The midterm review and the new challenges for EU agriculture

The Midterm Review and the New Challenges for EU Agriculture The Brussels Summit agreement of October 2002 on the financing of the CAP opens the way for a final agreement on enlargement and defines the level of the agricultural budget for the next financial perspective. Answering the how much question allows the debate to focus on the how question of support for EU agriculture. To these questions the Commission had responded with its Midterm Review of July 2002. Although proposals will have to be adapted in view of the new financial perspective, the fundamental issues addressed in the Midterm Review remain unchanged as these reflect the gradual shift from supply driven to demand driven orientations for the CAR The citizens of the EU seem to agree that EU agriculture should, at the same time, be competitive and promote the highest environmental, product quality and animal welfare standards. This apparent paradox implies, on the one hand, the need for lower prices and, on the other hand, higher production costs. To resolve this dilemma the underlying philosophy of the Midterm Review is to shift the policy debate onto the efficiency of the available policy instruments in meeting their stated objectives. Thus the need for safety‐net market support, decoupled income support and strengthened rural development. La revue à mi parcours et les nouveaux défis de l'agriculture européenne Grâce à l'accord obtenu sur le financement de la PAC au sommet de Bruxelles d'octobre 2002, la voie est maintenant ouverte à un accord final sur l‘élargissement et sur la définition du budget agricole pour les prochaines échéances. Répondre à la question “à quel niveau” permet au débat de se centrer sur le “comment” soutenir l'agriculture européenne. La commission a donné sa réponse à ces questions dans sa “revue à mi‐parcours”. Même si les propositions en question devront faire l'objet d'ajustements aux nouvelles perspectives budgétaires, les problèmes fondamentaux posés par la revue à mi‐parcours demeurent, dans la mesure où elles reflètent le passage graduel d'un pilotage de PAC par l'offre à un pilotage par la demande. Les citoyens de l'UE semblent d'accord pour dire que l'agriculture doit être à la fois compétitive, et obtenir les plus hauts standards possibles en matière de qualité et de bien‐être animal. Ce paradoxe apparent implique d'un côté, des prix plus bas, et de l'autre, des coûts de production plus élevés. Pour résoudre ce conflit, la philosophie sous‐jacente à la “revue à mi‐parcours” consiste à faire glisser le débat politique sur la question de l'efficacité des instruments disponibles et de leur aptitude à atteindre les objectifs ainsi fixés. D'où le besoin d'un filet de sécurité sur les marchés, d'un soutien découplé pour les revenus et d'un renforcement du développement rural. Die Zwischenbewertung und die neuen Herausforderungen an die Landwirtschaft der EU Das Abkommen vom Brüsseler Gipfel im Oktober 2002 zur Finanzierung der GAP eröffnet die Möglichkeit einer endgültigen Einigung im Hinblick auf die Erweiterung und legt die Höhe des Agrarhaushalts für die kommende Finanzplanungsperiode fest. Durch die Festlegung kann sich die Debatte nun der Frage widmen, auf welche Art und Weise die Landwirtschaft der EU unterstützt werden soil. Diesen beiden Aspekten hatte die Kommission in der Zwischenbewertung vom Juli 2002 Rechnung getragen. Obwohl die Vorschläge angesichts der neuen Finanzplanungsperiode angepasst werden müssen, bleiben die grundlegenden, in der Zwischenbewertung angesprochenen Probleme bestehen, da diese den schrittweisen Übergang der GAP von der Angebotsorientierung hin zur Nachfrageorientierung widerspiegeln. Die EU‐Bürger stimmen scheinbar darin überein, dass die Landwirtschaft der EU gleichermaßen wettbewerbsfähig sein und die höchsten Standards im Hinblick auf die Umwelt, die Produktqualität und den Tierschutz erreichen sollte. Dieser offenkundige Widerspruch erfordert einerseits niedrigere Preise und zieht andererseits höhere Produktionskosten nach sich. Zur Auflösung dieses Dilemmas sieht es der der Zwischenbewertung zugrunde liegende Ansatz vor, den Fokus der politischen Debatte darauf zu richten, wie effizient die verfügbaren Politikmaßnahmen zum Erreichen der Zielsetzung beitragen. Daraus ergibt sich die Notwendigkeit für eine Marktstützung als Sicherheitsnetz, für eine entkoppelte Einkommensstützung und für eine intensivere Entwicklung des ländlichen Raums.     

