CREDIBILITY, MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND MARKOV REGIME SWITCHES IN THE EMS

The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries.     

On Measuring the Value of a Nonmarket Good Using Market Data

We use line integral theory to lay out in a more general theoretical framework the conditions under which it is possible to measure with market data the welfare effects of a change in a nonmarket good. We present in detail a numerical method of measuring the value of nonmarket goods using market data, under either weak neutrality or weak complementarity. Our numerical method is more flexible than the existing analytical method because it can be used with any well-behaved Marshallian demand function, and can be used even when the willig condition does not hold.     

Call centres and beyond: a thematic evaluation

This introduction aims to place the articles in this special edition in the context of the wider literature on call centres. The discussion is arranged around four themes: the characteristics and organisational features of call centre work, the choices and strategies that are available to manage the work, the effects of this type of work on employees and, finally, the responses and reactions of call centre staff to their work experiences. The articles selected, which are drawn from a conference sponsored by this journal, are then summarised.     

Effects of adjustment of the green drachma to its current exchange rate

Between 1981 and 1988, the drachma has devalued by 62.5% against the ECU. Until mid-1985 any devaluation of the drachma was followed by a corresponding devaluation of the ‘green drachma‘. After that period, the green rate either remained unchanged or changed by a substantially smaller percentage, resulting in farmers' income loss and consumers' gain. The aim of this paper is to investigate the welfare effects on production/producer, consumption/consumer and budgetary flows from and to FEOGA assuming that an adjustment of the green drachma to its current exchange rate was realized. For this purpose partial analysis methodology is employed. The main findings are that, following a simultaneous adjustment of both rates, the gains to producers and in exchange flows more than make up for the corresponding consumers' losses for all products except beef.     

The Nested PIGLOG Model: An Application to U.S. Food Demand

A new demand system is introduced, the Nested PIGLOG model, nesting thirteen other demand systems including five that are also new. This new model and its nested special cases are applied to models of U.S. food demand that include food-at-home (FAH), food-away-from-home (FAFH), and alcoholic beverages. Although nested tests and out-of-sample forecasting performance favor generalizing models to a certain degree, statistically insignificant improvements to in-sample-fit and even poorer out-of-sample forecast accuracy undermine further generalizations. Based on a subset of preferred models, FAFH is found to be price and income elastic compared to FAH which is price and income inelastic.     

Poverty in Palanpur

The meaning and identification of poverty are examined usingthree indicators of standard of living in the North Indian villageof Palanpur. The first is intended as a measure of "apparentprosperity" based on the personal assessments of investigatorsafter intensive field work in the village over the full agriculturalyear 1983–84. The other two are income in 1983–84,and a measure of permanent income obtained by averaging incomesfrom four surveys conducted over a twenty-six-year interval.A comparison of these three indicators shows that income measuredin any one year may give a misleading impression of the incidenceof poverty. The risk of poverty for households is calculated.Vulnerability is high among low-caste households and those whichare involved in agricultural labor. Categories, however, arenot homogeneous; for example, whereas the landless and widowsare more likely to be poor, some of such households are quitewell off. It is argued that poverty in a good agricultural yearis a better indicator of sustained poverty than poverty in abad year. Occupational mobility out of agricultural labor islow, and changes in the distribution of land are largely accountedfor by demographic processes such as household splits.     

New market creation through transformation

Is new market creation a search and selectionprocess within the theoretical space of all possible markets? Or is it the outcome of a process of transformation of extant realities into new possibilities? In this article we consider new market creation as a process involving a new network of stakeholders. The network is initiated through an effectual commitment that sets in motion two concurrent cycles of expanding resources and convergingconstraints that result in the new market. The dynamic model was induced from two empirical investigations, a cognitive science-based investigation of entrepreneurial expertise, and a real time history of the RFID industry. JEL Classification: M13, M31, D4, D52, D71, D72, L1, L2, P42 We would like to thank the Batten Institute at the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia, for supporting this research. We would also like to thank the following on specific contributions to our thesis: Anil Menon for his relentless insistence on more precise formulations of effectual reasoning; Jim March for his conversation and for inspiring us to dig into Type I and Type II errors; Rob Wiltbank for firming up the section on opportunity costs; and Stuart Read for helping us clarify our writing. Correspondence to: S.D. Sarasvathy     

Does seeing more deeply into a game increase one’s chances of winning?

The substantively rational value of the games studied in this paper does not help predict subject performance in the experiment at all. An accurate model must account for the cognitive ability of the people playing the game. This paper investigates whether the variation in measured rationality bounds is correlated with the probability of winning when playing against another person in games that exceed both players’ estimated rationality bound. Does seeing deeper into a game matter when neither player can see to the end of the game? Subjects with higher measured bounds win 63 percent of the time and the larger the difference the more frequently they win.