The Effect of the Hedge Horizon on Optimal Hedge Size and Effectiveness When Prices are Cointegrated

This study compares two alternative regression specifications for sizing hedge positions and measuring hedge effectiveness: a simple regression on price changes and an error correction model (ECM). We show that, when the prices of the hedged item and the hedging instrument are cointegrated, both specifications yield similar results which depend on the hedge horizon (i.e., the time frame for measuring price changes). In particular, the estimated hedge ratio and regression R² will both be small when price changes are measured over short intervals, but as the hedge horizon is lengthened both measures will converge toward one. These results imply that, when prices are cointegrated, a longer hedge horizon will yield an optimal hedge ratio closer to one, while at the same time enhancing the ability to qualify for hedge accounting. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:837–876, 2012     

Airline hubs in the Single European Market: A benchmark analysis

‘Liberalization’ of European air markets could allow the formation of airline hubs to obtain the associated economies of scope and scale. This study simulates the formation of these hubs. A model of U.S. hub location, estimated as a function of demographic and economic characteristics, is applied to European cities to identify likely hub locations. The results provide a benchmark for evaluating future airline competition in the Single European Market. However, the study is only an approximate prediction of hub location because political and structural constraints will keep the European air market from developing the competitive atmosphere found in the U.S..     

Attitudes toward outdoor recreation development: An application of social exchange theory

A research project was undertaken within a multi‐county region in southeastern Ohio to ascertain the attitudes of local residents toward future outdoor recreation development within the area. A systematic random sample of 1493 respondents was drawn from a five‐county region to test a theoretical perspective developed from selected components of social exchange theory. The findings demonstrated that the respondents held very favorable attitudes toward outdoor recreation development. Multivariate analysis of the data revealed that the theoretical model was basically supported. The findings are discussed from both applied and theoretical perspectives.     

Government Deposit Insurance and the Diamond-Dybvig Model

The apparent banking market failure modeled by Diamond and Dybvig [1983] rests on their inconsistently applying their sequential servicing constraint to private banks but not to their government deposit insurance agency. Without this inconsistency, banks can provide optimal risk-sharing without tax-based deposit insurance, even when the number of type 1 agents is stochastic, by employing a contingent bonus contract. The threat of disintermediation noted by Jacklin [1987] in the nonstochastic case is still present but can be blocked by contractual trading restrictions. This article complements Wallace [1988], who considers an alternative resolution of this inconsistency.     

Patent Breadth, Patent Life, and the Pace of Technological Progress

In active investment climates where firms sequentially improve each other's products, a patent can terminate either because it expires or because a non-infringing innovation displaces its product in the market. We define the length of time until one of these happens as the effective patent life, and show how it depends on patent breadth. We distinguish lagging breadth, which protects against imitation, from leading breadth, which protects against new improved products. We compare two types of patent policy with leading breadth: (1) patents are finite but very broad, so that the effective life of a patent coincides with its statutory life, and (2) patents are long but narrow, so that the effective life of a patent ends when a better product replaces it. The former policy improves the diffusion of new products, but the latter has lower R&D costs.     

Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets

A vector autoregression model is used to evaluate dynamic relationships among international wheat prices. The effects of freight rates and exchange rates are also considered. Forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response functions are used to investigate price dynamics in six important international wheat markets. The results suggest significant dynamic relationships among prices in different international wheat markets and between the prices and exchange rates and transportation costs.
On s'est servi d'un modéle vectoriel à autorégression pour évaluer les relations dynamiques entre les cours du blé sur le marché international. On a également tenu compte de l'inci-dence des coûts de transport et du taux de change. La décomposition prévue de la variance de l'erreur et les fonctions de réaction ponctuelle ont également permis d'approfondir la dynamique des prix sur six grands marchés internationaux du blé. Les résultats suggérent des relations dynamiques notables entre les prix sur différents marchés internationaux du blé, de meme qu'entre les prix et le taux du change et les coûts de transport.     

A MODEL OF BUREAUCRACY AND CORRUPTION*

We analyze bureaucracy and corruption in a market with decentralized exchange and “lemons.” Exchange is modeled as a sequence of bilateral, random matches. Agents have private information about the quality of goods they produce and can supplement trade with socially inefficient bribes. Bureaucracy is modeled as a group of agents who enjoy centralized production and consumption. Transaction patterns between the bureaucracy and the private sector are fully endogenous. Centralized production and consumption in the bureaucracy give rise to low power incentives for the individual bureaucrats. As a result, private agents might bribe bureaucrats, whereas they do not bribe each other. An equilibrium with corruption and an equilibrium without corruption can coexist. We discuss some welfare implications of the model.