Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development

This paper builds on Part I, where three European and Mediterranean scenarios were introduced. Theses scenarios can be typified as qualitative, integrated narrative storylines that describe three possible directions of future change until 2030. The main purpose of the paper is to summarise the methods and results of a series of stakeholder workshops held in the Guadalentín (Spain) and the Val d'Agri (Italy) to develop local scenarios, using the Mediterranean scenarios as boundary conditions. Two workshops were organised in both watersheds, employing different methods to develop short-term and long-term future outlooks. During the first workshop an exploratory forecasting methodology was employed. By means of a collage of images, stakeholders constructed three future images linked to three Mediterranean scenarios. In the second workshop, a discussion on the short-term outlook based on current trends was followed by a backcasting exercise. The various methods yielded highly complementary results, with detailed short-term developments, rather general yet highly creative visions of the long-term future, and a set of desirable futures. It is argued that such a mix of methods has increased the quality and comprehensiveness of the results. In any case, these efforts should be but the onset of long-term stakeholder participation.     

Motives behind equity holding by banks: Evidence from India

This paper examines the motives behind equity holding by banks in non-financial firms. It has been argued that banks hold equity in firms primarily for two reasons: to support their debt holding or for returns as capital investments. This paper tries to examine which among these two motives drive equity holdings by Development Financial Institutions in India (DFIs). Results indicate that equity holding by DFIs in India is primarily driven by their interest as creditors. In poorly performing firms, equity holding by DFIs is also driven by debt restructuring in firms in the form of conversion of debt to equity. The author would like to thank Subrata Sarkar, Vikas Rawal and an anonymous referee of the journal for their comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Bank credit,public financial incentives,tax financial incentives and export performance during the global financial crisis

This paper investigates the extent to which access to credit, public financial incentives and tax financial incentives affect export performance using the EU-EFIGE/Bruegel-Unicredit data set, covering firms within Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary and the UK during the 2008 global financial crisis. The results show that firms receiving credit or benefiting from public financial incentives display higher export intensity and export a greater number of product lines compared to those that did not, especially in countries with better access to credit and/or financial incentives during the crisis. Further, firms benefiting from tax financial incentives show a better export performance compared to those that did not, regardless of the degree of access to credit and/or financial incentives in the country in which they operate. In addition, the effect of access to credit and public finance incentives on export performance is found to be size-dependent, while the effect of tax financial incentives is not. We suggest that governments should promote publicly funded financial incentives along with conventional schemes, such as R&D subsidies, to promote exports, particularly during a period of financial crisis.     

Market dynamics and dichotomy: evidence from Taiwanese manufacturing

In Taiwan, a dichotomous market structure is closely related to the progress of economic development. The purpose of the present article is to examine the market dynamics and dichotomous nature of Taiwanese manufacturing. A model of dynamic adjustment of industry structure is considered when both the speed of adjustment and the long-run market concentration are allowed to vary across industries. We use 118 four-digit manufacturing industries for empirical analysis of our models spanning between 1981 and 1991. Empirical findings show that both the speed of adjustment and long-run industry concentration are predominantly determined by minimum efficient scale. The speed of adjustment is much faster in a small open economy like Taiwan compared to mature economies like the US and Australia. In addition, the dichotomous nature of the market is supported in our findings for both periods, viz, 1981–1986 and 1986–1991, albeit weaker for the later period.     

Adjustment of Profits: Evidence from Australian Manufacturing

Studies of industry profitability generally deal with long-run equilibrium models, making no allowance for slow adjustment to equilibrium. In this study, a cross-sectional analysis is carried out against a sample of Australian manufacturing industries at the Australian Standard Industrial Classification (ASIC) four-digit level between 1977–78 and 1984–85. Firstly, a profit model is estimated in equilibrium form as well as allowing for both uniform and variable adjustment rates across industries. The variable adjustment model is superior, with either model implying at least half adjustment to equilibrium within the seven-year sample period. Secondly, results are examined for the impact of firm homogeneity of firms within industries. Homogeneity of firms is found to have substantial impact,increasing both the estimated profits-concentration relationship and the estimated speed of adjustment.     

Specification and Testing the Profit-Concentration Relationship in Australian Manufacturing

Research in the mainstream of industrial organization has tested the relationship between profit rates (an index of performance) and concentration (an index of structure) including other variables (e.g., capital intensity, advertising intensity, growth, measures for barriers to entry, import and export intensity). Specification of this relationship is often largely ad hoc and its testing is subject to a number of statistical criticisms. Major criticisms that require attention are: i) omission of the relevant explanatory variables, ii) simultaneous causality among variables, and iii) measurement error in the variables. This paper derives a profit-concentration relationship from a well known oligopoly model. Empirical analysis is carried out against a sample of Australian manufacturing industries for 1984–85. The resulting estimates suggest the importance of dealing with each of the specification and testing issues in explaining the profit-concentration relationship.     

Determinants of Innovation

The study examines how firm size, market structure, profitability and growth influence innovative activity in small to medium sized Australian manufacturing businesses, using the recently released Confidentialised Unit Record File drawn from the Business Longitudinal Survey of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Regression analysis is conducted to determine the factors that effect subsequent innovative activity for the full sample of businesses, as well as for sub-samples of firms from high and low-technological opportunity industries. Most variables, including size, R&D intensity, market structure and trade shares are found to be conducive to further innovative activity for the full sample and for high-tech firms. For low-tech industries, fewer variables are significant.     

INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE AND COMPETITION: THE CASE OF JAPANESE MANUFACTURING

Abstract.  The paper analyses the competitive process and performance behaviour of Japanese manufacturing between 1985 and 1997. Technological changes, international competition and reducing barriers in domestic and international markets are playing a significant role to speed up the performance behaviour in Japanese manufacturing. Scale economies, product differentiation and openness of the economy are used in explaining profit behaviour of manufacturing firms. Findings are compared with existing studies from Japan as well as from other developed countries such as Australia and the USA.     

The practical know-how of selling: Differences in knowledge content between more-effective and less-effective performers

Results of both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of salespeople indicate that more effective and less effective salespeople differ systematically in their knowledge of sales strategies, and to a lesser extent in their knowledge of customer characteristics. For the sales situation examined, more effective salespeople use specific, problem solving-oriented strategies to sell to customers and underlying, functional characteristics to describe customers; less effective salespeople use global, relationship-oriented strategies to sell to customers and surface structure, less functional characteristics to describe customers.The research was supported in part by a grant from the Division of Research, College of Business Administration, The Pennsylvania State University.