Foreign exchange risk and the cross-section of stock returns

We examine the relation between the cross-section of US stock returns and foreign exchange rates during the period from 1973 to 2002. We find that stocks most sensitive to foreign exchange risk (in absolute value) have lower returns than others. This implies a non-linear, negative premium for foreign exchange risk. Sensitivity to foreign exchange generates a cross-sectional spread in stock returns unexplained by existing asset-pricing models. Consequently, we form a zero-investment factor related to foreign exchange-sensitivity and show that it can reduce mean pricing errors for exchange-sensitive portfolios. One possible explanation for our findings includes Johnson's [2004. Forecast dispersion and the cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Finance, 59, 1957–1978] option-theoretic model in which expected returns are decreasing in idiosyncratic cashflow volatility.     

Cross‐Country Evidence on the Importance of Auditor Choice to Corporate Debt Maturity

We examine the importance of Big Four audits in reducing agency costs evident in corporate debt maturity worldwide. Analyzing a large sample of public firms from 42 countries reveals that the fraction of long‐term debt in firms' capital structures rises with the presence of a Big Four auditor, suggesting that higher‐quality audits substitute for short‐term debt for monitoring purposes. In additional analyses, we find that the role that auditor choice plays in debt maturity is concentrated in firms from countries with strong legal institutions governing property rights and creditor rights. Collectively, our research implies that Big Four audits matter to corporate debt maturity, although the impact is isolated in firms operating in countries with more protective legal regimes.     

Too dynamic to fail: empirical support for an autocatalytic model of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis

Solomon and Golo (Account Econ Law 3(3):167–260, 2013) have recently proposed an autocatalytic (self-reinforcing) feedback model which couples a macroscopic system parameter (the interest rate), a microscopic parameter that measures the distribution of the states of the individual agents (the number of firms in financial difficulty) and a peer-to-peer network effect (contagion across supply chain financing). In this model, each financial agent is characterized by its resilience to the interest rate. Above a certain rate the interest due on the firm’s financial costs exceeds its earnings and the firm becomes susceptible to failure (ponzi). For the interest rate levels under a certain threshold level, the firm loans are smaller then its earnings and the firm becomes ‘hedge.’ In this paper, we fit the historical data (2002–2009) on interest rate data into our model, in order to predict the number of the ponzi firms. We compare the prediction with the data taken from a large panel of Italian firms over a period of 9 years. We then use trade credit linkages to discuss the connection between the ponzi density and the network percolation. We find that the ‘top-down’–‘bottom-up’ positive feedback loop accounts for most of the Minsky crisis accelerator dynamics. The peer-to-peer ponzi companies contagion becomes significant only in the last stage of the crisis when the ponzi density is above a critical value. Moreover the ponzi contagion is limited only to the companies that were not dynamic enough to substitute their distressed clients with new ones. In this respect the data support a view in which the success of the economy depends on substituting the static ‘supply-network’ picture with an interacting dynamic agents one.     

One-Shot Public Mediated Talk

We show that any correlation device with rational coefficients can be generated by a mechanism, where each player sends a private message to a mediator who in turn makes a public deterministic announcement. It is then shown that the mechanism can be adapted also to situations with differential information, where the correlation device itself depends on the players' private messages that may vary with their realized types. All the mechanisms suggested are immunized against individual deviations. Therefore, by using them, players can implement any correlated or communication equilibrium.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: C72.     

Enhancing human–computer interaction design education: teaching affordance design for emerging mobile devices

The evolution of human–computer interaction design (HCID) over the last 20 years suggests that there is a growing need for educational scholars to consider new and more applicable theoretical models of interactive product design. The authors suggest that such paradigms would call for an approach that would equip HCID students with a better understanding of the social context of technology design and development. An intrinsic part of the proposed pedagogical model is the concept of affordance or that which implicitly suggests to the user a particular kind of functionality of the product. According to cognitive theory, people approach multi-functional mobile devices by building mental models of their functions, starting with physical appearance. A case study of an HCID teaching strategy, based upon the primacy of affordance, highlights how students can be taught a range of knowledge domains for product design to support creative problem-solving and critical thinking skills.     

The Effects of the Asian Crisis on Global Equity Markets

We investigate the comovement of daily returns from 13 Asian and non‐Asian markets before and after the advent of the Asian crisis in July 1997. For individual pairs of markets, our analysis shows a seven‐fold increase in feedback relations. For the markets as a group, we find a reduction in the number of common factors that generate returns. Since the post‐crisis period included the collapse of the Russian market and attack on the Brazilian real, we also analyze six three‐month subperiods surrounding the crisis. We find that the perceived increase in comovement during the post‐crisis interval was the result of subperiod transitory shocks.     

Dynamics of Private and Public Real Estate Markets

Using five assets (T-bills, bonds, stocks, and both public and private real estate), this study investigates how cointegration of capital markets affects the dynamics of public and private real estate markets. The results show that the price indices of the five assets are nonstationary and cointegrated. Some implications for the long-term equilibrium relationship for portfolio diversification, price discovery and prediction are discussed. In a Granger causality framework, error-correction augmented VAR models (VECM) and unrestricted VAR models are compared with respect to the conclusion regarding the interaction between public and private real estate returns. VECM is also shown to improve the prediction of private real estate returns relative to an unrestricted VAR model. These results raise questions about previous research studies regarding the dynamics between public and private real estate returns. It is shown that the long-term equilibrium relationship establishes a feedback between the two real estate markets, but the private market seems to informationally lead the public one. Possible explanations are also explored.     

Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Merton (1987) meets Miller (1977)

Merton [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510] predicts that idiosyncratic risk should be priced when investors hold sub-optimally diversified portfolios, and cross-sectional stock returns should be positively related to their idiosyncratic risk. However, the literature generally finds a negative relationship between returns and idiosyncratic risk, which is more consistent with Miller's [1977. Risk, uncertainty, and divergence of opinion. Journal of Finance 32, 1151–1168] analysis of asset pricing under short-sale constraints. We examine the cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic risk while explicitly recognizing the confounding effects that dispersion of beliefs and short-sale constraints produce in the Merton framework. We find strong support for Merton's [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510] model among stocks that have low levels of investor recognition and for which short selling is limited. For these stocks, the relation between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns is positive, as predicted by Merton [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510].