STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION FOR LONG‐TERM INVESTORS: PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY AND PRIOR INFORMATION

We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the long‐run risk for three asset classes: stocks, bills and bonds. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression with an uninformative prior we find that parameter uncertainty raises the annualized long‐run volatilities of all three asset classes proportionally with the same factor relative to volatilities that are conditional on maximum likelihood parameter estimates. As a result, the horizon effect in optimal asset allocations is much weaker compared to models in which only equity returns are subject to parameter uncertainty. Results are sensitive to alternative informative priors, but generally the term structure of risk for stocks and bonds is relatively flat for investment horizons up to 15 years. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

Transaction cost economics and the roles of national culture: a test of hypotheses based on Inglehart and Hofstede

Transaction cost economics (TCE) is probably the most widely accepted theory on how firms can gain competitive advantage through efficient organization of their economic transactions. However, by focusing on the competitive environment in which companies operate, it abstracts from the cultural context in which governance decisions are made. We study the cultural boundedness of TCE using two seminal cultural theories: the political science/sociology framework of Inglehart and the management science framework of Hofstede. We use these theories to develop (main-effect) hypotheses about the cultural contexts in which TCE has higher predictive power as well as (interaction) hypotheses regarding particular cultural contexts that may inherently be more inclined than others to adopt certain non-market governance modes if the market “fails.” Hypotheses are tested using a meta-analysis on data collected from 128 studies from 12 countries on 3 continents, representing governance decisions of 60,926 companies. We find that TCE is a universal theory across all cultural contexts. This being said, we find that in societies low on power distance and in societies characterized by a strong emphasis on secular-rational and self-expression values, companies are more strongly guided in their governance decisions by economic, transaction-cost considerations than companies in societies high on power distance and in countries that are characterized by traditional and survival values. Further, TCE’s power to predict the specific type of non-market governance employed by the firm is systematically moderated by the national culture in which the firm operates. The power of TCE for predicting hierarchical governance is higher in countries that rate high on secular-rational values and on uncertainty avoidance and low on long-term orientation, whereas TCE is more diagnostic for predicting relational governance in countries high on self-expression values and low on power distance and on uncertainty avoidance. In sum, our meta-analysis provides support for our thesis that to fully understand governance choices made by firms, we need to integrate TCE and cultural theory. While managers around the world are guided by economic considerations, the cultural context in which they operate exerts a substantial—and predictable—contingent effect on their governance choices.     

Decline and variability in brand loyalty

In this paper, we examine the over-time behavior of brand loyalty for a large set of brands drawn from 21 consumer packaged goods categories. Using the brand-loyalty operationalization of Colombo and Morrison (1989), the following conclusions are obtained. First, little support is found for the often-heard contention that brand loyalty is gradually declining over time. Second, while the short-run variability around a brand's mean loyalty level is not negligible, no evidence is found that this variability has systematically increased over time, and it can be reduced considerably through a simple smoothing procedure. Finally, the brand-loyalty pattern for market-share leaders is found to be more stable than for other brands. The study findings were robust to variation in the time interval used to construct the switching matrices, and to different treatments of multiple purchases.     

The relationship between price and quality in the marketplace

Summary In a competitive market one might expect a strong positive relationship between price and product quality. This paper reports the results of an empirical investigation into the strength of the price-quality relationship. The data set consisted of 413 product tests, involving 6580 brands, published inConsumentengids from 1977–1986. For most products the relationship between price and quality was weak. Hypotheses were developed and tested to explain the variation of price-quality correlations across products. Further, price-quality correlations were found to be lower when the inflation rate was relatively high. It was concluded that, in general, price appears to be a poor market signal of quality.The author wishes to thank two anonymous referees for giving valuable comments on a previous draft of this article.     

Servbrand Framework: A Business-To-Business Services Brand Equity Framework

ABSTRACT

Purpose: The research reported on here set out to develop a tailored branding model for business to business (B-to-B) services by applying the brand resonance pyramid to a selected B-to-B services context.

The brand resonance pyramid was developed based on research that was predominantly consumer product or individual brand oriented, though one of the objectives when the model was developed was that “the model had to be versatile and applicable to all possible kinds of brands and industry settings. As more diverse applications of branding continued to emerge for products, services, organizations, people, places, and so forth, the model needed to have far-ranging relevance”. The brand resonance pyramid therefore had to be applicable to any context, including B-to-B services contexts. However, consumer goods branding strategies are not directly transferable to B-to-B or services markets and there are documented differences between the B-to-B and business-to-consumer (B2C) markets and products and services contexts. There is also doubt regarding the validity of the contention that the brand resonance pyramid should be applicable to the B-to-B sector.

