Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

The best way of bilateral special economic zone to Sino-Vietnam economic cooperation

The Bilateral Special Economic Zones is a new idea about economic co-operation ways. It is going to be set by both countries with a common boundary for promoting the economic co-operation between two sides. It can be firstly set along the boundary between China and Vietnam. It will promote the economic co-operation between them, but China and ASEAN. It can be set along the Chinese boundary with the neighboring countries and will promote the economic co-operation between the both sides for setting up a better environment around China.     

The Wealth Effect of Domestic Joint Ventures: Evidence from Taiwan

This study presents important international evidence by examining the wealth effect of domestic joint ventures by Taiwanese firms. In opposite to United States evidence, we find that announcements of domestic joint ventures by Taiwanese firms are, on average, associated with significantly negative abnormal stock returns. We also find that the stock market response to announced domestic joint ventures is significantly positively related to the announcing firms' investment opportunities, size of investment and debt ratio, and is significantly negatively related to the business relatedness variable. In contrast, free cash flow, firm size, relative firm size and managerial ownership are found to have no significant power in explaining the market response. Our results support the investment opportunities, synergy and complementarity hypotheses as well as a broad interpretation of the free cash flow hypothesis, but reject the absolute size, relative size and alignment-of-interests hypotheses. This study makes valuable contributions to the literature by providing the first direct evidence on the role of investment opportunities, synergy and alignment-of-interests in explaining the wealth effect of domestic joint ventures     

Price Commitment versus Flexibility: the Role of Exchange Rate Uncertainty and its Implications for Exchange Rate Passthrough

The paper investigates the incentives to commit price or retain price flexibility in a model in which exporting firms face different degrees of exchange rate uncertainty. The result shows that introducing exchange rate uncertainty can lead to the endogenous emergence of a unique leader–follower equilibrium; which firm emerges as price leader depends on the substitutability of products, the magnitude of exchange rate uncertainty, and the cost structure. This study may provide one explanation as to why some exporters set price before the realization of the nominal exchange rates (“sticky price”). The results imply exchange rate variability affects exchange rate passthrough.     

Taxation, growth, and the spirit of capitalism

This paper uses a general two-sector model of endogenous growth to examine how the spirit of capitalism affects the relation between public finance and growth. The spirit of capitalism is defined as acquisitive personal objectives. We find that if the spirit of capitalism is present, an increase in the share of government spending in output reduces the long-run growth rate. The negative relationship between fiscal spending and growth is consistent with empirical evidence.     

A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series

Popular monthly coincident indices of business cycles, e.g. the composite index and the Stock–Watson coincident index, have two shortcomings. First, they ignore information contained in quarterly indicators such as real GDP. Second, they lack economic interpretation; hence the heights of peaks and the depths of troughs depend on the choice of an index. This paper extends the Stock–Watson coincident index by applying maximum likelihood factor analysis to a mixed‐frequency series of quarterly real GDP and monthly coincident business cycle indicators. The resulting index is related to latent monthly real GDP. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate Change Policies and Tax Recycling Schemes: Simulations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Italian Economy

A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Italian economy is used to assess the impact of carbon taxation (or auctioned carbon permits), where additional revenue is used to cut either existing taxes on labor or on capital income. Simulation results do not support the existence of the so-called "double dividend" when labor taxes are reduced, whereas lower tax rates on capital have mild positive effects on growth and welfare, with progressivity properties on income distribution. These findings hinge on the assumptions of open economy, given world interest rate, and capital mobility.     

中国负债知多少？

【美国《华尔街日报》7月23日】中国的隐性债务可能成为一大麻烦。     

Welfare paradox in economic restructuring

It can be proved theoretically that, because of the previously existing price and structural distortion, a welfare paradox is possible in the former command economies during the transition period. This paradox refers to a situation in which a welfare gain is accompanied by a fall in the reported GNP figure.