time. Using a complete stochastic asset/liability model to analyze a large block of business is often too time consuming to be practical. In practice, the compromises made are reducing the number of runs or grouping assets into asset categories. This paper focuses on the strategies that enable efficient stochastic modeling for large and consolidated insurance business blocks. Efficient stochastic modeling can be achieved by applying effective interest rate sampling algorithms that are presented in this paper. The algorithms were tested on a simplified asset/liability model ASEM (Chueh 1999) as well as a commercial asset/liability model using assets and liabilities of the Aetna Insurance Company of America (AICA), a subsidiary of Aetna Financial Services. Another methodology using the New York 7 scenarios is proposed and could become an enhancement to the Model Regulation on cash flow testing, thus requiring all companies to do stochastic cash flow testing in a uniform, nononerous manner.     

Exact confidence sets and goodness-of-fit methods for stable distributions

Usual inference methods for stable distributions are typically based on limit distributions. But asymptotic approximations can easily be unreliable in such cases, for standard regularity conditions may not apply or may hold only weakly. This paper proposes finite-sample tests and confidence sets for tail thickness and asymmetry parameters (α$\alpha$ and β$\beta$) of stable distributions. The confidence sets are built by inverting exact goodness-of-fit tests for hypotheses which assign specific values to these parameters. We propose extensions of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Shapiro–Wilk and Filliben criteria, as well as the quantile-based statistics proposed by McCulloch (1986) in order to better capture tail behavior. The suggested criteria compare empirical goodness-of-fit or quantile-based measures with their hypothesized values. Since the distributions involved are quite complex and non-standard, the relevant hypothetical measures are approximated by simulation, and p$p$-values are obtained using Monte Carlo (MC) test techniques. The properties of the proposed procedures are investigated by simulation. In contrast with conventional wisdom, we find reliable results with sample sizes as small as 25. The proposed methodology is applied to daily electricity price data in the US over the period 2001–2006. The results show clearly that heavy kurtosis and asymmetry are prevalent in these series.     

Challenges to employment at will: A survey of the natural gas transmission industry

The natural gas transmission industry, once paternalistic towards its employees, is feeling the effects of challenges to the doctrine of employment at will, and is responding with policies that will increase managerial prerogatives. This article approaches the issue from the points of view both of law and of economics, and includes a survey of pipeline managers who must develop viable work rules in an environment of increasing expectations of employee rights and tightening market competition.     

Naturalizing bodies and places: Tourism Media Campaigns and Heterosexualities in Costa Rica and New Zealand

Drawing on feminist, queer and poststructuralist theories of sexuality this article contributes to the field of tourism branding. Research findings on tourism media campaigns-New Zealand’s ‘100% Pure campaign’, and Costa Rica’s ‘No Artificial Ingredients’—illustrate how places and bodies are co-constructed and heterosexualized. We argue that both campaigns employ familiar landscape tropes of ‘nature’, ‘pureness’, ‘wilderness’, and ‘escape’, which discursively construct places and bodies as ‘natural’, ‘exotic’, and ‘romantic’. We draw on ethnographic and interview data to consider the lived experiences of these discourses for tourists and tourism businesses. By paying attention to the sexualized representations made and remade through tourism media campaigns the article challenges hegemonic conceptualizations of sexualities and offers an exciting future research agenda for tourism studies.     

Fashion retailing and the bottom line: The effects of generational cohorts,gender, fashion fanship,attitudes and impulse buying on fashion expenditure

This study examines the influence of demographic (e.g. gender and generational cohort) and psychographic (e.g. fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying) drivers on frequency and levels of expenditure on fashion purchases. Using regression analysis, the results suggest that for weekly and monthly expenditure, gender and fashion fanship were significant influences, while for yearly expenditure, gender and impulse buying were significant. Attitudes towards fashion had no significant influence on expenditure. Females purchase more often and were significantly different from males on yearly expenditure, fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying. Generation Y is higher on purchase frequency, fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying compared with other cohorts under investigation.