Valuing GM technologies using real options: the case of drought tolerant wheat in Australia

ABSTRACT

In this article we seek to estimate the value of a partially-developed crop technology from the perspective of the firm developing the technology. Firms need this value estimation to decide whether their technology will earn a sufficient return in the market to justify investing in it. However, determining the (ex-ante) value of the technology before it is commercialised is challenging as the technology is not yet in the market and hence the demand function has not yet been defined. An alternative valuation method is required. We use risk premiums, Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis and we demonstrate this combination of valuation tools on wheat that is currently being developed in Australia to be drought tolerant. The results indicate that this drought tolerant wheat variety is likely to be adopted by farmers in most regions and has a pre-commercialisation value that justifies continued investment in its development. We also identified South Australia as a region in which the new variety would not be sufficiently valuable to farmers to see them adopt it and we consider possible explanations for this outcome.     

Driving forces of chemical risks for the European biodiversity

In the framework of the EU-funded research project ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks with tested Methods), an original method combining the DPSIR (driving forces–pressures–state–impacts–responses) framework and an analysis based on the distinction between the four spheres of sustainability (environmental, economic, social and political) has been developed. This paper presents the application of this method, called “the tetrahedral DPSIR” for the identification and analysis of driving forces of environmental chemicals risks for biodiversity, in Europe. The purpose of this methodology is to help reduce the pressures on biodiversity through modifying the driving forces behind them by offering scientific advice to policy makers. We frame our analysis in the context of the current policy, namely the implementation of REACH (Regulation on the Registration, Evaluation, and Authorization of CHemicals).     

Gender Equality and Taxation Policies in the EU

Intereconomics - The persisting gender differences in employment rates and patterns and gender gaps in unpaid care work, employment rates, income, old age security, poverty and wealth are all...     

Technical efficiency of high technology medicine

Intensive care units (ICUs) are classic examples of high technology medicine. The ICU has become an essential step in the clinical management of patients passing through a phase of critical illness, However, the costs are extremely h9gh (1% of GNP in the USA), whereas it has not ben adeqyately demonstrated that routine admission to intensive care is associated with an increase in survival rate and a decrease in morbidity. Consequently, intensive care is a logical arena in which to encourage more efficient use. The paper focuses on determinates of the technical efficiency of the ICU. Technical efficiency can only be ensured when the ICU is conceived as a responsibility centre where inputs, throughputs and outputs are measured. The reaponsbility centre in characterized by management control, which is dependent on reliable information regarding incentives and constraints of ICU performance. On the basis of the medical and economic literature, conjectures are made on determinants of ICU performance. In addition, some results are presented of a feasibility study commissional by the Netherlands Ministry of Health.     

The influence of negative marketplace information on consumer attitudes toward a service establishment

Market information about service providers and retailers can significantly influence how customers view firms. Prior research indicates that the impact of such information (especially when it is counter to consumers’ initial views of a firm) is dependent upon the nature of the customers’ evaluations, as well as the nature of the information itself. The current study examines these issues in the context of attitudes toward, and negative reviews about, a service provider (a new restaurant chain). An experimental study partially supports prior research findings and suggests a new process using a validated measure distinguishing between hedonic and utilitarian dimensions of attitude. Implications of our results are provided for theory and practice.     

The influence of tactile input on the evaluation of retail product offerings

Retailers can benefit from allowing customers to touch their products. The influence of tactile input on evaluation, however, remains undemonstrated in the literature. In four experiments, effects of tactile input were observed for product categories wherein tactile input was diagnostic, and depended on product quality. While this effect was moderated by individual differences in need for touch when there was no opportunity for multiple product comparisons, there was no support for a mediating role of affect. Implications for retailing theory and practice are discussed.     

Utilization of health services by the injured residents in Kumasi, Ghana

The objective was to determine the pattern of health service utilization by the injured in Kumasi, Ghana and thus to gain information useful for the strengthening of trauma care in that environment. A household survey was utilized as it was anticipated that many injured might not receive formal medical care and a total of 11,663 persons living in 264 clusters in Kumasi were surveyed. One-third of all injured did not receive any formal medical care, mainly due to financial constraints. Altogether, 37% of the injured attended a hospital and 34% attended a clinic. Among the severely injured (> or =1 month disability) attending a clinic, most (76%) used it as the sole source of care. Most (54%) of these clinics were private. Efforts to strengthen trauma care in urban Africa need to address financial barriers to care and need to consider clinics, as well as the main hospitals.     

Improving telephone fundraising by use of self‐prophecy

The self‐prophecy phenomenon served as the basis for a simple, inexpensive technique aimed at increasing donations in a telephone fundraising drive. Self‐prophecy is predicated on two psychological effects. First, asking people to make predictions about normatively influenced behaviours results in biased responses—people respond as they think they should. Secondly, when later asked to perform those same behaviours, people tend to be consistent with their predictions. In an experiment, asking people to make a prediction increased the success rate from 30.4 per cent to 49 per cent, relative to a control group. Although it may be limited to occasional use, the self‐prophecy technique appears a simple and economical tool for increasing donations. Copyright © 2000 Henry Stewart Publications.     

Effects of product-specific word-of-mouth communication on product category involvement

Drawing primarily from categorization theory, this paper presents justification for the effects of word-of-mouth (WOM) communication on product category involvement. Results of an empirical test of this relationship are presented showing an enduring effect of positive WOM communication on product category involvement; this effect was not found for negative WOM. These results suggest that positive WOM about one firm's brand may help competitors by increasing involvement, thus generating more sales (not necessarily of one's own brand) in an entire product category. Our findings, coupled with categorization theory, provide support for a series of propositions presented concerning the effects of changes in product category involvement on nondiscussed brand attitudes and purchase intentions.