Contract modifications and the basis behavior of live cattle futures

The purpose of this study was to assess the basis behavior of the Live Cattle Futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before and after the 1995 contract changes. Additionally, an alternative method of basis calculation utilizing weighted mean futures prices versus settlement futures prices was compared to determine which method provides a better representation of the basis level. Within a regression model with heteroskedascity error framework, we found that the level of nearby basis in the period after June 1995 has shifted lower and the average monthly open interest of net commercial long positions has substantially increased after the contract modifications. These empirical results are consistent with the notion that more long activity entered the market in response to the contract modifications. Additionally, an alternative (new) measure of basis calculation (cash price minus weighted mean futures price) produced similar results to two other commonly used measures. In conclusion, the 1995 contract changes have neither increased nor decreased the volatility of live cattle basis. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:557–590, 2004     

Reforming the Direct–Indirect Tax Mix

This paper provides a new framework for evaluating the welfare effects of commodity tax reforms. It is shown that tax reforms are welfare improving if and only if they satisfy the following intuitive property: on average, consumer prices fall for commodities with high marginal excess burdens. The rule is then applied to analyze a shift from differentiated commodity taxation to direct flat-rate taxation of labour income. The welfare impact of such reforms can be decomposed into two effects: (i) the increase in welfare associated with substitution among taxed commodities, and (ii) the loss in welfare associated with substitution between commodities and leisure. On balance, a shift towards direct taxation is desirable when inter-commodity substitution effects are large relative to commodity–leisure substitution effects. The analysis allows us to reconcile the apparently conflicting results of the tax reform and optimal taxation literatures.     

企业处理顾客、供销商、同业者关系的战略观点

为了可持续发展,忠诚的顾客关系建立在企业集中战略资源满足顾客合理需求的基础上,是具有真实性、价值性和持久性的营销。稳定的供销关系,对于企业保证产品和服务质量、降低原材料采购和市场拓展成本、降低市场风险具有重要意义,是互惠互利、休戚与共的关系。而基于公平合作同业者关系,可以使企业与同业者分享技能、信息、技术和市场机会,分担成本。     

Approximate tâtonnement processes

Summary We introduce a probabilistic model for price adjustment in an exchange economy which approximates the classical Walras tâtonnement process while avoiding many of its unrealistic features. The model is decentralized in that the trades permitted to an agent and the resulting price changes depend only on the commodity vector currently held by that agent, and not on the commodity vectors held by the other agents in the economy. Our results will show that the Walras tâtonnement process can be decentralized without changing its behavior on the macroeconomic scale. Our model has a finite set of commodities, a market maker who adjusts prices, and a large finite set of agents who trade only with the market maker. Each agent has a demand function depending on his commodity vector and the price vector. At each discrete time, one agent is chosen at random and exchanges his current commodity vector for his demand vector. Then the market maker adjusts the price vector by an amount which depends on the selected agent's commodity vector and the current price. Prices are adjusted rapidly enough to avoid prolonged trading at the wrong price, but slowly enough so that a substantial price change will depend on a significant simple of agents. The main result shows that with probability arbitrarily close to one the price will rapidly approach and then remain close to an equilibrium value, following a path which is close to the price path of the corresponding tâtonnement process.     

The Helios strategy: An heretical view of the potential role of solar energy in the future of a small planet

Over the next hundred years there must be a worldwide transition from reliance on fossil fuels to the use of some combination of long-term and abundant primary sources for the production of heat, electricity, and synthetic fuels. The rate at which such options can be developed and employed, as well as the maximum rate at which they can provide energy at a sustained rate, will place important constraints on the rate and limits to growth of other human activities. It is generally argued that only the fission option, in the form of the fast-breeder and high-temperature reactors, can provide the energy required for a livable world, particularly if this means a world of 10 billion people living at the present energy level of Western Europe. However, a careful examination indicates that the use of solar energy, through a menu of technological options, can provide the needs of a world at this scale of energy use, and that this can be accomplished within the constraints of land availability and requirements for energy, materials, and labor. No scientific breakthroughs are required, although a number of these would be helpful, but very substantial engineering advances are required, and the transition of such a world-wide system would take no less than a century. However, the feasibility of such large-scale use of solar energy will substantially alter those aspects of the “limits to growth” discussions in which future growth strategies are constrained by available and acceptable energy alternatives. This paper outlines a global solar-energy system considered feasible for more than 10 billion people living at 5 kW per capita.     

基于可持续发展观的企业财务政策选择研究

企业的财务政策是企业根据其目标和理财环境以及本身的财务实力制定的财务方针和策略，它大量涉及企业理财的谋略和企业的商业秘密，所以必须根据企业内外客观情况的变化，对政策不断加以修改补充，甚至更新替代。然而，这种更新与替代却是很难的，一方面旧的财务政策由于其内部韧性作用而得以维持；另一方面，人们由于心理中的惰性因素而倾向于维护自己已经熟悉的政策。本文探讨如何把可持续发展观引入企业财务政策的选择过程，以解决以上的矛盾。     

替代能源“全攻略”——核电篇

6月8日至9日,《中国电力企业管理》杂志社与上海决策者经济顾问有限公司共同在京主办了“第二届替代能源与电力国际峰会”。替代能源包括水能、核能和风能、太阳能、生物质能等非水电可再生能源。目前,替代能源特别是非水电可再生能源在我国电源结构中的比例很小,而落实党中央制定的能源发展战略,节约化石能源、降低单位能耗水平、推进建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会,必须大力发展替代能源,以确保能源产业特别是电力工业的可持续发展。为了促进替代能源的宣传和推广,本刊将对本次峰会上演讲嘉宾的发言,分专题作系列报道。     

设计之上龙凤翱翔

说到龙凤，人们很容易想到古时宫廷中的物件，大到建筑，小到器皿、服装、首饰……龙凤图形随处可见。当龙凤从宫廷走向民间，人们对这个象征权贵吉祥的图形，更是钟爱有加。即使时间的河流已至21世纪的现代，尽管人们的审美观已发生巨大改变，但龙凤这个古老而独特的东方文化符号，依然为大多数人所追崇、喜爱，足见中国人对龙凤图形的情有独钟。