Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population

"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."     

On Choosing and Bounding Probability Metrics

When studying convergence of measures, an important issue is the choice of probability metric. We provide a summary and some new results concerning bounds among some important probability metrics/distances that are used by statisticians and probabilists. Knowledge of other metrics can provide a means of deriving bounds for another one in an applied problem. Considering other metrics can also provide alternate insights. We also give examples that show that rates of convergence can strongly depend on the metric chosen. Careful consideration is necessary when choosing a metric.     

A TEST OF BAYESIAN LEARNING FROM FARMER TRIALS OF NEW WHEAT VARIETIES*

In this study, elicited estimates of farmers' subjective beliefs about the mean and variance of wheat variety yields were used to test propositions about Bayesian learning developed in the recent literature on innovation adoption. A series of empirical tests of the Bayesian adoption model were conducted using beliefs elicited from farm surveys conducted in 1982, 1983 and 1984. The results of the analysis neither confirm nor reject the Bayesian approach as a model of how farmers revise subjective beliefs, but do raise serious doubts about its realism, and suggest some issues requiring further investigation. Shortcomings in the elicitation techniques are discussed and the assumptions of the Bayesian model are reviewed.     

Qualities needed in the workplace： Views of college of business undergraduate students

The problem of this study was to determine the views of undergraduate college of business students concerning skill and competencies needed for employment. A questionnaire was developed and administered to junior and senior level students enrolled in the college of business. 360 students completed the questionnaire. Students ranked ＂Integrity/Honesty＂ and ＂Good Work Ethic＂ as the two most important qualities needed for employment. Students believed that ＂Knowledge of a Second Language＂ was the least important quality needed for employment.     

Mapping EORTC-QLQ-C30 to EQ-5D-3L in patients with colorectal cancer

Aims: The primary aim of this study was to perform a mapping of the EORTC-QLQ-C30 scores to EQ-5D-3L for the SIRFLOX study; a large dataset of patients with previously untreated liver-only or liver-dominant metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). A secondary aim was to compare the predictive validity of existing mappings from EORTC-QLQ-C30 to EQ-5D-3L conducted in other cancers.

Methods and materials: Questionnaires (completed within 529 patients) were used in a linear mixed regression to model EQ-5D-3L utility values (scored using the UK tariff) as a function of the five function scores, nine symptom scores, and the global score from the EORTC-QLQ-C30 questionnaire. A Tobit regression was also performed. The mean EQ-5D-3L values for the SIRFLOX trial were calculated and compared with predicted EQ-5D-3L values derived using published mapping algorithms.

Results: The linear mixed regression model provided a satisfactory mapping between the EORTC-QLQ-C30 and the EQ-5D-3L, whilst the Tobit model did not perform as well. When utilities from the SIRFLOX data were calculated with previously published mapping studies, three out of five studies performed well (< 10% mean difference).

Limitations: The main limitation of the study was the lack of meaningful observations post-progression (67 paired observations). For this reason, this study was unable to test whether the mapping holds by disease stage. Additionally, although the study adds to the literature of mappings to the EQ-5D-3L, it is not known how results would differ using the EQ-5D-5L.

Conclusion: This study is the first of its kind in liver-only or liver-dominant mCRC, and mCRC in general. The mapping constructed showed a good fit to the data and provides practitioners with an additional mapping between EORTC-QLQ-C30 to EQ-5D-3L using a large dataset (529 patients, 707 paired observations). The study also confirmed the generalizability of mappings published by Proskorovsky, Kontodimopoulos, and Longworth to liver-only or liver-dominant mCRC.     

The Challenges of Full-Service Restaurant Brand Internationalization: A United States/Canada Perspective

The purpose of this research is to identify the challenges faced by full-service restaurant brands internationalizing across the border between the United States and Canada. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data from 54 senior executives across the US and Canada. The results show differences in the challenges faced by U.S. versus Canadian full-service restaurant brands when they are expanding across the border based upon the context of the full-service restaurant and how they are internationalizing. This is the first empirical study about cross border expansion challenges for U.S. and Canadian full-service restaurant brands.     

Trust and networking in inter-firm relations: the case of eco-industrial development

Despite much rhetoric concerning the implementation of sustainable development within local and regional economic development strategies, very few concrete examples exist of projects that combine economic, social and environmental aims. However, recently, a number of developments have occurred, based around ideas drawn from industrial ecology. These eco-industrial parks seek to reduce environmental impacts, while at the same time improving business competitiveness and creating jobs. Eco-industrial parks rely upon creating networks of material and by-product flows between participating firms. However, it is frequently assumed that the trust and cooperation between firms that this involves will arise automatically. In this paper it is argued that a much more nuanced approach is needed, drawing upon work in economic geography and regional economics on trust, networking and untraded interdependencies.