Changing composition of human capital The Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland1

We show that business education/occupations have expanded and that technical education/occupations have contracted in the Czech Republic and Poland since 1990. We interpret these changes as an adjustment necessary for their transition to a market economy. We do not find the same pattern in Hungary, which we attribute to the earlier timing of its transition. We construct an aggregate model in which labour reallocates in response to changing demand structure. When calibrated with the Czech and Polish data, the model generates a large movement of workers with technical education and experience into business occupations in the early 1990s. The discounted sum of output loss due to the gap between the demand structure and the composition of existing human capital amounts to between 8 and 40 percent of 1990 GDP.     

The Returns to Academic and Vocational Qualifications in Britain

This paper uses data from the 1991 sweep of the National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 1998 Labour Force Survey (LFS) to provide a comprehensive analysis of the labour market returns to academic and vocational qualifications. The results show that the wage premia from academic qualifications are typically higher than from vocational qualifications. However, this gap is reduced somewhat, when we control for the amount of time taken to acquire different qualifications. This is particularly important for vocational courses, which generally take shorter time periods to complete. In the paper we also investigate how returns vary by gender, subsequent qualifications, and the natural ability of individuals. Finally, by comparing the NCDS results with those from the LFS, we estimate the bias that can result from not controlling for factors such as ability, family background and measurement error. The results reveal that the estimated returns in the NCDS equations controlling for ability, family background and measurement error are similar to the simple OLS estimates obtained with the LFS, which do not control for these factors. This suggests that the biases generally offset one another.     

The Role of Repetition and Observability in Deterring Insurance Fraud

In this paper, I analyze an inspection game between an insurer and an infinite sequence of policyholders, who can try to misrepresent relevant information in order to obtain coverage or lower insurance premium. Because claim-auditing is costly for the insurer, ex-post moral hazard problem arises. I find that the repeated game effect serves as a commitment device, allowing the insurer to deter fraud completely (for sufficiently high discount rate) but only when the policyholders observe past auditing strategies. Under weaker observability conditions, only partial efficiency gains are generally possible. I conclude that the insurers should spend resources on signaling their anti-fraud attempts to the potential policyholders. Similar conclusions can be drawn with respect to conceptually similar problems, such as tax evasion.     

‘Give me a chance!’ An experiment in social decision under risk

This paper reports the results of a ‘probabilistic dictator game’ experiment in which subjects were given an option to share chances to win a prize with a dummy player. Using a within-subject design we manipulated two aspects of the decision, the relative cost of sharing and the nature of the lottery: the draws were either independent for the two players (‘noncompetitive’ condition) or one’s success meant other’s failure (‘competitive’ condition). We also asked for decisions in a standard, non-probabilistic, setting. The main results can be summarized as follows: first, a substantial fraction of subjects do share chances to win, also in the competitive treatments, thus showing concern for the other player that cannot be explained by outcome-based models. Second, subjects share less in the competitive treatment than in other treatments, indicating that procedural fairness alone cannot explain the data. Overall, these results suggest that models aiming at generalizing social concerns to risky environments will have to rely on a mix of distributive and procedural fairness.     

Mountaineering in Cuba: improvement of true accessibility as an opportunity for regional development of communities outside the tourism enclaves

Mass tourism began in the Caribbean during the middle of the twentieth century. Unfortunately, increasing competition and a change in the motivation of tourists now force the authorities who manage these regions to introduce a new tourism offer that is not based directly on either the 3S (Sun, Sand, and Sea) or 3E (Entertainment, Excitement, Education) model. Hiking, trekking, and climbing, defined as mountaineering, might be one of these. This paper examines the potential for mountaineering in Cuba by verifying its accessibility for tourists. The assessment is based on a framework of true accessibility, which consists of two factors: (1) destination accessibility and (2) real access. Our results show that mountaineering in Cuba should be considered to be one of the key contributors to the development, prosperity, and well-being of all stakeholders, and especially for the communities outside the tourism enclaves.     

The people behind the scenes: Episodic volunteering at fundraising events

Nonprofit organizations (NPOs) have become increasingly dependent on episodic volunteers (EVs), those that would help carry out an event with little training and expectation to commit to future events. Despite its importance to the survival of NPOs, the use of EVs with respect to fundraising has received little research focus. Furthermore, none of the existing studies identified examined how fundraising EVs differ from other EVs. This study seeks to contribute to our understanding of fundraising EVs using a global perspective. Data were generated using surveys distributed in seven countries, tallying more than 4,000 respondents. Variables included demographic characteristics, previous donation and volunteer history, motives, mode of volunteering, and overall experience. The data were analyzed by applying between-group (logistic regression on participation) and within-group analysis (ordered logistic regression on willingness to participate in the future). Data were further analyzed by examining differences by country. We found that country, gender, religion, income, employment, history of donations, mode of volunteering, and several motives, both intrinsic and extrinsic, were significant in the logistic regression analysis of participation in fundraising episodic volunteering. The ordered logistic analysis unexpectedly found that the only predictors to foster a willingness to engage again were the responsiveness of the event team and a desire to fulfill spiritual satisfaction. In recruiting and selecting EVs for fundraising events, NPOs should consider previous or current donors and those with regular volunteering experience and they should market volunteer opportunities towards those in search of spiritual fulfillment and meaning. Moreover, NPOs should prioritize quick and clear communication with fundraising EVs in order to foster a willingness to volunteer again. Lastly, NPOs should regularly assess for country-specific factors and contexts that may affect episodic volunteering in fundraising events. Our paper illustrates who fundraising EVs are, their motives, how they choose to volunteer, and what contributes to their willingness to volunteer again. Given the limited research on fundraising EVs, this study serves to help lay the foundation of research for this unique subgroup. Our aim was to not only address the dearth of literature but serve as a springboard for future research on fundraising EVs.     

File sharing as conditional cooperation: evidence from a framed field experiment

In this project, we investigate downloading and sharing behaviour in a novel ‘piracy game’ modelled after standard public good games. We find that willingness to share correlates positively with the sharing by others. By contrast, actual behaviour in the ‘piracy game’ is not correlated with self-reported behaviour.     

Real exchange rates: are they dominated by fundamental factors?

Using Bayesian model averaging, we determine which fundamental pair-wise differences suggested by the literature on optimum currency areas give the best explanation of medium-term variability of bilateral real exchange rates. The intercept in the best specification is statistically insignificant, implying that for a hypothetical pair of economies for which the differences were zero, the bilateral real exchange rate would not move. Thus, the ‘non-fundamental’ element of the medium-term real exchange rate variability is, in our sample at least, negligible on average. In other words, floating exchange rate does not in itself imply, on average, more real exchange rate variability in the medium term than an exchange rate peg.     

On the Sources of Inflation in Kenya: A Model‐Based Approach

We develop a semi‐structural new‐Keynesian open‐economy model – with separate food and non‐food inflation dynamics to study the sources of inflation in Kenya in recent years. To do so, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) through the model to recover a model‐based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps) – including for the international and domestic relative price of food. We use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. We also discuss the implications of this exercise for the use of model‐based monetary policy analysis in sub‐Saharan African countries.