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1.
We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition. 相似文献
2.
Gary Koop 《Journal of Empirical Finance》1994,1(3-4)
This paper uses Bayesian methods to analyze unit root and cointegration properties of two different finance data sets. Avoiding the use of subjective prior information, the paper surveys and utilizes several different objective Bayesian methodologies in an investigation of common stochastic trends in international stock markets and in spot and forward exchange rates for several different countries. 相似文献
3.
Rebecca Buckman 《投资与合作》2006,(2):142-143
Venture Capitalists even work closely with the retailer of Best Buy Co.. They try to understand consumer trends and sometimes even get the retailer's advice about investing in promising young companies. 相似文献
4.
Frank E. Kuzmits Rebecca A. Thacker Mark A. Osbourn 《Employee Responsibilities and Rights Journal》1991,4(3):203-214
In recent years, the responsibility of employers to hire people who are not dangerous or violent has been heightened by the tort, negligent hiring. The courts have ruled that certain employers owe a special duty to employees and third parties (e.g., customers or clients) to protect them from the harmful or criminal acts of other employees. This article contrasts negligent hiring to respondent superior and negligent entrustment, describes the components of negligent hiring, and reviews important legal cases. The article also discusses how employers can minimize the risk of negligent hiring through prudent human resource practices. 相似文献
5.
Rick J. Parent Tiffany Noël Hib Rebecca A. Silver Carrie Jenkins Margaret P. Poe R. Jacob Mullins 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2005,72(4):171-411
Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2. 相似文献
6.
The U.K. Government has embarked on a deregulatory programme aimed at ‘liberating’ business from, inter alia, onerous regulatory compliance costs. In doing so it has developed and utilized an accounting-based technique known as Compliance Cost Assessment (CCA). This paper describes and analyses this technique, and demonstrates that CCA has been used as a perceived rational tool to counter regulatory growth and to privilege certain interests in society. 相似文献
7.
Rebecca Pera 《旅游业当前问题》2017,20(4):331-338
The work proposes a theoretical and empirical model that investigates how storytelling is a powerful co-creative behaviour in tourism. The contribution takes a step forward from the classical theories on co-creation and develops the case where consumers act almost independently from traditional brands. The empirical study adopts an interpretive approach to analyse online travel reviews. Data are interpreted through Yi and Gong's model on consumer value co-creation behaviour [(2013). Customer value co-creation behavior: Scale development and validation. Journal of Business Research, 66, 127], the Phase dynamics theory of travel epiphany behaviour [Woodside, A. G., & Megehee, C. M. (2010). Advancing consumer behaviour theory in tourism via visual narrative art. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(5), 418–431], and the Archetype theory [Woodside, A. G., Sood, S., & Miller, K. E. (2008). When consumers and brands talk: Storytelling theory and research. Psychology & Marketing, 25(2), 97–145]. The study indicates that storytelling behaviours in value co-creation activate a ‘customer delight' response, which is an affect-based construct. 相似文献
8.
This is a review article that unifies several important examples using constrained optimisation techniques. The basic tools are three simple mathematical optimisation results subject to certain constraints. Applications include calibration, benchmarking in small area estimation and imputation. A final illustration is constrained optimisation under a general divergence loss. 相似文献
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