Information from successive changes in gold and silver prices during phases of the business cycles

This paper concerns the behavior of gold and silver prices on a daily, weekly and monthly time span during January 1970 to December 1989. The methodology consists of extracting the predictive power of time series of changes in past prices for obtaining optimal forecasts for next-period changes in prices. Optimizations are made in the context of information theory via minimizing the degree of diversity between the actual and predicted changes in prices. This methodology has merit in that it does not rest on, generally speaking, unacceptable assumptions regarding the shape of the distribution, stationarity of variance or its existence. The behavior of gold and silver prices are studied during peak to trough and trough to peak of the business cycles over 1970–1989. It is generally shown that information contained in past prices of gold and silver does not allow one to predict next-period changes in prices in the short run. However, longer-term predictions are possible. This study further reveals that as the length of the time interval expands, gold prices exhibit a higher degree of dependency on past prices than silver.     

Conventions and Gaming in Las Vegas: Friends,Enemies, or Strangers?

As cities look at various industries to strengthen their economies, officials have begun to examine conventions and gaming more closely as they have often been considered “recession-proof.” This study utilizes time series regression to analyze the effects of convention attendance and hotel occupancy on monthly gaming revenues for Las Vegas from 2002 to 2013. Three commonly held opposing viewpoints in trade literature are that conventions reduce, augment, or complement gaming. These viewpoints produced the hypotheses for this study. It was found that convention attendance had no significant relationship with gaming revenue; however, citywide hotel occupancy was found to have a significant positive relationship with gaming revenue. This finding rules out the reduction and augmentation hypotheses.     

International Market Segmentation and Cross-Export Strategies Development Case Study: Iranian Furniture Industry

ABSTRACT

By developing an international market and significant differences between countries in this regard, segmentation becomes an increasingly important concept in marketing. In this article, the international market of Iranian furniture industry is segmented and cross-exporting strategies are developed to increase the market share of Iranian furniture in each segment. To achieve this, two distance functions are introduced based on correlation between export groups to cluster countries with k-means algorithm. After market segmentation for increasing sales in each segment, cross-exporting strategies are predicted by extracting association rules in each segment based on Apriori algorithm to set export baskets.     

Interpretive management: what general managers can learn from design

The past two decades have seen a dramatic acceleration in the pace of marketplace change. Companies have abandoned the old hierarchical model, with its clean functional divisions and clear lines of authority, and adopted flatter, less bureaucratic structures. But if most organizations have begun to adapt to the uncertainty of rapid change, most managers have not. They remain locked into the mechanical mind-set of the industrial age--that is, they assume that any management challenge can be translated into a clearly defined problem for which an optimal solution can be found. That approach works in stable markets and even in markets that change in predictable ways. Today's markets, however, are increasingly unstable and unpredictable. Managers can never know precisely what they're trying to achieve or how best to achieve it. They can't even define the problem, much less engineer a solution. The challenges facing the general manager in these circumstances, the authors argue, resemble those typically confronted by design managers. In the unpredictable world of research and design, neither the flow of the development process nor its end point can be defined at the outset. Rather than the traditional analytical approach to management, the design world requires an interpretive one. And that approach is equally well suited to rapidly changing, unpredictable markets. The authors describe how companies such as Levi Strauss & Company and Chiron Corporation have stayed at the top of their industries by adopting just such an interpretive approach to management.     

Information content of U.S. treasury inflation-indexed bonds

U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds are designed to provide a stable real return before taxes. A comparison between these bonds and conventional bonds reveals that the effective real yield of U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is attractive. The econometric results suggest, however, that the real rate provided by U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is not independent of inflation, implying that the Fisher hypothesis is contradicted by the data. An implication of negative correlation between the real rate and inflation is that the time to buy U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is when inflation is low. While the yields on U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds are shown to reflect inflation by a lag of about one month, nominal interest rates do not fully adjust to inflation. The author would like to thank Richard A. Cohn and Mahmoud Wahab for their advice and comments.     

Sources of support and expatriation: a multiple stakeholder perspective of expatriate adjustment and performance in Malaysia

This research tests the role of perceived support from multinational corporations and host-country nationals for the adjustment of expatriates and their spouses while on international assignments. The investigation is carried out with matched data from 134 expatriates and their spouses based in foreign multinationals in Malaysia. The results highlight the different reliance on support providers that expatriates and their accompanying spouses found beneficial for acclimatizing to the host-country environment. Improved adjustment in turn was found to have positive effects on expatriates' performance. The research findings have implications for both international human resource management researchers and practitioners.     

Extrinsic Rewards,Intrinsic Motivation,and New Product Development Performance

Reward structures can have a significant impact on the performance of new product development (NPD) teams. However, there are several gaps in our understanding of how different types of extrinsic rewards influence the creative performance of NPD teams. Drawing on key theoretical objectives for advancing rewards-creativity research in general, and NPD research in particular, this study incorporates a cognitive and behavioral view of rewards use. In so doing, we distinguish between three kinds of extrinsic rewards: financial, recognition, and social (based on their properties). We then draw upon self-determination theory to hypothesize the differential effects of three types of extrinsic rewards on intrinsic task motivation, and subsequently the creative performance of NPD teams. The proposed framework is tested using two rounds of survey data from 238 members of 64 NPD teams in the high-tech industry. Results of a multilevel structural equation modeling (MLSEM) analysis show that financial rewards have a negative relationship with intrinsic task motivation, while recognition and social rewards have a positive influence. Complexity of the product being developed not only helps to mitigate the negative effects of financial rewards on intrinsic task motivation, but it also reduces the positive effects of social rewards on intrinsic task motivation. Intrinsic task motivation is found to have a positive effect on NPD creative performance in terms of both the developed product’s degree of innovation and its quality. Theoretical and managerial implications are explored.     

Age‐Related Differences in Emotion Regulation within the Context of Sad and Happy TV Programs

The marketing literature on program context includes several studies on the influence of program‐induced positive and negative emotions on the evaluation of embedded television advertisements. While the majority of these studies have been conducted with younger adults, new discoveries on the differentiated processes of emotion regulation among younger and older adults are reviving interest in this topic. The present study examined the impact of television program context on program‐induced affective reactions and on the processing of embedded television advertisements among younger and older adults. Program‐induced mood valence was manipulated by using excerpts from sad and happy films. This research shows that affective reactions elicited by sad and happy television programs, as well as attitude toward the advertisement, differ between younger and older adults. The level of sadness reported by older adults was lower than that of younger adults within a sad program context. The results also show a negative influence of a sad (versus a happy) program on attitude toward the advertisement among younger adults but not among older adults. These results confirm that in advancing age, it is possible to shape emotional responses to suit regulation goals.     

Covariance Stationarity of International Equity Markets Returns: Recent Evidence

Intertemporal stationarity tests of the variance-covariance matrix of monthly returns on seven international equity indices are conducted over the most recent period. Pairwise covariances are then decomposed into their component statistics for further examination of the source(s) of stationarity or nonstationarity. Historical analysis reveals that pairwise covariances were invariably highly nonstationary over forecast intervals that varied in length between one month and five years. Reliance on historical covariances to estimate future covariances over a hold-out sample produced suboptimal results in comparison to an alternative naive forecasting model. These findings were robust in that they were invariant to whether nominal or real returns were used. Evidence on the intertemporal stationarity of the vector of mean returns is also provided.