Migration Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Dual Labor Market

The paper uses a two–sector efficiency–wage model to analyze the consequences of immigration for a small open economy with a dual labor market. Immigrants are characterized by an (exogenous) return probability. Legal regulations impose preferential hiring of natives or "old" immigrants. As a result, there is sectoral segregation between natives and immigrants, leading to discrimination of the type equal pay for equal work,but unequal "work." In the short run (with sector–specific capital), immigration has a positive first–order impact on natives' welfare if migration policy favors segregation through high return rates or restrictive hiring practices ("guest–worker system"). In the long run, its effect is only determined by factor intensities (2 ¥ 2 model). Finally, the improved integration of migrants yields efficiency gains and improves aggregate welfare of all residents.     

The curse of natural resources in the transition economies*

The curse of natural resources is a well‐documented phenomenon for developing countries. Economies that are richly endowed with natural resources tend to grow slowly. Among the transition economies of the former ‘Eastern Bloc’, a similar pattern can be observed. This paper shows that a large part of the variation in growth rates among the transition economies can be attributed to the curse of natural resources. After controlling for numerous other factors, there is still a strong negative correlation between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Among the transition economies the prime reasons for the curse of natural resources were corruption and a neglect of basic education. In order to overcome the curse of natural resources and move to a sustainable path of development, the resource abundant transition countries should fight corruption and ensure that their resource revenues are invested in human capital or the preservation of natural capital.     

Strategisches Asset-Liability Management in der Versicherungswirtschaft — Ein Ansatz zur integrierten Bilanzstrukturoptimierung

Asset-Liability Management has gained increased significance within the German insurance industry. This was mainly driven by recent capital market developments. In fact, insurers have encountered challenges to earn given interest guarantees. Regulatory changes also require more sophisticated ALM-tools. Solvency II will change the underlying paradigm and shift balance sheets perception towards a market value oriented view. Especially liabilities will have to be accounted for using the fair value approach. Most ALM-tools appear to be unable to cope with these demands. To improve this current practice, in this paper a Markowitz-approach is employed in order to generate an integrated method for the optimization of assets and liabilities in the life insurance industry. This technique aims to link new regulatory requirements to the latest capital market theory and therefore delivers a procedure for an integrated asset allocation policy in the insurance industry.     

Asymptotics for Autocovariances and Integrated Periodograms for Linear Processes Observed at Lower Frequencies

One of the most frequently used class of processes in time series analysis is the one of linear processes. For many statistical quantities, among them sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations, central limit theorems are available in the literature. We investigate classical linear processes under a nonstandard observation pattern; namely, we assume that we are only able to observe the linear process at a lower frequency. It is shown that such observation pattern destroys the linear structure of the observations and leads to substantially different asymptotic results for standard statistical quantities. Central limit theorems are given for sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations as well as more general integrated periodograms and ratio statistics. Moreover, for specific autoregressive processes, the possibilities to estimate the parameters of the underlying autoregression from lower frequency observations are addressed. Finally, we suggest for autoregressions of order 2 a valid bootstrap procedure. A small simulation study demonstrates the performance of the bootstrap proposal for finite sample size.     

Time series momentum

We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities of speculators and hedgers, we find that speculators profit from time series momentum at the expense of hedgers.     

Herstellung von Wettbewerb durch Übertragung der Alterungsrückstellung in der Privaten Krankenversicherung

The system of individual prospective aging reserve enables the insured persons irrespectively of their individual risk to change their Private Health Insurance. Besides the presentation of an implementation concept it is shown that there is no inducement to miscalculate the extent of the individual prospective aging reserve on purpose.     

Further Results on Bayesian Method of Moments Analysis of the Multiple Regression Model

In this article we extend previous BMOM results by showing how information about a variance parameter and its relation to regression coefficients produces a rich class of postdata densities for regression parameters. Prediction and model selection techniques are also described. We also discuss the well-documented link between cross-entropy and the average log odds and then use this criterion in an experiment to compare results obtained from BMOM and Bayes approaches using data generated from known models.