A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price,Inflation, Exchange Rate,and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia

This article provides a fresh insight into the dynamic nexus between oil prices, the Saudi/US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and output growth rate in Saudi Arabia’ economy, using novel Morlet’ wavelet methods. Specifically, it implements various tools of methodology: the continuous wavelet power spectrum, the cross-wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet coherency, the multiple and the partial wavelet coherence to the annual sample period 1969–2014. Our results unveil that the relationships among the variables evolve through time and frequency. From the time-domain view, we show strong but non-homogenous linkages between the four variables. From the frequency-domain view, we uncover significant wavelet coherences and strong lead-lag relationships. From an economic view, the wavelet analysis shows that Saudi economy is still exposed to several global risk factors, which are mainly related to the oil market volatility, and the pegging of the local currency to the US dollar. Such risk factors strongly and negatively affect the real economic growth, exert more pressure on inflation, and substantially limit the freedom to pursue an independent monetary policy.     

Testing PPP hypothesis under temporary structural breaks and asymmetric dynamic adjustments

ABSTRACT

We test the empirical validity of the PPP proposition under temporary structural breaks and dynamic nonlinear adjustments. Although several testing procedures have recently been proposed in the existing literature to investigate stochastic properties of the series under gradual breaks and nonlinear adjustments, none of these tests are compatible with the PPP proposition. Therefore, we propose new testing procedures that restrict the break to be temporary while simultaneously allowing for asymmetric dynamic nonlinear adjustment towards equilibrium. Using these newly proposed tests, we test stationarity of real exchange rate of 24 OECD countries vis-à-vis USA, and find support in favour of PPP proposition in majority of the countries.     

Is energy consumption effective to spur economic growth in Pakistan? New evidence from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests

The present study investigates the relationship between energy (renewable and nonrenewable) consumption and economic growth using Cobb–Douglas production function in case of Pakistan over the period of 1972–2011. We have used the ARDL bounds testing and Gregory and Hansen (1990) structural break cointegration approaches for long run while stationarity properties of the variables have been tested applying Clemente-Montanes-Reyes (1998) structural break unit root test.Our results confirm cointegration between renewable energy consumption, nonrenewable energy consumption, economic growth, capital and labor in case of Pakistan. The findings show that both renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption add in economic growth. Capital and labor are also important determinants of economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis validates the existence of feedback hypotheses between renewable energy consumption and economic growth, nonrenewable energy consumption and economic growth, economic growth and capital.     

Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?

This study investigates the relationship between foreign capital inflows and energy consumption by incorporating economic growth, exports and currency devaluation in energy demand function for the case of Pakistan. The long-run and short-run effects are examined via ARDL bounds testing procedure. Foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation (economic growth and exports) decrease (increase) energy consumption in long-run. The results confirm a feedback effect between foreign capital inflows and energy consumption. These findings would be helpful to policy makers in designing comprehensive economic and energy policies for utilizing foreign capital inflows as a tool for optimal use of energy sources to enhance economic development in long run.     

Pakistan tourism industry and challenges: a review

Travel and tourism has great association with other industries in the national economy making major indirect earns and also enhances foreign investment, opportunities of trade, investments in private, local development, and public infrastructure. Pakistan has rich potential of tourism due to its rich culture, geographical and biological diversity, and history. Tourism has developed as an instrument for creating considerable economic gains. The country has various tourist destinations at Swat, Malam Jabba, Behrain, Kalam, Shangla, Balakot, Kaghan, Naran, Ayoubia, Murree, Chitral, Gilgit Baltistan, Hunza, and Neelam valleys, other mountainous ranges, and historical and archaeological sites. Pakistan has great potential and offers diverse opportunities for tourists, such as trout fishing in the glacial water of Gilgit Baltistan and Swat rivers, Shandur Polo traditional tournament, paragliding, rock climbing, and trekking in northern areas, Jeep and camel safari in the Cholistan desert, Wild Boar hunting, and crabbing in the Arabian Sea.     

