Intermediate inputs,external rebalancing and relative price adjustment

The traditional multi-sector macro model without production inputs is a value-added trade model. This paper shows that calibrating such a misspecified value-added trade model to available gross-flow trade data – a common practice in the literature – can lead to mismeasured (i) preference weights and (ii) price elasticities. Further, the calibrated model can give substantially different predictions regarding the relative price response to external rebalancing, when compared to a preferred alternative model with inputs that is consistent with gross-flow trade data. We find that mismeasured preference weights and price elasticities both contribute sizably to deviations in model predictions and estimate correctly-measured parameters for the value-added trade model.     

The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources

Exporters of exhaustible resources have historically exhibited higher income volatility than other economies, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open-economy model to quantify the role of precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources, when the only source of uncertainty is the price of the exhaustible resource. The parameterized model fares moderately well at capturing current account balances in both cross-section and time-series data. The results show that the precautionary motive can generate sizable external sector savings, the more so the greater the weight of exhaustible resource revenues in future income.