POPULATION AGEING,CAPITAL INTENSITY AND LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY

This paper analyses the implications of population ageing for the capital intensity of output and, therefore, labour productivity. Population ageing leads to sectoral shifts in demand for goods and services. If such shifts occur between goods that differ in their capital intensity, there will be a change in the average capital intensity of the economy and, therefore, in average labour productivity. In order to gauge the magnitudes of such effects, the present paper reports simulations of a calibrated model with two final goods and two intermediate goods, using data for two Pacific Rim countries for comparison: the United States and Australia. The data for these countries suggest that population ageing will, on average, shift expenditure towards goods with a relatively high capital intensity. The magnitude of the increase in labour productivity according to the simulations is likely to be small, but perhaps not trivial: in the order of 1–4% per annum by 2050. This might partially offset the negative effect of ageing on living standards.     

Effect of World Fertility Scenarios on International Living Standards

This paper applies a two good, multi-region Ramsey-Solow model of the world economy to determine the impact that alternative world fertility rates would have on international capital markets and living standards. Notable features of the model include: relative consumption demands and relative employment efficiencies that vary by age, traded and non-traded goods, vintage technology, outward-looking reference consumption, a proportion of non-optimising rule-of-thumb consumers and imperfect capital mobility due to asymmetric information. The model suggests that projected demographic change will imply a flow of international capital from the ageing regions to the younger regions; and that the world interest rate will fall. The lower world interest rate will cause a loss in living standards for ageing regions, the lenders, and a gain for the younger regions, who are borrowers.     

THE IMPACT OF FORESTRY-RELATED ORDINANCES ON TIMBER HARVESTING IN ST. TAMMANY PARISH, LOUISIANA

Local government regulations of forestry practices on private land are often developed independently and without a full understanding of possible economic consequences. The number of forestry-related ordinances is growing, particularly in the southern United States. St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana, is a prime example of an increasingly exurbanized area that has passed a number of forestry-related ordinances. Impacts of forestry-related ordinances on timber harvesting activities were examined using seemingly unrelated regression. Results indicate that a significant negative relationship exists between an ordinance requiring a $10,000 road performance bond and the level of timber harvest in the Parish. ( JEL Q23, Q28)     

The Allocation of Food Expenditure in Married‐ and Single‐Parent Families

Differences in food expenditures in married‐ and single‐parent families are examined using the Consumer Expenditure Survey Diary Component (1990–2003). Single parents, compared to married parents, allocate a greater share of their food budget to alcohol and food purchased away from home; conversely, they spend a smaller share of their food budget on vegetables and fruits. Compared to married parents, single fathers spend a greater share on alcohol and food purchased away from home and a lesser share on vegetables, fruits, meat and beans, desserts and snacks, and prepared foods. Single mothers, compared to married parents, spend a greater share on grains and nonalcoholic beverages and a lesser share on vegetables and alcohol. Single mothers and fathers differ from each other in almost all categories of food and beverage expenditure. We also find important differences based on the employment status of parents in the household: families where all parents are employed, irrespective of family structure, spend a greater share of their food budgets on food purchased away from home and a lesser share on vegetables, fruits, milk, and meat and beans compared with married‐couple families in which the mother is not employed. We discuss ways in which family structure and parental employment status may be associated with food purchasing decisions.     

产业梯度转移与中国西部地区产业升级——基于全球价值链理论的分析

为避免沿袭东部地区的成长历程,在高速成长后,面临核心竞争力匮乏、缺乏后劲的前车之鉴,中国西部地区需要将自己纳入全球性思维框架中,重新解读产业梯度转移的含义,认识到西部地区不能仅仅是利用自身廉价的劳动力和自然资源,配合国外的品牌技术走下去,而是需要提升本土企业在全球价值链体系中的地位,通过产业升级不断从全球价值链的低端环节向高端环节推进。     

THE LABOUR SUPPLY AND SAVINGS EFFECTS OF SUPERANNUATION TAX CHANGES*

This paper investigates the effects on labour supply, consumption and savings of a change in the superannuation tax structure, involving the taxation of contributions to a fund, pre‐retirement earnings of the fund, and the benefits received from the fund during retirement. The effects on lifetime plans of tax changes are investigated using a simple three‐period model in which the final period is retirement. The effects of unanticipated changes, requiring revisions to plans, are examined. Although the partial effects of particular tax changes are unambiguous, the effects of allowing for a government budget constraint mean that it is difficult to predict a priori how labour supply is likely to be affected. However, private savings unambiguously fall.     

book reviews

THE CHANGING CONTOURS OF BRITISH INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS Nuffield College, Oxford WORK AND PEOPLE: AN ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF JOB ENRICHMENT Lodon School of Economics THE HIDDEN MEANING OF PAY CONFLICT University of Edinburgh COMPETITION AND CONTROL AT WORK Centre for Research in Industrial Democracy and Participation Glasgow University