Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests

In this study, we aim to analyse whether Turkey's 14 major tourist source markets are converging by using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2012. To this aim, we use the recently developed two-step Lagrange multiplier (LM) and three-step residual augmented least squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks in data. The results indicate that 10 out of 14 markets are converging, meaning that tourism policies and strategies directed at these markets are successful. Furthermore, the break points correspond to the important political, social, natural and economic events such as crisis, earthquake, disease and terrorist attack.     

Outsourcing distribution and logistics services within the automotive supplier industry

This paper reports on an empirical study that examined a suite of distribution and logistics services commonly used to manage inbound materials en route to plants. The sourcing decision is examined through the lenses of transaction cost economics and the resource-based view of the firm and the results lend limited support for both theories in the context of such services. Results further indicate that there is little evidence supporting differences between internal versus external decision-makers.     

Limited information-processing capacity and asymmetric stock correlations

Through an orthogonalized impulse-response analysis, I studied the relationship between the variance risk premium, market variance and stock correlations in the French stock market from September 2002 through September 2006, using high-frequency data-based measures. Variance risk premium is estimated using realized variances and index options-implied variances and used as a state vector to proxy investors perceived uncertainty. I found that a shock to variance risk premium causes long-lasting increases in the market variance pointing to the limitedness of investors information-processing capacity. At the same time, the shock generates consecutive increases in realized correlations between individual stocks and the market portfolio. I propose this as a possible explanation for the asymmetric/counter-cyclic behaviour of stock correlations.     

Service innovation in the hotel industry: culture,behavior, performance

The aim of this study is to focus on the service innovation culture (SIC) in the formation of frontline employees’ (FLE) innovation performance based on two fit theories. More specifically, the research evaluates and examines the mediating role of challenge-oriented citizenship behavior (COCB) and charged behavior in the aforementioned relationship. To test the hypotheses, two-step structural equation modeling with bootstrapping estimation was conducted in AMOS, using data from 215 full-time frontline hotel employees over a one-month time period. This study establishes that the development of a SIC is positively related to the innovation performance of FLE. Likewise, the results indicate that there is a partially mediating role for the COCB and expanded charged behavior (encompassing vitality and creative self-efficacy) of FLE in the relationship between SIC and innovation performance. The findings of this study highlight the need for managers to incorporate a secure and trusting work environment so FLE will eagerly participate in the service innovation process by voicing their novel ideas. Managers can also consider the significance of the employee selection procedures and take advantage of employing university graduate for frontline service jobs.     

Customer choices of manufacturer versus retailer brands in alternative price and usage contexts

This article offers a context-dependent theory of how price changes influence consumer purchase choice for fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) for manufacturer (large household share) and retailer (small household share) brands. The theory proposes that the influence of price on demand is systematically very sensitive to context effects; more specifically, the theory includes the hypothesis that elasticity is much greater when the price change results in the manufacturer and retailer brands having the same price compared to when the price change keeps the manufacturer brand price above the retailer brand price. The implicit and/or explicit association with higher quality with the manufacturer versus retailer brand may be the main reason for buying the higher priced manufacturer brand. Decreasing the price of the manufacturer brand to equal the retailer brand's price takes away the primary reason for buying the retailer brand (i.e., saving money); increasing the price of the retailer brand to equal the manufacturer brand's price has the same effect. The empirical findings in the studies that this article reports support the hypothesis and confirm Scriven and Ehrenberg's [2004. Consistent consumer responses to price changes. Australas. Mark. J. 12(3), 21–39] major conclusion that relative order of price is more important than relative distance.     

Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey

This study investigates the effects on private saving rates of a number of policy and non-policy variables. The analysis covers the period 1968–1994. The empirical private saving model for Turkey is estimated. The findings support the hypothesis that private saving rates have strong inertia. The evidence indicates that government saving does not tend to crowd out private savings and the Ricardian equivalence does not hold strictly. Income level has a positive impact on private saving rate, and growth rate of income is not statistically significant. From a policy point of view, financial depth and development measures in Turkey suggest that countries with deeper financial systems tend to have higher private saving rates. Private credit and real interest rates try to capture the severity of the borrowing constraints and the degree of financial repression for Turkey. Moreover, the negative impact of life expectancy rate lends support to the life-cycle hypothesis. The precautionary motive for saving is supported by the findings that inflation captures the degree of macroeconomic volatility and has a positive impact on private saving in Turkey.     

Evidence for Financial Contagion in Endogenous Volatile Periods

The objective of this study is to analyze cross‐border contagious dynamics in both foreign exchange markets and stock exchange markets. Propagation is analyzed with respect to the transmission of excessive volatility that is endogenously determined. The contagion process is discussed in the context of financial systems, foreign direct investments and trade. Implementing a vector autoregressive‐multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (VAR‐MGARCH) model, we show that country‐specific turbulence in financial markets is able to create unanticipated financial contagion across countries. Diversified trade and financial relations decrease the risk of exposure to contagion from external markets. The world's largest economies, however, play a price‐setter role, and diversification is of secondary importance. Asymmetric transmission of the empirically predicted contagion prevails in the latter case.     

A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas–unitas–integritas–consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.     

International mergers and acquisitions: A jump diffusion model application

This paper empirically investigates international mergers and acquisitions (M&As) of foreign targets and bidders by analyzing the stock price behavior of the firms involved. The jump diffusion model is employed to study the effects of the M&A announcements on stock prices. The results indicate that acquisition announcements are perceived as a surprise by the market, but prices seem to adjust rather rapidly, supporting the semi-strong form of the market efficiency hypothesis. In addition, a comparison of the pure diffusion and jump diffusion models indicates that the jump diffusion model is statistically superior to the traditional event study methodology (pure diffusion model). (JEL G34)