An Analysis of Covariance Risk and Pricing Anomalies

This article examines the link between several well-known assetpricing "anomalies" and the covariance structure of returns.I find size, book-to-market, and momentum strategies exhibita strong, weak, and negligible relation to covariance risk,respectively. A size factor helps predict future volatilityand covariation, improving the efficiency of investment strategies.Moreover, its premium rises following increases in both itsvolatility and covariation with other assets. These effectsare amplified in recessions. No such relations exist for book-to-marketor momentum. These findings may shed light on explanations forthese premia and present a challenging set of facts for futuretheory.     

The algebra of health concerns: implications of consumer perception of health loss,illness and the breakdown of the health system on anxiety

The current and expected future state of the American health care system creates much concern and anxiety at the national and individual level among Americans. This study is in response to the call of the Institute of Medicine to further study the lack of confidence among Americans about their future ability to receive high‐quality health care. This study compares perceived anxiety and its amelioration as a result of three possible health situations: illness with infectious disease, losing one's health and a breakdown of the health care system. This empirical study was conducted within the framework of conjoint analysis. We conducted an experimental design of ideas, identified attributes that increased or reduced anxiety in each of the three health‐related situations and then segmented consumers on the basis of their patterns of reactions to the attributes. We found that the highest anxiety was attributed to the breakdown of the health care system. The segmentation further suggested that the anxiety emerging from the breakdown of society's health care system generated a different extent of anxiety than that which emerged from one's illness or one's loss of own health. The attributes that drove anxiety across the health situations were, surprisingly, charities, one's company, the local hospital and supplemental insurance. Attributes that reduced anxiety differed among segments. The attributes were found to be: close friends, family, distribution of information by authorities and the belief in God. At a practical level, these data and patterns of response allow health care policy makers to enhance the coping ability of patients by understanding the nature of what reduces the anxiety of individual types of patients. The approach in this study provides a person‐centred system for communication and anxiety reduction that can be implemented as part of a public health policy.     

Financial products: Rapid,iterative and segmented development by conjoint measurement and self-authoring iterative procedures

This paper combines existing and novel approaches to the development of financial products (here specifically insurance). Conjoint measurement identifies the key features of new insurance offerings through a procedure that does not require the customer to articulate needs, but rather simply respond to stimuli. Beyond conjoint measurement, however, lies segmentation, which when applied to the data set reveals the existence of new, and perhaps hitherto unexpected segments in the population. Conjoint measurement therefore further identifies the specific messages appealing to each segment. A ‘self-authoring’ (do-it-yourself) approach developed by the authors enables the developer to run several iterations of conjoint measurement rapidly, cost-effectively and with low risk. Rapid, safe, easy iterations increase the power of the approach because it is through these rapid iterations that additional learning and fine-tuning occur, and by means of which a better product emerges.     

Time series momentum

We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities of speculators and hedgers, we find that speculators profit from time series momentum at the expense of hedgers.     

Carry

We apply the concept of carry, which has been studied almost exclusively in currency markets, to any asset. A security’s expected return is decomposed into its “carry,” an ex-ante and model-free characteristic, and its expected price appreciation. Carry predicts returns cross-sectionally and in time series for a host of different asset classes, including global equities, global bonds, commodities, US Treasuries, credit, and options. Carry is not explained by known predictors of returns from these asset classes, and it captures many of these predictors, providing a unifying framework for return predictability. We reject a generalized version of Uncovered Interest Parity and the Expectations Hypothesis in favor of models with varying risk premia, in which carry strategies are commonly exposed to global recession, liquidity, and volatility risks, though none fully explains carry’s premium.     

The role of shorting,firm size,and time on market anomalies

We examine the role of shorting, firm size, and time on the profitability of size, value, and momentum strategies. We find that long positions make up almost all of size, 60% of value, and half of momentum profits. Shorting becomes less important for momentum and more important for value as firm size decreases. The value premium decreases with firm size and is weak among the largest stocks. Momentum profits, however, exhibit no reliable relation with size. These effects are robust over 86 years of US equity data and almost 40 years of data across four international equity markets and five asset classes. Variation over time and across markets of these effects is consistent with random chance. We find little evidence that size, value, and momentum returns are significantly affected by changes in trading costs or institutional and hedge fund ownership over time.     

Detecting Buyer Preferences to Guide Product Development and Advertising

If you could tell which product characteristics consumers would prefer, product development could be targeted sharply and positioning the product competitively could be done with more confidence. This article describes one approach by which a relatively large set of test products is evaluated by consumers in order to identify the most acceptable combination of product attributes. Identification of this combination provides the product developer with guidelines as to which test product should be selected for subsequent introduction. The focus is on the discovery of discernible attributes of a product in a fragmented category to support the advertising claim.     

The Trading of Purchase Interest for Concept Believability

The increasing riskiness and cost associated with product development are major blocks to the successful marketing of new products. This study discusses the application of magnitude estimation scaling and benefit modelling to the measurement of consumer reactions for a wide array of systematically varied product concepts. The trade-off between different consumer reactions (e.g., purchase interest vs believability) is considered in the light of optimal combinations of benefits for directing concept and strategy development. Implications for product development and the identification of alternative advertising copies are additional benefits which emerge from the modelling process.     

Do Industries Explain Momentum?

This paper documents a strong and prevalent momentum effect in industry components of stock returns which accounts for much of the individual stock momentum anomaly. Specifically, momentum investment strategies, which buy past winning stocks and sell past losing stocks, are significantly less profitable once we control for industry momentum. By contrast, industry momentum investment strategies, which buy stocks from past winning industries and sell stocks from past losing industries, appear highly profitable, even after controlling for size, book-to-market equity, individual stock momentum, the cross-sectional dispersion in mean returns, and potential microstructure influences.