The rise and fall of a market leader: Frozen foods in the U.K.

This paper explores the nature of competitive assets that are based on control of part of a market's infrastructure using a case study of the U.K. frozen food market. Following an argument due to Stigler, the thesis of the paper is that such assets are inherently transitory, and that positions of market leadership based on them tend to erode. This argument is consistent with the experiences of Birds Eye during the post-War period.     

The USSR in the international division of labour up to the end of the 20th century

This article deals with the participation of the USSR in the international division of labour. It is concluded that the present export model of the country consisting of exports of raw materials (mainly energy) and intermediate products, is primarily due to the inability of the country to compete with the industrial, and especially the engineering products of the advanced countries in the world markets. This is due to the low technological and quality levels of the Soviet industry together with the existence of the richest mineral resources in the world within the USSR's boundaries. It is envisaged that within the time limits of this century, the export model of the country could be reformed substantially, under the condition that the new leadership of the USSR has the will and capability to perform radical, large-scale fundamental changes.     

Leadership Personality and Firm Culture during Hereditary Transitions in Family Firms: Model Development and Empirical Investigation

The present study is the first to propose a theoretical framework for an exploration of the relationship among organizational culture, leader personality, and the success of hereditary transitions in family businesses. Using Dyer's cultural framework and Jungian personality concepts, the authors test empirically this framework among family businesses in Cyprus. In turn, they identify certain common dimensions of leader personality and firm culture in relation to the success of a transition, which could serve as the basis for further research on the subject.     

Convergence of shocks and trade in the enlarged European Union

This paper explores the relation between trade flows and cross-country symmetry of supply and demand shocks using data from the EU-27 countries. Increased bilateral trade intensity is found to have a positive impact on the correlation of both demand and supply shocks. Intra-industry trade is found to be positively linked to correlations of supply-side shocks but negatively linked to correlations of demand shocks. Our results thus provide support for the argument that aggregate demand spillovers and intra-industry trade, rather than specialization, dominate in the process through which trade flows affect the cross-country transmission of shocks in Europe. At the same time, our estimates suggest that monetary-policy convergence in Europe (the circulation of the euro), while having increased symmetry of supply-side shocks, has had no direct favourable impact on symmetry of demand shocks. By contrast, the process of fiscal-policy convergence is found to have resulted in more correlated demand shocks across the EU member states.     

Mildly explosive autoregression under weak and strong dependence

A limit theory is developed for mildly explosive autoregression under both weakly and strongly dependent innovation errors. The asymptotic behaviour of the sample moments is affected by the memory of the innovation process both in the form of the limiting distribution and, in the case of long range dependence, in the rate of convergence. However, this effect is not present in least squares regression theory as it is cancelled out by the interaction between the sample moments. As a result, the Cauchy regression theory of Phillips and Magdalinos (2007a) is invariant to the dependence structure of the innovation sequence.     

What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?

After 2005, commodity prices experienced their longest and broadest boom since World War II. Agricultural prices have now come down considerably since their 2011 peak, but are still 40% higher in real terms than their 2000 lows. This paper briefly addresses the main arguments on the causes of the agricultural price cycle. It broadens the scope of analysis by focusing on six agricultural commodities, and identifies the relative weights of key quantifiable drivers of their prices. It concludes that increases in real income negatively affect real agricultural prices, consistent with the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis and its predecessor, Engel's Law. Energy prices matter most (not surprisingly, given the energy‐intensive nature of agriculture), followed by stock‐to‐use ratios and, to a lesser extent, ex‐change rate movements. The cost of capital affects prices only marginally, probably because it not only influences demand, but also evokes a supply response. The added value of these results lies in that, when examined in tandem and against market fundamentals, they challenge the conclusions from uni‐dimensional approaches that often put disproportionate weight on an individual factor.