Methodology: Using an interpretivist qualitative research approach and an exploratory research strategy, the Servbrand framework was developed empirically by applying the brand resonance pyramid to a selected B-to-B services context. Fourteen useful in-depth interviews were obtained from appropriate and information rich participants that represented more than 14 of the 89 organization that were included in the selection frame. Some of the participants were responsible for the relevant decisions of more than one organization.

Findings: The results from the study reported on here (summarized as Figure 5) prompted the inclusion of a people dimension and elevated the importance of relationships in an amended B-to-B services brand equity framework. The people brand-building block includes the dimensions of attitude and demeanor, personality and values, personableness, product knowledge and client knowledge. Relationships, as the ultimate aim of the framework, concern both interpersonal relationships and partnerships.

The article presents a conceptual framework to guide effective brand building strategies in a selected B-to-B services context. Researchers can use the framework to test its applicability in other contexts, which will contribute to the amendment of a significant brand equity management framework.

The Servbrand framework can assist marketing practitioners to improve the effectiveness of strategic brand management for B-to-B services.

Contribution: The empirical research contributes to three areas of brand equity research, namely: 1) the offering type – by investigating service offerings rather than product offerings; 2) the brand level – by investigating organization-level brands rather than product-level brands; and 3) context – by investigating a B-to-B context rather than a B2C context. A revised brand resonance pyramid is proposed and called the Servbrand framework.     

Human resource practices and discrimination in South Africa: overcoming the apartheid legacy

While there is some level of isomorphism and convergence in HRM practices, country-specific differences remain, notwithstanding globalization and the influence of increasingly powerful multinationals. Much work has occurred on diversity management and cultural aspects of management in South Africa (SA). This analysis finds that local institutional context in labour relations and particularism in practices remain important, although the influence of convergent forces such as globalization, information technology and increased competition has become much more prominent in post-apartheid SA. Human resource practitioners in SA see the most important workplace challenges as performance improvement, employment equity, training and development and managing trade union expectations. This article critically evaluates the effects of recent legislative measures, particularly labour court and arbitration awards aimed at addressing the adverse impact of past unfair discrimination on pay practices and skills development. The latter are found to be interrelated, sensitive and difficult areas of discrimination in respect of legal proof.     

Brand Equity, Consumer Learning and Choice

The aim of this paper is to explore the links between brand equity, consumer learning and consumer choice processes in general and considering two recent trends in the market place: store brands and the Internet. We first review the advances that have occurred in brand equity research in marketing in the past decade, with particular emphasis on integrating the separate streams of research emanating from cognitive psychology and information economics. Brand equity has generally been defined as the incremental utility with which a brand endows a product, compared to its non-branded counterpart. We amplify this definition: we propose that brand equity be the incremental effect of the brand on all aspects of the consumer's evaluation and choice process. We propose an agenda of research based on this amplified definition.     

Cost-benefit analysis of alien vegetation clearing for water yield and tourism in a mountain catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa

Economic analysis is used to assess the costs and benefits of restoration following clearing of invasive alien trees in the floristically rich Fynbos mountainous area near Franschhoek, Western Cape of South Africa. The Groot Drakenstein, Franschhoek and Jonkershoek mountains receives more rainfall than the surrounding areas and is an important source of water for the city of Cape Town. The costs of alien invasive plant removal, gully-erosion repair and reseeding with indigenous plants are considered in a case-study cost-benefit analysis of restoration, in terms of the water and tourism benefits derived. Three different options of restoration (comprehensive, moderate, basic) were analysed under three different economic scenarios (optimistic, realistic, pessimistic) and the costs of which have been weighted up against the income derived from the supply of water and tourism. The results have shown that despite the high costs of restoration, the basic restoration option costs were out-weighed by the water and tourism benefits derived. This was also true of the moderate restoration option, when evaluated under the optimistic scenario and using an 8% discount rate, or a 3% discount rate under any scenario. However, this was not the case in the moderate restoration option when using an 8% discount rate in conjunction with the realistic and pessimistic scenarios. Neither was it the case when using a 12% discount rate, irrespective of the scenario. Under no scenario was the cost of a comprehensive restoration option outweighed by the benefits quantified, irrespective of the discount rate used. It was concluded that further restoration, in addition to the mere clearing of alien invasive plants, would be economically viable under certain assumptions and conditions.