An empirical note about estimation and forecasting Latin American Forex returns volatility: the role of long memory and random level shifts components

Portuguese Economic Journal - A set of RLS-type models with ARMA and ARFIMA dynamics is estimated and compared in a forecasting exercise with ARFIMA, GARCH and FIGARCH models. It is an extension of...     

Behaviour‐Based and Outcome‐Based Control Systems: A Meta‐Analytic Study

Sales control systems are instruments used by firms to improve performance and other organizational outcomes. To understand their antecedents and consequences, this paper conducts a meta‐analysis based on 104 studies. The results showed significant relationships between behaviour‐ and outcome‐based control systems and the complexity of the products, bonuses, financial performance, sales innovation, organizational support and satisfaction with supervisors. The outcomes revealed that behaviour‐based control systems were the most effective mechanism in turbulent markets and for determining financial performance. However, outcome‐based control systems were the most efficient instrument for complex products.     

Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework

The time-varying natural rate of interest and output and the implied medium-term inflation target for the US economy are estimated over the period 1983–2005. The estimation is conducted within the New Keynesian framework using Bayesian and Kalman-filter estimation techniques. With the model-consistent estimate of the output gap, we get a small weight on the backward-looking component of the New Keynesian Phillips curve—similar to what is obtained in studies which use labor share of income as a driver for inflation (e.g., Galí, Eur Econ Rev 45(7):1237–1270, 2001; Eur Econ Rev 47(4):759–760, 2003). The turning points of the business cycle are nevertheless broadly consistent with those of CBO/NBER. We find considerable variation in the natural rate of interest while the inflation target has been close to 2% over the last decade.     

Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation*

This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4°C warming, and predict 13, 38 and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two‐stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long‐run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily following of some areas, permanently reducing the irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for a moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such a reduction are likely to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are estimated. Adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated and investments in efficient irrigation. A shift away from perennial to annual crops is also predicted as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some years are very low.     

Food Package Familiarity and Perceived Amount of Verbal Information: The Moderating Effect of Frugal Behavior

ABSTRACT

This paper discusses the moderating effect of frugal behavior on the relationship between food package familiarity and the perceived amount of verbal information. Two experiments were conducted on food packaging to analyze two central points: (a) the relationship between food package familiarity and the perceived amount of verbal information and (b) the moderating effect of frugal behavior on this relationship. The studies demonstrate the negative influence of food package familiarity on the perceived amount of verbal information. We demonstrate that the greater (smaller) the familiarity with food packaging is, the smaller (greater) the visual attention to the verbal information will be. Second, we show that frugal behavior moderates this behavior. Our experiment shows that a greater (smaller) tendency toward frugal behavior tends to have a positive (maintain negative) effect on the relationship between food package familiarity and the perceived amount of verbal information.     

The Role of the Non-Farm Rural Sector in the Reconstruction of the Balkans

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Bayesian Unconditional Quantile Regression: An Analysis of Recent Expansions in Wage Structure and Earnings Inequality in the US 1992–2009

We develop Bayesian inference for an unconditional quantile regression model. Our approach provides better estimates in the upper tail of the wage distribution as well as valid small sample confidence intervals for the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition. We analyze the recent changes in the US wage structure using data from the CPS Outgoing Rotation Group from 1992 to 2009. We find that the largest part of the recent changes is explained mainly by differences in returns to education while the decline in the unionization rate has a small impact, and that earnings inequality is rising more at the top end of the wage distribution.     

New Corporate Forms: One Viable Solution to Advancing Environmental Sustainability

There is a clear trend in corporate governance toward increased attention to the environmental and social impacts of business operations. Major consulting firms are advising Fortune 500 companies on how to become more environmentally sustainable, private equity and “impact” investors are measuring environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors, and voluntary reporting and shareholder resolutions on issues of environmental sustainability are on the rise. While traditional corporate forms allow companies to embrace social and environmental responsibility with some measure of success, various real and perceived risks encourage directors to focus on short‐term profitability. Even if a company has a strong social mission at inception, founders often have difficulty “anchoring their mission” over time. And the lack of required disclosure of social and environmental performance makes it more difficult for investors to evaluate and compare companies. Many believe that the institutionalized mispricing of natural resources and the continued failure to price externalities, combined with the progressive nature of climate change, require the transformation of both business and law. This article discusses social and environmental sustainability within the traditional corporate form and then explores three emerging alternatives that are now being used by businesses in California: limited liability corporations (LLCs); benefit corporations (B corps); and flexible purpose corporations (FPCs). Of these three alternatives, FPCs—a corporate form that requires shareholders to agree on one or more social missions with management and the board—may be best suited to meet the needs of the many small private firms (as well as some large public companies) that, whether for purely economic or altruistic reasons, plan to integrate ESG into their operations.     

I do not own a car any more: An analysis of possessions’ disposal and changes in consumers’ identities

This research aims to understand the process of cars' disposal, its context, its influences and its impacts on the meanings for consumers and their identities, as well as the new behaviours of these consumers when living without their car(s). We conducted, analysed and interpreted 20 in‐depth interviews with consumers that had previously owned at least one car and had no financial reasons for disposing of their car(s), but had decided to do it, and started to live without them, adopting alternative methods of transportation. Our findings show that these consumers faced a complicated process regarding the disposal of their car(s) but, due to the changes in their circumstances, they re‐signified relevant concepts that were connected to the ownership of a car: Their perception of freedom, comfort, safety and status changed during and after the disposal of their car(s). We also noticed that there were implications in terms of changes in their attitudes and behaviour as both citizens and consumers. As a contribution to the literature, our findings indicate that the re‐signifying of concepts related to possession of the object as well as changes in attitudes and behaviours that consumers undergo in the postdisposal stage, must be included in the model proposed for evaluating consumer behaviour in product disposal.