On exact D-optimal designs with 2 two-level factors and n autocorrelated observations

In this paper we consider the exact D-optimal designs for estimation of the unknown parameters in the two factors, each at only two-level, main effects model with autocorrelated errors. The vector of the n random errors in the observed responses is assumed to follow a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)). The exact D-optimal designs seek the optimal combinations of the design levels as well as the optimal run orders, so that the determinant of the information matrix of BLUEs for the unknown parameters is maximized. Bora-Senta and Moyssiadis (1999) gave some conjectures about the exact D-optimal designs based on their experience of several exhaustive searches. In this paper their conjectures are partially proved to be true.Received: January 2003 / Accepted: October 2003Partially supported by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 91-2115-M-008-013.Supported in part by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 89-2118-M-110-003.     

Capitalization of Flood Insurance and Risk Perceptions in Housing Prices: An Empirical Agent‐Based Model Approach

Federally regulated or insured lenders in the United States are mandated to require flood insurance on properties that are located in areas at high risk of flooding. Despite the existence of this mandatory flood insurance requirement, take‐up rates for flood insurance have been low, and the federal government's exposure to uninsured property losses from flooding remains substantial. Meanwhile, the value of capital at risk varies significantly with flood events and changing risk perceptions, which necessitates mechanisms that stabilize these dynamics. In this article we discuss how a scenario of complete insurance uptake, under various risk attitudes, affects the value of properties in the 100‐year and 500‐year flood zones. Our results indicate that an increase in flood insurance uptake may provide such a mechanism by lowering the value of capital at risk in the flood zone consistently, independent of homeowners' risk attitudes. We apply an empirical adaptive agent‐based model to examine the capitalization of insurance costs, risk premiums, and their interaction in housing prices. Our approach combines widely‐used empirical hedonic analysis with the computational economic framework. We highlight the usefulness of our method in capturing the marginal implicit price of homeowners' preferences that may change over time and separately assess the effect of various factors and policies on property values, illustrating the agent‐based modeling as a valuable complement to traditional hedonic analysis.     

The causality examination between demand uncertainty and hotel failure: A case study of international tourist hotels in Taiwan

The hotel business is highly sensitive to economic cycles, as the industry faces high frequency and high fluctuation of uncertainty over the demand for lodging services. Without a thorough consideration on the issue, hotels may undergo a business crisis. This research therefore investigates the influence of demand uncertainty on hotel failure by using the operation data of international tourist hotels in Taiwan during 1995–2008. The analysis applies two stages of estimation. The first stage employs a first-order autoregressive model, AR(1), to model lodging demand uncertainty. The second stage estimates the likelihood of hotels’ failure by using a logit model. The results are supportive to determine that the demand uncertainty causes hotel failures.     

Empirical of the Taiwan stock index option price forecasting model – applied artificial neural network

This work presents a novel neural network model for forecasting option prices using past volatilities and other options market factors. Out of different approaches to estimating volatility in the option pricing model, this study uses backpropagation neural network to forecast prices for Taiwanese stock index options. The ability to develop accurate forecasts of grey prediction volatility enables practitioners to establish an appropriate hedging strategy at in-the-money option.     

Analysis and Forecast of the State of Environmental Protection in Russia

The main purpose of the present study is to analyse the emission dynamics of atmospheric and water pollutants in Russia and cost of their removal in the 1980s and early 1990s, and to forecast them by means of a Dynamic Input–Output Model according to different scenarios of future economic development till 1998. Main results of the work are:– methodological principles have been elaborated for singling out the environmental protection sector within the national economy;– a method has been offered for including the ecological block into a Dynamic Input–Output Model of the Russian economy;– a method of data preparation has been elaborated for the ecological block of the above-named model, the data base which characterizes the ecological situation in Russia has been formed and analysed;– calculations for 1994–1998 have been executed for forecasting the economic and ecological development of Russia using the above-mentioned model and the results obtained have been analysed. The results showed that if the existing tendencies towards low environmental protection capital costs remain the same, then the negative environmental impact will increase. In order to implement ecological programs and international agreements, to increase the proportion of removed pollutants, it is necessary to increase substantially expenditures on purifying water and air resources. The proportion of environmental protection investments in the total amount of the national economy capital costs should increase by up to 12–40% according to different scenarios of the economic development and different purposes of the environmental protection policy.     

ERM crisis in retrospect: What if a European central bank had been in existence before 1992?

This paper explores whether policy coordination or a single monetary policy implemented earlier would have kept the U.K. in the process of European monetary integration. On the basis of the pre-ERM crisis empirics by Douven and Plasmans (1996), a counterfactual game simulation approach is used, and five scenarios are established for comparison with the actual historical records. The final answer is negative.     

Impact of Chinese Agribusiness Entrepreneurs on the Local Land Market in the Russian Far East

Chinese originally migrated to the Russian Far East (RFE) to fill a labor shortage on collective farms. In more recent decades, some Chinese migrants have chosen to lease land from Russian farmers to manage their own farms. Rising soybean prices and the trade war between China and the United States have increased demand for land capable of producing soybeans. Thus, Chinese farmers in the RFE compete for land with Russians. The Chinese also contribute positively to local food security by increasing food availability and accessibility. This study uses an econometric model to analyze the impact of Chinese on local land markets in the RFE. Financial support for Russian farmers by the government depresses their demand for land; rising soybean prices and the employment of Chinese farm workers by Russian farmers encourage farm expansion, resulting in higher land prices. Selling farm produce to Chinese merchants increases the amount of land owned, cultivated, and rented by Russian farmers.     

Cultural Consonance in Leisure,Leisure Satisfaction,Life Satisfaction,and Self-Rated Health in Urban Taiwan

The purpose of this study threefold: to determine whether a shared cultural model of the importance of a set of leisure activities to a good leisure life existed in urban Taiwan, the degree to which cultural consonance in leisure mediates the relationship between leisure constraints and leisure satisfaction, and the degree to which leisure satisfaction affects life satisfaction and self-rated health. Results indicate that a cultural model of the importance of leisure activities to a good leisure life existed among sample members. Second, higher levels of self-reported participation in leisure activities that are culturally agreed upon as more important for a good leisure life are more strongly associated with leisure satisfaction than are activities culturally agreed upon as less important. Finally, leisure satisfaction strongly predicts both life satisfaction and self-rated health.     

An Economic Analysis of Auto Compensation Systems: Choice Experiences From New Jersey and Pennsylvania

Nearly since the first automobile traveled on U.S. soil, questions about how best to compensate people injured by their use have been raised. As early as in 1932, in fact, the tort system of imposing costs on negligent drivers was strongly criticized, and a system of compensation without regard to negligence recommended. Yet despite various efforts to identify and implement improved systems during the past more than 70 years, no clear best compensation mechanism has been found. Current discussions have focused on the “choice” system, under which insureds are allowed to select either a tort system or a no‐fault system of compensation at the time of insurance purchase. New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which implemented very similar choice programs in 1989 and 1990, respectively, offer an opportunity to observe the effects of choice on outcomes such as: use of attorneys, speed of payment, and consistency (equity) of payment. Our results indicate outcomes consistent with expectations in New Jersey (NJ), which switched from no‐fault to choice, but inconsistent with expectations in Pennsylvania (PA), which switched from tort to choice. Furthermore, analysis of tort versus no‐fault selectors postchoice in New Jersey and Pennsylvania does not offer clear evidence of no‐fault's lower administrative costs and speedier, more equitable payment in these jurisdictions.