Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory

We examine the dynamics of extreme values of overnight borrowing rates in an inter-bank money market before a financial crisis during which overnight borrowing rates rocketed up to (simple annual) 4000 percent. It is shown that the generalized Pareto distribution fits well to the extreme values of the interest rate distribution. We also provide predictions of extreme overnight borrowing rates using pre-crisis data. The examination of tails (extreme values) provides answers to such issues as to what are the extreme movements to be expected in financial markets; is there a possibility for even larger movements and, are there theoretical processes that can model the type of fat-tails in the observed data? The answers to such questions are essential for proper management of financial exposures and laying ground for regulations.     

Multi-scale tests for serial correlation

This paper introduces a new family of portmanteau tests for serial correlation. Using the wavelet transform, we decompose the variance of the underlying process into the variance of its low frequency and of its high frequency components and we design a variance ratio test of no serial correlation in the presence of dependence. Such decomposition can be carried out iteratively, each wavelet filter leading to a rich family of tests whose joint limiting null distribution is a multivariate normal. We illustrate the size and power properties of the proposed tests through Monte Carlo simulations.     

The predictability of security returns with simple technical trading rules

Technical traders base their analysis on the premise that the patterns in market prices are assumed to recur in the future, and thus, these patterns can be used for predictive purposes. This paper uses the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from 1897 to 1988 to examine the linear and nonlinear predictability of stock market returns with simple technical trading rules. The nonlinear specification of returns are modelled by single layer feedforward networks. The results indicate strong evidence of nonlinear predictability in the stock market returns by using the past buy and sell signals of the moving average rules.     

Housing prices and transaction volume

We use annual, quarterly and monthly data from the US to show that the correlation between housing prices and transaction volume (number of existing houses sold) differs across different frequencies. While the correlation is high at the low frequencies it declines to the levels close to zero at high frequencies. Granger causality tests for different frequencies show that the way of causality in housing market changes from region to region. Our findings provide a litmus test for the existing theories that are proposed to explain the positive correlation between transaction volume and housing prices.     

WAGE INEQUALITY IN TURKEY: DECOMPOSITION BY STATISTICAL REGIONS, 1980–2001

This paper analyzes wage inequality in the Turkish manufacturing sector annually from 1980 to 2001, and also provides some evidence for inequality in the post‐2001 period. Using the between‐groups component of Theil's T statistic, the paper provides more information on wage inequality. It decomposes the evolution of inequality by statistical regions – The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics – (i.e. NUTS‐1 and NUTS‐2). The decompositions show that inequality has increased since the late 1980s in the private sector both between regions of NUTS‐1 and NUTS‐2.     

Do Muslims Believe More in Protestant Work Ethic than Christians? Comparison of People with Different Religious Background Living in the US

This study examines the work ethic characteristics of Protestant, Catholic, and Muslim people who are living in the US. People originally from Turkey were targeted under the Muslim group. Since a significant number of people selected “none” as their religious affiliation in the survey, this group has also been included in the final analysis. Eight hundred and three people (313 Protestants, 180 “none”, 96 Muslims, 86 Catholics, and 128 other) participated in this questionnaire study. The analyses revealed that Muslim Turks reported greater scores on four of the five Protestant work ethic (PWE) characteristics. Protestants scored higher than Catholics on all characteristics, but there was no significant difference.     

Social media adoption: A process-based approach

This research conceptualizes and measures social media adoption (SMA) of companies with a process-based approach and explains its antecedents of micro- and macro-environment, size, and ownership, as well as its consequence of intention to increase resources dedicated to social media. Based on data from 310 Turkish small and medium enterprises, the study first develops a conceptual framework on the pillars of internal and external stakeholder focus as well as relationship and information oriented implementation. Based on these two dimensions, it discusses the novel concepts of social customer relations, social stakeholder communication, social intelligence, and social responsiveness related to SMA. The study further indicates that ownership type and micro environment play a role in SMA and that path dependence exists in the interplay of current adoption and future intentions.     

Fuzzy logic,trading uncertainty and technical trading

From the market microstructure perspective, technical analysis can be profitable when informed traders make systematic mistakes or when uninformed traders have predictable impacts on price. However, chartists face a considerable degree of trading uncertainty because technical indicators such as moving averages are essentially imperfect filters with a nonzero phase shift. Consequently, technical trading may result in erroneous trading recommendations and substantial losses. This paper presents an uncertainty reduction approach based on fuzzy logic that addresses two problems related to the uncertainty embedded in technical trading strategies: market timing and order size. The results of our high-frequency exercises show that ‘fuzzy technical indicators’ dominate standard moving average technical indicators and filter rules for the Euro-US dollar (EUR-USD) exchange rates, especially on high-volatility days.