Accidents will happen: safety-critical knowledge and automated control systems

This article presents findings from a study of control operators that raise concerns about safety-critical knowledge, culture and training. It is argued that the adoption of automated control systems can hinder the transfer of knowledge amongst operators, and this becomes an increasingly serious hazard as tacit knowledge is lost because of employee turnover.     

Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models

This paper considers finite sample motivated structural change tests in the multivariate linear regression model with application to energy demand models, in which case commonly used structural change tests remain asymptotic. As in Dufour and Kiviet [1996. Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 70, 39–68], we account for intervening nuisance parameters through a two-stage maximized Monte Carlo test procedure. Our contributions can be classified into five categories: (i) we extend tests for which a finite-sample theory has been supplied for Gaussian distributions to the non-Gaussian context; (ii) we show that Bai et al. [1998. Testing and dating common breaks in multi-variate time series. The Review of Economic Studies 65 (3), 395–432] test severely over-rejects and propose exact variants of this test; (iii) we consider predictive break test approaches which generalize tests in Dufour [1980. Dummy variables and predictive tests for structural change. Economics Letters 6, 241–247] and Dufour and Kiviet [1996. Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 70, 39–68]; (iv) we propose exact (non-Bonferonni based) extensions of the multivariate outliers test from Wilks [1963. Multivariate statistical outliers. Sankhya Series A 25, 407–426] to models with covariates; (v) we apply these tests to the energy demand system analyzed by Arsenault et al. [1995. A total energy demand model of Québec: forecasting properties. Energy Economics 17 (2), 163–171]. For two out of the six industrial sectors analyzed over the 1962–2000 period, break and further goodness-of-fit and diagnostic tests allow to identify (and correct) specification problems arising from historical regulatory changes or (possibly random) industry-specific effects. The procedures we propose have potential useful applications in statistics, econometrics and finance (e.g. event studies).     

Comparing the impact of management support on police officers’ perceptions of discretionary power and engagement: Australia,USA and Malta

Abstract

This paper uses Social Exchange Theory as a lens for comparing the impact of management support upon police perceptions of discretionary power and employee engagement, across three countries. A survey-based, self-report process collected data from 193 police officers in Australia, 588 from the USA, and 249 from Malta. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the data. The findings suggest a significantly different management support context across the three countries, as well as significantly different perceptions of discretionary power. Across the three countries, police perceived relatively poor satisfaction with organizational management support and only some engagement levels. However, USA police perceived significantly more discretionary power than the other country samples. These findings provide greater clarity about the link between management support, discretionary power and engagement for the police officers. Since employee engagement likely affects policing outcomes, the findings suggest that poor management support of police officers could negatively affect the provided service. Potential strategies to enhance police engagement include (a) training police managers about how to manage so as to promote greater engagement, and (b) modifying police managers’ performance indicators in line with achieving better police engagement.     

Pricing-to-market tests in instrumental regressions: Case of the transportation equipment industry

Pricing-to-market (PTM) theory suggests that exporting monopolistic firms adjust their destination-specific mark-ups in the face of exchange rate shocks. A large proportion of the existing evidence for PTM comes from Wald tests applied to OLS- and IV-estimated parameters of single-equation models. Such tests can seriously over-reject in the presence of endogeneity and weak instruments so that some of the available results supporting PTM could be spurious. In this paper we revisit the PTM evidence for Japanese and German exporting firms in the transportation equipment industry. Using the model of Marston (1990), we apply exogeneity and LR-LIML-based tests for which the error probability is controlled irrespective of the quality of the available instruments. Our results show right-hand-side endogeneity in almost all of the examined PTM equations. In addition, we find that statistical decisions often differ depending on whether they are based on the traditional Wald test or on our proposed test.The authors would like to thank Philippe Barla, Jean-Thomas Bernard, Christos Constantatos, Larry Schembri, seminar participants at the Bank of Canada, and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. Thanks also to Richard Marston for providing data. Finally, a special thanks to Marjorie Santos for excellent research assistance. All remaining errors are our own and should not be attributed to the Bank of Canada.First version received: May 2002/Final version received: December 2002     

Personal service companies and the public sector

Off-payroll workers in the UK, including personal service companies (PSCs), engaged by the public sector have been giving ‘assurance’ of their tax position to departments in the sector since 2012. Departments must be satisfied with the assurance. For PSCs this requires awareness of complex tax legislation (IR35), which is aimed at preventing tax avoidance. Costs may be incurred in attaining the necessary knowledge. This may bring into question costs incurred in protecting tax revenue. No similar obligation exists in the private sector.     

Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Sustainable Seafood Made in Europe

Sustainability of increasing relevance also for seafood markets. The aim of this contribution is to analyze consumer preferences and their willingness to pay (WTP) for different sustainability claims, and to identify consumer segments according to their WTP. The contingent valuation method was applied to elicit consumers’ WTP in eight European countries. The WTP varies between seven and almost 20%, depending on attribute and country. Three consumer groups become apparent: the largest group without any additional WTP, a smaller group with a moderate additional WTP of plus 17%, and a very small group with an additional WTP of more than 40%. Clear differences between countries are obvious regarding preferences for different sustainability attributes, particularly in the segment with the highest WTP. A fraction of the consumers is willing to pay significantly higher prices for sustainably produced fish from Europe: given that trustful standards are applied and well communicated.     

Hotel Manager - An Unsuitable Job for a Woman?

Although the majority of students training for hotel and catering management in Britain are female, only a handful of women have attained the post of general manager in a major hotel. This article argues that women's lack of success in line management within medium and large hotels can be explained by examining the traditional career route to hotel manager, characterised by a long apprenticeship, progress through informal contacts and high geographical mobility, and the way the role of hotel manager is defined, with its strong emphasis on the manager as ‘figurehead’. It is argued that if women do not aspire to become hotel managers this is a response to the way this job is defined and the lack of opportunities they perceive.     

Going to the movies: cinema development in Singapore

Using readings of Foucault's heterotropia and Friedberg's imaginary mobility, this paper analyses movie-going as leisure practice. In highlighting the paucity of research in this area, the paper argues that such practice should be understood as a symbolic interaction between people's behaviour and the spaces that they occupy. This theorization is applied to Singapore, where per capita movie-going is amongst the highest in the world. The paper illustrates how, in Singapore, the development of cinemas has been used to underpin land use policies associated with the relocation of residential areas and social policies related to the growth in consumerism. While effectively alienating older audiences, the paper argues that the spatial and cultural metonymy of the cinema with other primary consumption sites – the mall and the fast food outlet – offers young people reassurance about the growing centrality of consumerism to contemporary social life in Singapore. We argue that the cinema offers a temporary escape from the regulation of social life – access to ‘deviant’ space. However, this same consumerism that facilitates such access simultaneously denotes conformity with the dominant ideology: acceptance of the heterotropic possibilities – and limitations – of cinema and movie-going as leisure practice.     

Efficient Stochastic Modeling for Large and Consolidated Insurance Business: Interest Rate Sampling Algorithms

Abstract

One of the challenges of stochastic asset/liability modeling for large insurance businesses is the run time. Using a complete stochastic asset/liability model to analyze a large block of business is often too time consuming to be practical. In practice, the compromises made are reducing the number of runs or grouping assets into asset categories. This paper focuses on the strategies that enable efficient stochastic modeling for large and consolidated insurance business blocks. Efficient stochastic modeling can be achieved by applying effective interest rate sampling algorithms that are presented in this paper. The algorithms were tested on a simplified asset/liability model ASEM (Chueh 1999) as well as a commercial asset/liability model using assets and liabilities of the Aetna Insurance Company of America (AICA), a subsidiary of Aetna Financial Services. Another methodology using the New York 7 scenarios is proposed and could become an enhancement to the Model Regulation on cash flow testing, thus requiring all companies to do stochastic cash flow testing in a uniform, nononerous manner.     

Learning to glow

Create a cooperative environment within your organization and you will radiate energy, innovation and success, says Lynda Gratton .