Normative Self-Interest or Moral Hypocrisy?: The Importance of Context

We re-examine the construct of Moral Hypocrisy from the perspective of normative self-interest. Arguing that some degree of self-interest is culturally acceptable and indeed expected, we postulate that a pattern of behavior is more indicative of moral hypocrisy than a single action. Contrary to previous findings, our results indicate that a significant majority of subjects (N = 136) exhibited fair behavior, and that ideals of caring and fairness, when measured in context of the scenario, were predictive of those behaviors. Moreover, measures of Individualism/Collectivism appear more predictive of self-interested behavior than out-of-context responses to moral ideals. Implications for research and practice are discussed. George W. Watson received his Ph.D. from Virginia Tech, his M.B.A. from California State at Fullerton, an M.S. in Systems Management from the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, an a B.A. in Business Administration from the University of Washington, Seattle. His teaching focus is on corporate social responsibility and ethics. Dr.Watson’s current research interests include moral psychology,ethical decision making, and ideology. He has published in Business Ethics Quarterly, Business and Society, and the Journal of Business Ethics. Farooq Sheikh received his BS in Physics from Indiana University of Pennsylvania, and his Ph.D. from Smeal College of Business, Penn State University. He is currently Assistant Professor of Operations Management, School of Business at the State University of New York at Geneseo. Dr. Sheik’s research interests include rational and behavioral models in business operations, bounded-rational behavioral models in population games, social norms, game theory and cross-disciplinary research involving behavioral models.     

Real Exchange Rate Changes and the Trade Balance: The Evidence from Pakistan

This study uses quarterly data from July 1980 to June 2006 to explore the relationship between changes in real exchange rate and the trade balance of Pakistan. Applying the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, we examine the existence of a possible long-run relationship. We find the following: (1) a long-run relationship between the series exists, and (2) the coefficient of elasticity is negative and statistically significant, which does not support for the J-relation.

Given this, the policymakers should take a conservative approach in using currency devaluation to cure the fundamental disequilibrium in the balance of payments. It is likely that such policy may not produce the desired outcome—i.e., the trade balance may not improve.     

Threat of termination and firm innovation

This study investigates how the ex-ante threat of termination affects firm performance in innovation measured by number of patents and citations. Empirical results show that the threat of termination is negatively associated with both measures of firm innovation. This relation however is sensitive to industry structure. The negative effect of the threat of termination on innovation is statistically significant only for high-tech firms. For low-tech firms there is no statistically significant relation between the threat of termination and firm innovation. One plausible explanation is that high-tech firms are inherently risky and have higher rates of project failure. Adding the risk of higher threat of termination makes the manager more risk averse and forces her to avoid investing in value increasing innovations. Managers in low-tech firms don’t face such pressures. The policy implication is that high-tech firms should lower threat of termination and increase tolerance for project failure to encourage innovation.     

Firm performance,corporate governance and executive compensation in Pakistan

This study examines the effects of firm performance and corporate governance on chief executive officer (CEO) compensation in an emerging market, Pakistan. Using a more robust Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation approach for a sample of non-financial firms listed at Karachi Stock Exchange over the period 2005–2012, we find that both current- and previous-year accounting performances has positive influence on CEO compensation. However, stock market performance does not appear to have a positive impact on executive compensation. We further find that ownership concentration is positively related with CEO compensation, indicating some kind of collusion between management and largest shareholder to get personal benefits. Inconsistent with agency theory, CEO duality appears to have a negative influence, while board size and board independence have no convincing relationship with CEO compensation, indicating board ineffectiveness in reducing CEO entrenchment. The results of dynamic GMM model suggest that CEO pay is highly persistent and takes time to adjust to long-run equilibrium.     

Stabilization and nonfederal behaviour in an open federal State: An econometric study of the fixed exchange rate,Canadian Case

During their attempts at stabilization, the central authorities in a federal system often face the prospect of lack of co-operation by junior levels of government. In the context of a macroeconometric model of the Canadian economy, this paper presents a framework for assessing the importance of junior government behavior to the outcome of centrally directed stabilization policies. The results do not confirm the view that the success of these policies requires nonfederal government co-operation. Relatively extreme assumptions about discretionary nonco-operation by junior jurisdictions are needed to conclude stabilization by the central authorities would not work at all simply because of this lack of co-operation.