Information from successive changes in gold and silver prices during phases of the business cycles

This paper concerns the behavior of gold and silver prices on a daily, weekly and monthly time span during January 1970 to December 1989. The methodology consists of extracting the predictive power of time series of changes in past prices for obtaining optimal forecasts for next-period changes in prices. Optimizations are made in the context of information theory via minimizing the degree of diversity between the actual and predicted changes in prices. This methodology has merit in that it does not rest on, generally speaking, unacceptable assumptions regarding the shape of the distribution, stationarity of variance or its existence. The behavior of gold and silver prices are studied during peak to trough and trough to peak of the business cycles over 1970–1989. It is generally shown that information contained in past prices of gold and silver does not allow one to predict next-period changes in prices in the short run. However, longer-term predictions are possible. This study further reveals that as the length of the time interval expands, gold prices exhibit a higher degree of dependency on past prices than silver.     

Conventions and Gaming in Las Vegas: Friends,Enemies, or Strangers?

As cities look at various industries to strengthen their economies, officials have begun to examine conventions and gaming more closely as they have often been considered “recession-proof.” This study utilizes time series regression to analyze the effects of convention attendance and hotel occupancy on monthly gaming revenues for Las Vegas from 2002 to 2013. Three commonly held opposing viewpoints in trade literature are that conventions reduce, augment, or complement gaming. These viewpoints produced the hypotheses for this study. It was found that convention attendance had no significant relationship with gaming revenue; however, citywide hotel occupancy was found to have a significant positive relationship with gaming revenue. This finding rules out the reduction and augmentation hypotheses.     

International Market Segmentation and Cross-Export Strategies Development Case Study: Iranian Furniture Industry

ABSTRACT

By developing an international market and significant differences between countries in this regard, segmentation becomes an increasingly important concept in marketing. In this article, the international market of Iranian furniture industry is segmented and cross-exporting strategies are developed to increase the market share of Iranian furniture in each segment. To achieve this, two distance functions are introduced based on correlation between export groups to cluster countries with k-means algorithm. After market segmentation for increasing sales in each segment, cross-exporting strategies are predicted by extracting association rules in each segment based on Apriori algorithm to set export baskets.     

Interpretive management: what general managers can learn from design

The past two decades have seen a dramatic acceleration in the pace of marketplace change. Companies have abandoned the old hierarchical model, with its clean functional divisions and clear lines of authority, and adopted flatter, less bureaucratic structures. But if most organizations have begun to adapt to the uncertainty of rapid change, most managers have not. They remain locked into the mechanical mind-set of the industrial age--that is, they assume that any management challenge can be translated into a clearly defined problem for which an optimal solution can be found. That approach works in stable markets and even in markets that change in predictable ways. Today's markets, however, are increasingly unstable and unpredictable. Managers can never know precisely what they're trying to achieve or how best to achieve it. They can't even define the problem, much less engineer a solution. The challenges facing the general manager in these circumstances, the authors argue, resemble those typically confronted by design managers. In the unpredictable world of research and design, neither the flow of the development process nor its end point can be defined at the outset. Rather than the traditional analytical approach to management, the design world requires an interpretive one. And that approach is equally well suited to rapidly changing, unpredictable markets. The authors describe how companies such as Levi Strauss & Company and Chiron Corporation have stayed at the top of their industries by adopting just such an interpretive approach to management.     

Information content of U.S. treasury inflation-indexed bonds

U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds are designed to provide a stable real return before taxes. A comparison between these bonds and conventional bonds reveals that the effective real yield of U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is attractive. The econometric results suggest, however, that the real rate provided by U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is not independent of inflation, implying that the Fisher hypothesis is contradicted by the data. An implication of negative correlation between the real rate and inflation is that the time to buy U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is when inflation is low. While the yields on U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds are shown to reflect inflation by a lag of about one month, nominal interest rates do not fully adjust to inflation. The author would like to thank Richard A. Cohn and Mahmoud Wahab for their advice and comments.     

Sources of support and expatriation: a multiple stakeholder perspective of expatriate adjustment and performance in Malaysia

This research tests the role of perceived support from multinational corporations and host-country nationals for the adjustment of expatriates and their spouses while on international assignments. The investigation is carried out with matched data from 134 expatriates and their spouses based in foreign multinationals in Malaysia. The results highlight the different reliance on support providers that expatriates and their accompanying spouses found beneficial for acclimatizing to the host-country environment. Improved adjustment in turn was found to have positive effects on expatriates' performance. The research findings have implications for both international human resource management researchers and practitioners.     

Psychological Capital: Impacts on Asset Management

Drawing together the areas of behavioral finance and positive psychology, the present research sought to investigate whether the psychological capital of investment fund managers is associated with fund performance in a context of financial instability. The theoretical propositions were presented and evaluated empirically through primary data on investment fund manager profiles and secondary data on the cumulative stock fund returns. The results indicate that funds managed by managers with greater resilience and optimism obtained a higher return than the mean profitability in a period of market instability.     

Corporate environmental reporting: Are French firms compliant with the Task Force on Climate Financial Disclosures' recommendations?

This article deals with the practices of French corporate environmental disclosure with a focus on climate-related risks. In particular, it aims to analyse the compliance of CAC 40 firms with the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (2017), an international initiative made up by Financial Stability Board to enhance financial transparency. On the basis of a content analysis of firms' reference documents spanning 2015–2018, we constructed the Climate Compliance Index (CCI) to evaluate whether firms disclose information on climate risks and opportunities about governance, strategy, risk management and metrics. Our results highlight a gradual increase of the CCI despite disparities across sectors and management areas. The content analysis allows us to develop a set of indicators frequently reported by domain and to identify and define climate risks and opportunities and their financial impacts per sector, which is a first step to improve the disclosure of non-financial information.     

Crowding,satiation, and saturation: The days of television series' lives

The performance of firms depends not just on the structure of the industries in which they compete but also on their relative positioning within those industries, in terms of operating within particular niches. We propose that demand for these niches depends endogenously on the historical ecology of the products offered: Niches become saturated—reduced in their ability to support products—as a large number of previous offerings allows the audience to satisfy its desire for products of a particular type. Analyzing the survival rates of television series aired in the United States from 1946 to 2003, we found that the survival rates of future entrants fell with the extensiveness of recent offerings in the niche, and that the negative association between crowding and survival also weakened with this saturation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

One size does not fit all: Heterogeneous economic impact of integrated pest management practices for mango fruit flies in Kenya—a machine learning approach

Most previous studies evaluating agricultural technology adoption focus on estimating homogeneous average treatment effects across technology adopters. Understanding the heterogeneous effects and drivers of impact heterogeneity should enable interventions to be better targeted to maximise benefits. We apply machine learning using data from a randomised controlled trial to estimate the heterogeneous treatment effect of fruit fly IPM practices (i.e., parasitoids, orchard sanitation, use of food bait, biopesticides, male annihilation technique, and their combinations) in Central Kenya. Results suggest significant heterogeneity in the effect of IPM practices conditioned on household characteristics. The most important covariates explaining differences in treatment effects are wealth, distance to the mango fruit market, age of the household head, labour and experience in mango farming. Results further indicate that those with fewer mango trees benefit more from most IPM practices. Additional analysis across other covariates shows mixed results but generally suggests significant differences between households benefiting the most and those benefiting the least from IPM practices.