A Stackelberg model of pricing of complementary goods under information asymmetry

We consider a duopoly market where two separate firms offer complementary goods in a leader–follower type move. Each firm has private forecast information about the uncertain market demand and decides whether to share it with the other firm. We show that information sharing would benefit the leader firm but hurt the follower firm as well as the total system if the follower firm shares information unconditionally. We then devise a “simple to implement” information sharing scheme under which both firms and the total system are better off. We also provide several interesting managerial insights and establish the robustness of the model in managing a supply chain through our analytical and simulation results.     

Role of forecast effort on supply chain profitability under various information sharing scenarios

In this paper, we consider a manufacturer who sells a product to a retailer in a single selling season. Each party obtains a forecast of the market demand independent of each other. We study three different forecast scenarios: Non-Information Sharing, Information Sharing, and Retailer Forecasting cases. In the first scenario, both parties make their forecasts, but do not share the information with the other firm. In the second scenario, they share the information with each other, while in the last scenario, only the retailer makes the forecast, and shares it with the manufacturer. Noting that the forecast accuracy comes at a cost, we derive the optimal price and forecast accuracy level for each of the three cases. We then compare the optimal policies of the three cases and derive conditions under which the two parties should share information with each other. Results of extensive numerical experimentation are also presented.     

The Effect of Interpersonal Trust,Need for Cognition,and Social Loneliness on Shopping,Information Seeking and Surfing on the Web

This study contends that certain personality traits of e-consumers have an affect on their shopping, surfing and information seeking behaviors on the Web. Specifically, it is proposed that e-consumers who are low on interpersonal trust are less likely to shop on the Web due to their heightened concerns with Web security. Similarly, an argument is made that e-consumers who enjoy cognitively demanding processing tasks are more likely to use the Web for information search. Finally, it is posited that social loners will be selectively drawn to Web surfing. Findings from an empirical study are presented which support these assertions. Implications of this study for marketers and future researchers are discussed.     

Analysis of non-stationary dynamics in the financial system

Novel data-driven analyses, appropriate for detecting economic instability in non-stationary time series, are developed using functional principal component analysis (fPCA) and Synchrosqueezing. fPCA is applied in a new way, aggregating multiple financial time series to identify periods of macroeconomic instability. Synchrosqueezing, a technique which generates a time-series’ time-dependent spectral decomposition, is modified to develop a new quantitative measure of local dynamical changes and structural breaks. The merit of this integrated technique is demonstrated by analyzing financial data from 1986 to 2012 that includes equity indices, securities and commodities, and foreign exchange. Both procedures successfully detect key historic periods of instability. Moreover, the results reveal distinctions between periods of long-term gradual change in addition to structural breaks. These tools offer new insights into the analysis of financial instability.     

Integrated data-driven analytics to identify instability signatures in nonstationary financial time series

With the objective of identifying instability signatures of the financial system, this article integrates two classes of data-driven techniques. The first class of techniques is utilized to investigate macroeconomic behaviour by aggregating an ensemble of heterogeneous nonstationary time-series data and the second class of techniques examines the local dynamics of the microstructures in each time series. Moving window principal component analysis (PCA) and functional PCA (fPCA) are shown to extract collective signatures of the financial system for understanding macroeconomic behaviour, and the Synchrosqueezing and Markov switching techniques are used to study local dynamics within each individual time series. The integrated data analytics successfully identifies the diverse events from 1986 to 2012. All events, both major and minor, have been identified by fPCA. The major economic events, especially the 2008 Great Recession, along with several minor events, showed a strong leading indicator in the density index derived from Synchrosqueezing. The capability of this integrated analytics suite is demonstrated in this article, and it motivates further studies encompassing data sets from broader sectors. As a complement to existing model-driven approach, this would lead to achieving a robust and reliable method that can help in taking measures to avoid catastrophic collapse in the constantly evolving financial system.     

厂商双赢的战略

国际品牌一向被人们视为可靠和信誉的指向标,而零售商品牌则是实用、实惠的代名词,既竞争,又互补。那么。二者如何拓展各自的市场领地？如何合作共同拓展市场领地？     

Contractual Mix Between Cash and Kind Wages of Casual Workers in an Agrarian Economy

A two‐agent general‐equilibrium model is developed for explaining the mix of wage payment between cash and kind among landowners and workers. Its focus is on how, in the absence of insurance instruments but in the presence of heterogeneous tastes and attitudes toward risk among agents, the payment mix between cash and kind can serve as a welfare‐improving, risk‐hedging device. The model is used to determine how this optimal mix of wage payment would be affected by changes in risk‐aversion, consumption preferences, technology, price risk, and production risk. While the complexity and nonlinearity of the model make it impossible to obtain clear‐cut analytical results, simulation results are derived and shown to be rather robust. These results are also broadly supported by the findings of a small‐scale survey of agricultural wage contracts in India.     

Adversary activities and per capita income growth

When some present or future markets are either imperfect or incomplete, the selfish motivations of individual agents may (but not necessarily) lead to rent-seeking activities that can make society worse off. Legal activities tend to raise the costs of doing business. Moreover, because they are biased in the direction of suits by firms and consumers against other firms, they may as a whole lower profit and hence both investment and growth rates relative to what they would be without such activities. This paper uses international cross-section data to provide a simple test of this hypothesis. Despite the crudeness of the test, the small size of the sample and possible ambiguities in interpretation, the results provide a tentative confirmation of the hypothesis.     

U.S. presidential cycles and the foreign exchange market

We examine the association between the foreign exchange rate of the US dollar and US presidential cycles. Results show that Republican presidencies tend to start with a strong dollar, which then depreciates over the course of the presidency. In contrast, Democratic presidencies tend to begin with a weak dollar that then appreciates. These patterns result in an apparent presidential effect in US foreign exchange rates, the direction of which depends on whether exchange rates are measured by levels or by returns.